Special Reports

Odds and Ends

            My fellow blogger, Slamdunk, has been writing about the disappearance of former Centre County District Attorney Ray Gricar since late 2008.  He writes about a number of other things, including other missing person cases.  He also writes on the the police in general, which is his field.  He’s a former police officer and has a master’s degree in the criminal justice field.

            Slamdunk has written 15 blogs to date specifically on the Gricar case; there are some others that are related1.  Prior to the fourth anniversary of Mr. Gricar’s disappearance, in March of 2009, he posted some odds on what happened to Mr. Gricar.  As a result of some newer evidence, he just updated them.  Here are both sets:

March 9, 20091 :

Crime Victim: 46%

Voluntary Disappearance: 44%

Suicide or Other: 10%

April 5, 20101 :

Left Willingly: 49%

Crime Victim: 44%

Suicide or Other: 7%


In 2009, because Slamdunk asked for responses in general, I gave my odds.  I’ll give mine of April 4, 2010 as well:


March 9, 2009 1 :


Voluntary departure: 48%


Murder2: 43%


Suicide 8%


Something else: 1%


April 5, 2010 :

Voluntary departure: 48%


Foul Play2: 42%


Suicide 9%


Something else: 1%


            There is a little bit of daylight between our numbers, both times, but not a lot.  For Slamdunk, the computer searches and a recent comment from incumbent District Attorney Stacy Parks Miller changed the numbers a bit for his “left willingly” numbers.  Not for me.  The first one did make suicide slightly more likely and “Foul Play2slightly less likely in my estimation.  Neither one of us, as of yet, are willing to say that any option is the “likely” explanation, more than 50% likely, for Mr. Gricar’s vanishing.

            If new information comes outs, that might change Slamdunk’s odds and mine.  It might even provide us an end to the case, an answer to the question, “What happened to Mr. Gricar?”

            I’ll once again encourage you to read Slamdunk’s blog, “Slam Dunks.”   It is not just about crime and police work; I read it daily.  It is linked to the right and you can read it here: http://theslamdunktrove.blogspot.com/

End Notes:

1 http://theslamdunktrove.blogspot.com/search/label/Ray%20Gricar

2 I will be using “Foul Play” because it looks at other possible violations of law like manslaughter and abuse of corpse, which is criminal, but not murder.


E-mail J. J. in Phila at scorg@live.com