Later today marks the five year and three month anniversary of the opening of the investigation of the disappearance of former Centre County District Attorney Ray Gricar. We, the general public, and even the police, know more now than we knew then. We don’t have a solution, as of yet.
Over this time, I’ve been occasionally asked what I think the odds were for each of the possibilities. I give those odds based on new evidence or evidence that is at least new to me. In this case, it is that evidence that is new to me, though was out there for a while, that has changed the odds.
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I’ll be discussing that evidence later, in detail. These are just the raw numbers. I will tell you why in the next blog, in excruciating detail, so please hold off on your comments about why until then.
Here are the new odds:
Voluntary Departure (Walkaway): 50% likely.
Victim of Foul Play (Primarily Murder): 41% likely .
Suicide: 8% likely.
Something else : 1% likely.
I’ll say three things about these numbers. Since starting this blog, just under 18 months ago, this is the first time I changed the numbers on Voluntary Departure. I last changed them in late November of 2008. This is also highest I have ever ranked Voluntary Departure (Walkaway). My older numbers are here: Odds and Ends
It is not the lowest that I’ve ever ranked Victim of Foul Play (Murder). I started, in 2006, with each of the three major possibilities as 33%. Soon afterward, I raised both Murder and Walkaway to 40%; later, I moved both to 45% in 2008. Murder, as a possibility, has dropped since 2008, but not by a great amount.
What has dropped was originally what I thought was the most likely, suicide. The current District Attorney, Stacy Parks Miller, has said homicide is the least likely possibility.2 I don’t know if she, and the police, have completely ruled out suicide as a possibility or if there is some unrevealed evidence that would strongly point to suicide. Based on what has been released, however, I do not agree. Of the three major possibilities, I would rank suicide as the least likely explanation for Mr. Gricar’s disappearance.
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