With 2 new COVID-19 cases Friday, how has Centre County fared since it started reopening?
Centre County’s rate of new COVID-19 cases in the two weeks since the stay-at-home order was lifted is about half of what it was in the two weeks prior.
About 25 new cases per 100,000 were reported from April 24 through May 7 in Centre County, according to data provided by the state Health Department.
Gov. Tom Wolf removed his stay-at-home order May 8, and also allowed retail businesses and child care facilities to at least partially reopen as part of the “yellow phase” in his three-phase plan.
About 13 new cases per 100,000 have been reported in the two weeks since, according to the DOH’s statistics.
Two new cases were reported Friday, bringing the county’s total to 138 since March 20. At least 30 cases have been reported across three nursing or personal care facilities in Centre County. Five deaths have been reported since April 16.
Gov. Tom Wolf announced Friday that 17 counties can move into the “green phase.” He told reporters Friday afternoon that county officials requested the county be kept in the yellow phase.
The transition from red to yellow was seemingly done at a “safe point for our community,” said Matthew Ferrari, an associate professor of biology at the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Penn State.
That doesn’t mean Centre County is in the clear, Ferrari said.
“What we’ve seen throughout this (pan)demic is that changes in the epidemiology or changes in the numbers that we can see based on case reporting oftentimes are lagging decision points by about two weeks,” Ferrari said. “What we’re really looking forward to is the next two weeks to say if we’re still on the decline.”
The metric is just one of several that Wolf’s administration is using to guide its decisions. Others include testing capabilities, contact tracing and implementing safeguards in high-risk settings.
There are 66,258 cases of the new coronavirus in Pennsylvania as of noon Friday, an increase of 866 since noon Thursday. It is the 12th consecutive day that single-day increases have been below 1,000.
If public health guidelines are followed, it would be reasonable to expect Centre County’s rate to continue to decline. But “humans are complicated beasts” and it’s possible those trends reverse, Ferrari said.
“A lot of what we saw when this outbreak was taking off was driven by the virus. We needed to learn about the virus, how it spread and how fast it spread,” Ferrari said Thursday. “Everything we’re seeing from now forward is going to be a combination of the virus and human behavior, and that’s a really hard thing to predict.”
Residents of long-term care homes account for about two-thirds of the statewide death toll of nearly 5,000. An additional 115 deaths were reported Friday.
About 57% of COVID-19 patients have recovered, according to the DOH. The case is counted as a recovery if a death was not reported and is more than 30 days past the date of a positive test.
About 1,900 Centre County residents have been tested as of Friday. About 7% have tested positive, according to the DOH.
Effectively communicating the dangers of something that isn’t perceptible can be challenging, but Ferrari likened Centre County’s situation to a leg injury for a runner.
“If you desperately want to go running again, start to feel good and start running again, you’re just gonna reaggravate that and you’re gonna end up not running for even longer,” Ferrari said. “... That’s the situation we’re in right now. The population is getting healthier, but we’ve got to do that annoying thing where we have to wait an extra couple of weeks ... to make sure that we’re really healthy enough.”
In Centre County, here’s the breakdown by ZIP code (those without cases are not listed):
- 16823 (Bellefonte, Milesburg and Pleasant Gap): 39
16801 (State College): 31
16803 (State College): 21
16827 (Boalsburg): 9
- 16870 (Port Matilda): 8
16866, 16686, 16844, 16828, 16852, 16822: 1-4 cases each (Specific numbers are not available)
According to the state’s hospital preparedness dashboard, 1,619 Pennsylvanians are hospitalized and receiving treatment for the coronavirus.
Anyone who believes they came into contact with someone who might have the coronavirus is advised to monitor their health and call their primary care provider if they develop symptoms, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Symptoms include cough, fever and shortness of breath. Symptoms can appear in as few as two days or as long as 14 days after exposure.
Those who believe they might be sick are encouraged to stay at home except to get medical care. Residents are also urged to call their health care provider before visiting. And those who do venture outside are urged to wear masks.
“What we’re seeing is exactly what we hoped to see and that’s fantastic. I think that’s a testament to our community acting in its own best interest,” Ferrari said. “... A lot of people are harmed by this both directly and indirectly. Seeing the trends that we want as a result of our response is a positive, and we need to keep that mentality as we move to resolve the cultural and economic disruptions that we’ve had as a consequence of this.”
This story was originally published May 22, 2020 at 12:16 PM.