Concerned but not panicked: Making sense of Centre County’s recent rise in COVID-19 cases
Centre County has seen a significant rise in COVID-19 cases the past two weeks — 93 cases in total — that has concerned some officials while others have cautioned it’s not yet time to panic.
On the surface, the increase has been dramatic. Centre County averaged about 40 biweekly cases between May and July, before more than doubling that in this past 14-day period with the reopening of Penn State. But, officials said, looking at those numbers alone doesn’t offer a complete picture.
It doesn’t take into account Penn State testing asymptomatic cases, meaning those who show no outward signs of infection and wouldn’t have been tested in the county otherwise. And it doesn’t show that a majority of cases appear to be mild or asymptomatic, meaning little to no additional stress has been placed on Mount Nittany Medical Center.
However, it does appear to show Centre County residents now have higher odds of infection, since there are more overall cases, especially in State College. According to the state Department of Health, the State College area — ZIP codes 16801, 16802 and 16803 — has seen at least 60 confirmed cases over the past two weeks.
“This is exactly what we were afraid of,” State College Borough Council President Jesse Barlow said.
Based on recent — but not updated — data, Centre County hasn’t yet sounded alarm bells to the state Department of Health. But there are caveats to those numbers.
According to Carnegie Mellon’s risk-based weekly report, released through the governor’s office, Centre County still largely remains in the low- to moderate-risk category. And, according to the state’s early warning monitoring system, Centre County remains well within the key metric of having 5% or fewer tests come back positive.
Still, there are two issues to those reports. For one, both reports were published before the weekend — and Centre County experienced 44 positive cases from Saturday though Monday, per the state DOH. Another issue: Centre County’s weekly positive test rate of 1.5% is artificially low because it includes Penn State’s large number of asymptomatic tests that generally come back negative. (Penn State’s symptomatic positive test rate was 11.2% from Aug. 21-27; its asymptomatic test rate was 0.5%.)
County Commissioner Mike Pipe said that positive rate discrepancy is something officials have been aware of, and both he and a borough spokesperson added that the state Department of Health, university and other community stakeholders have a call at least once a week to discuss COVID-19’s local impact.
“We were anticipating there would be an increase in cases as our population increased; that was certainly expected,” Pipe said. “The four metrics we are still looking at, and we know the governor’s office and Department of Health are looking at, are case counts, hospital utilization, testing capacity and the contact tracing.”
He added, “There isn’t cause right now for panic. But, again, it’s important to keep monitoring.”
A spokesperson at Mount Nittany confirmed there are just three COVID-19-positive inpatients at the hospital. A Penn State spokesperson reiterated the university continues to share data with several state departments while consulting with a number of experts.
“We must remain, and are remaining, vigilant, and we need everyone on our campus and in our community to take personal measures to slow the spread of the virus, including wearing face masks, practicing social distancing and avoiding large gatherings,” spokesperson Wyatt DuBois said in an email.
Another spokesperson, from the state Department of Health, explained the county’s color-coded reopening system — green, yellow, red — has been discontinued in favor of “targeted, surgical measures” to reduce the spread of the virus.
It’s unclear what Penn State’s next step might be. Even if cases continue to climb, it’s unknown if students would still be sent home. Bloomberg reported Sunday that a growing consensus is building among public health experts to keep students on campus after an outbreak; sending them home could just increase the spread, they suggested.
A Pennsylvania DOH spokesperson did not answer directly when asked what the department’s stance is on such measures.
“The department continues to work with congregate locations, such as colleges, employers, congregate care facilities, etc., to assist them as they make decisions regarding COVID-19 and how to best protect Pennsylvanians,” spokesperson Nate Wardle said in a written statement.
Based on data from the DOH, Centre County has had 486 positive cases of COVID-19 — 440 confirmed, 46 probable — since experiencing its first case around March 20.
There were 129 cases in August.
This story was originally published August 31, 2020 at 6:07 PM.
