What you should know about the U.K. variant of COVID-19, and why it might be in Centre County already
If the more infectious U.K. variant of COVID-19 isn’t already in Centre County, then it almost certainly will be soon, according to several experts at the state and national level.
The variant — which one recent study suggests is 50% more transmissible than the current version of the new coronavirus — is still shrouded in many unknowns. But it’s widely believed at this early point that the variant does not cause a more severe form of COVID-19 and the vaccine should remain effective against it.
The main difference is simply that it is significantly more infectious, with the potential to further burden the health care system and become this country’s predominant version of COVID-19. It has already arrived in Pennsylvania, with the commonwealth’s first case identified Jan. 7 in Dauphin County, less than a two-hour drive from Happy Valley.
“We suspect, looking backward, we’re going to to learn that we’ve had it here for at least a couple weeks,” said Dr. Susan Coffin, an attending physician for the Division of Infectious Diseases at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia.
Both the county and the country have endured COVID outbreaks, cases and deaths that have rankled the community. But the start of vaccination programs does not mean the battle against the pandemic is ending; another expert told the Centre Daily Times it’s now a “race against time” before COVID spread worsens as a result of this variant.
Even Mount Nittany Medical Center acknowledged it is keeping a close eye on the variant, known scientifically as B.1.1.7.
“As with any new information regarding COVID-19, we are closely monitoring news and information on the variant being referred to as the U.K. strain of the virus,” said Dr. Nirmal Joshi, chief medical officer of Mount Nittany Health.
Local & national spread
One national expert, based out of the University of Washington, told the CDT it would be reasonable to assume the variant has already spread around Pennsylvania.
Dr. Ali Mokdad, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s chief strategy officer of population health, said last week that the only way to confirm the presence of the variant is through expensive genetic testing of the virus — an area where the U.S. is sorely lacking. And the Pennsylvania Department of Health acknowledged two weeks ago that it has been performing only 10-35 such tests biweekly, via the the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, since November.
“The fact we’re finding it among people who’ve never traveled to the U.K. or never came in contact with somebody who was directly in the U.K. means it has been spreading here (in the U.S.) for a while,” Mokdad said.
Mokdad said Wednesday that he believed the U.K. variant would become the predominant version in the U.S. in a matter of months. On Friday, the CDC released a study that suggested the variant would become the predominant one by March.
This is all despite private-sector data that suggests the U.K. variant currently accounts for just 0.5% of all new infections nationally.
“There’s hotspots in Southern California and Florida that may be closer to 1%, but it’s going to double every week,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, said Sunday on CBS’ Face the Nation. “So it’s 1% now. It’ll be 2%, then 4%, then 8% percent, then 16% , then 32%. So in about five weeks, this is going to start to take over.”
That doesn’t necessarily mean the U.K. variant will entirely replace the current one, the “European variant” known as D614G. Coffin said it’s possible there could be pockets of infection across the U.S., while some communities could remain safe if they’re isolated or take extreme care when it comes to mitigation.
But if there’s a lot of people and/or a lot of travel, Coffin said, that could spell trouble.
When asked specifically about Centre County, and the odds the variant was already here, Coffin declined to speculate. But she was quick to add she assumes travel is high in the county, due at least in part to Penn State.
“We really have to commit to ongoing prevention,” she added. “Sadly, we are not yet at a place with vaccinations where we can loosen up and be a little more lax in our behavior.”
Vaccine/treatment
If there is a silver lining to the variant, it’s that observations so far suggest both the current vaccines and treatments will continue to work on it.
According to Coffin, preliminary data shows the antibodies stimulated by the vaccine bind equally as well to both the old variant and the new, leading many to believe the vaccine will remain effective. Joshi and Mokdad agreed.
“Obviously, we need a lot more data around the vaccine and the vaccine-induced immunity,” Coffin added. “But those are the data that have provided me a little bit of reassurance that the vaccine is most likely to protect against this variant as well.”
Mokdad said the lingering question about the vaccine is mainly, It works on the variant — but how much will it work? Mokdad said it’s not yet confirmed whether the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine will remain 95% effective against the U.K. version, for example.
Still, despite the unknown, Mokdad wasn’t projecting any doomsday scenarios with this variant. He said the vaccine can be tweaked to account for changes, much like the flu vaccine, but it will simply take some time before scientists understand the full effects of the variant.
Added Joshi: “The DOH has also stated that it has no reason to believe COVID-19 vaccines would be any less effective with this (variant) than it is with others.”
According to the latest data aggregated by USA Today, and based on the CDC, about 3.2% of the U.S. population has so far received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. In Pennsylvania, that number dips to 3%.
The fear moving forward
There are tens of thousands of variants and mutations of COVID-19, the experts said. Mokdad has been describing the rise of variants such as the U.K. one for months; Coffin said such mutations couldn’t have been less surprising.
“A majority of these changes are meaningless differences,” Coffin added. “They’re so subtle and not connected to any functional change in the way the virus behaves that they’re kind of inconsequential.”
The fear moving forward, at least for Mokdad, isn’t necessarily from the U.K. variant. It’s from other variants that have the potential to be deadlier, or immune from the vaccine. Already, there are at least two other variants that have gained worldwide attention — a South Africa variant and a Brazil variant — that have not yet shown up in the U.S.
Less is known about those variants than the U.K. one. But, with the Brazil variant, experts in one Brazilian city said it’s possible that the variant there could lead to easier reinfection, as it appears to elude the human immune response from past infections. With the South Africa variant, some mutations have been shown to reduce how well certain antibodies fight the virus.
It’s not yet known how transmissible those variants are, or even if they could eventually overtake the U.K. variant. But the main concern is one variant will eventually rise that is immune to the vaccine, one that might force scientists to essentially start over.
“We shouldn’t be surprised,” Mokdad said. “The virus is fighting for its survival and is adapting to the environment to be more transmissible and survive for a longer time. That’s in its DNA makeup.
“All of us humans want to survive, and that’s what the virus has done.”
What should you do?
Coffin, Joshi and Mokdad all shared the same concern: People are tired of COVID-19 — but the virus isn’t tired of them.
Centre County, and the rest of the U.S., experienced a predictable spike in cases after Thanksgiving when families refused to social distance. Plenty of residents still eschew masks inside local gas stations. And there are people — still — who deny the virus even exists.
“None of the variants are going to come to you if you don’t invite them,” Mokdad added.
There’s nothing different residents have to do to avoid the U.K. variant. It just reinforces the importance of the three steps everyone already knows: Wear a mask, social distance, and wash your hands.
“There is still much to learn about this new variant, so we need to remain vigilant and continue to urge Pennsylvanians to stop the spread by washing their hands, practicing social distancing, avoiding gatherings, downloading COVID Alert PA and answering the call,” Pennsylvania Secretary of Health Dr. Rachel Levine said in a written statement. “Stay calm, stay alert and stay safe.”
From March through August, Centre County experienced fewer than 500 cases of COVID-19. From September until now, there have been more than 9,500 additional cases.
Maybe the worst is still over. But experts said you shouldn’t bet your health on it.
“These safety measures are the single best thing we can do to mitigate the virus, no matter the (variant),” Joshi said.
Added Coffin: “Digging deep and and finding the will to continue to commit to prevention is essential.”
