In my first blog entry on the Ray Gricar disappearance, I explained why I became interested in the case; I still get questions about it. I’m originally from the area, and, like Mr. Gricar, I use to be active in local government. I started because I was very much concerned that Mr. Gricar was murdered, and murdered because he was a public official.
I’ve said something else since then. I said that I think that there is a 48% chance that Mr. Gricar left voluntarily; he walked away from his life. Of any of the possibilities, the one that I give greatest likelihood of explaining Mr. Gricar’s disappearance is this one. Okay then, why I’m still writing the blog?
Well, because giving walkaway a 48% chance of explaining this mystery means that I think there is still a 52% chance that the explanation is not walkaway. I’ve seen some circumstantial evidence that Mr. Gricar’s disappearance was because he left voluntarily, but it isn’t overwhelming. I still give the chance that Mr. Gricar was a victim of foul play at 42%.
I’m skeptical by nature, so unless Mr. Gricar shows up, or his body is found, I doubt that I’ll ever be 100% certain of what happened to Mr. Gricar. I’ll settle for another standard, reasonable doubt. I’m hoping to see the kind of proof needed to prove what happened to Mr. Gricar in court. That might be 75%-85% likely. I have seen the kind of where I would be comfortable saying “_______ is the probable explanation for Ray Gricar’s disappearance,” i.e. it is more than 50% likely that one option explains this disappearance.
In all honesty, I think that we can know the probable answer and we may be able to know the answer beyond a reasonable doubt. I’m hoping that by continuing with this blog, I might jar someone’s memory of something, or that someone might read something and connect the dots. I am hoping that by continuing to keep the Gricar case in the public eye, especially in Centre County, that I can help trigger a solution to the mysterious disappearance to Ray Gricar. That is not the prime reason, however.
The prime reason is that 42% chance of foul play. While there are some other things included in foul play, most of it involves homicide. If homicide is the explanation, that means that there is a murderer, out there walking around. The murderer not only managed to kill a “street smart” prosecutor, who was experienced in dealing with criminals, but a reasonably athletic one. The murderer was also bright enough, if not brilliant enough, to hide the body for more than five years. There is probably a 41% chance, at least from what has been published, that this is the explanation for Mr. Gricar’s disappearance. I think that is way too high to be ignored.
If it turns out that Mr. Gricar voluntarily walked away, I will say, “Ray Gricar, I salute you! You are smarter man than I am.” It would be an accomplishment to have vanished so completely. After that, I’d soon end this blog. It is legal to walk away and Mr. Gricar would be entitled to his privacy.
If Mr. Gricar was murdered, I’d want to know who did it. I hope you would want to as well. It isn’t just a matter of justice. It is a matter of safety. Yours. If Mr. Gricar was murdered, that murderer is still out there.
E-mail J. J. in Phila at firstname.lastname@example.org