After a wet and cool May, what is the summer weather outlook for Pittsburgh?

When June rolls around, Norman's Orchard in Frazer is usually busy seven days a week.

It's cherry season, bringing in roughly 1,200 customers for the first few weeks of the month. But not this year.

A mere few hours of below-freezing temperatures in late April determined what's shaping up to be a grim summer and fall on the farm.

The hard freeze knocked out all of the orchard's cherries, apples and pears, costing the farm tens of thousands of dollars as it lost out on business generated from those crops.

"There'll be no customers, really," said Jeff Norman, owner of the 58-year-old family farm. "No revenue coming in either."

The same is true for many farmers across Western Pennsylvania, who experienced devastating impacts to their crops as a result of the wet weather and a late spring cold snap.

"It only takes one unfortunate night to ruin a whole year's worth of work," said Ben Reppert, lecturer in the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science at Penn State.

Meteorologists say summer is expected to see near-average temperatures and rainfall, which could help farmers - although for some, it could be too late.

"All of us farmers are rushing like madmen to catch up," said William Thiele of the Pennsylvania Farm Bureau. "Everything is behind."

May in Pittsburgh

May was unusually cold and rainy across Western Pennsylvania, Reppert said.

"Not an ideal situation for growing things or trying to get things ready to grow," he said. "It's already a stressful time, and weather problems only make it more stressful."

The weather also has caused problems for hay production across the region, Thiele said, which can force farmers to sell off some of their livestock as the price of hay could increase.

"That could be detrimental to some farms in the area," he said.

The average temperature for May in Pittsburgh was 58.8 degrees - 2.4 degrees below normal, National Weather Service data shows.

That's in stark contrast to April, which was the warmest on record.

Typically, May is about 10 degrees warmer than April, but this year, average May temperatures were less than 1 degree warmer.

From May 11 through 15, temperatures reached near-freezing several times, causing frost in some areas, said Jason Frazier, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service office in Moon. Temperatures can range from 33 to 36 degrees for a frost to occur. For a freeze, which is the most damaging to plants, air temperatures have to be below 32 degrees.

The region's official climate site at Pittsburgh International Airport recorded 4.3 inches of rain, roughly a half-inch above normal.

A large percentage of that monthly total fell May 24 - 1½ inches during the third wettest Memorial Day weekend on record.

The rain largely dried up for the last few days of the month as temperatures warmed into the 70s.

Still, the persistent rainfall made it difficult for farmers to find windows for planting, said Stephen Campbell, an agronomy educator with Penn State Extension who advises farmers in Armstrong, Butler, Clarion, Indiana and Jefferson counties.

"Farms are a couple of weeks to a month behind," Campbell said. "It's been trying times, but hopefully with this nice stretch of weather we've had, a lot of people will take advantage of it and get caught back up."

The summer ahead

June 1 marks the start of meteorological summer, lasting through the end of August.

Temperatures will be slightly below average to start the month before rising closer to the low to mid-80s later this week, Frazier said. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will return heading into the weekend.

Throughout the summer, temperatures are favored to be slightly above normal, with near-average precipitation, he said. Summer trends show warming of about 0.3 degrees and increases in precipitation of about 0.32 inches per decade since 1950, according to the NWS' summer outlook.

But an El Niño is developing, Reppert said, although the timing is still a question.

El Niño refers to a climate pattern that leads to the warming of the surface of the Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, the Pacific jet stream shifts south and spreads farther to the east.

If the impacts come earlier in the summer, that could mean a cooler and wetter weather pattern in months ahead.

"Early indications are that this summer might not be overly hot, at least over the long haul and more regular opportunities for precipitation," he said.

June's average highs start off around 76 degrees, Frazier said, reaching the lower 80s by the end of the month. Those average high temperatures of about 82 to 83 degrees hold through August as rainfall usually increases throughout the course of the summer.

At this point, he said, there is no clear signal for how the Pittsburgh region might be affected by severe weather over the summer.

Given the challenges farmers faced throughout the spring, the focus over the next few weeks will be on getting their crops into the ground, Reppert said.

However, planting late comes with its own problems. May is a huge planting month statewide, he said, but the weather prevented many farmers from planting as normal.

"The later you plant things, the lower the yields might be, come harvest time," he said. "That's why planting on time is desired."

The calmer weather pattern to start June is giving farmers a period to plant some of the crops they had been waiting on.

For those who make it through the next few weeks, Reppert said this summer could be a welcome relief from the last few years as meteorologists expect more normal conditions.

"There's cause for optimism," he said. "That recipe in and of itself will be beneficial for farmers as we go through the summer."

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