Housing affordability is decreasing in parts of Centre County. See the data
Home prices are up, wages are flat and — depending on where you live in Centre County — housing costs are have crept upward.
A Centre Daily Times analysis of recent housing data shows that the housing affordability issue spoken about by seemingly every politician exists in Centre County, but the severity varies by locality.
Countywide, the cost of purchasing a home is rising at a far faster rate than wages over the past decade, according to data from the Realtor.com, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average wages have flattened in Centre County since 2022, while they have steadily risen across the state and nation.
Average sticker price of a home is a bit more than double what it was in January 2017, while the average wage is 20% higher.
Averages are more susceptible to influence by extreme values, especially in smaller datasets. In Centre County, skyrocketing homes outside of State College and low wages earned by student workers can impact the figures, for example.
Localized data is harder to come by, but the 2024 American Community Survey released in January by the U.S. Census Bureau also shows median home values outpacing median household income, though by how much depends on the locality. The Centre Daily Times analyzed the data by region, defined in this map:
Homes have become slightly more accessible in the Lower Bald Eagle Valley over the past 15 or so years, according to Census data, with homes in the Upper Bald Eagle Valley, Moshannon Valley and Mountaintop regions rounding out the four areas where home values are generally within historical standards for affordability: three times the median income or less.
The same cannot be said for Centre County’s southeastern half, the Nittany Valley, Penns Valley and Centre Region. The barrier of entry to homeownership rose in all but two of the 18 municipalities included in the regions, and only Miles Township was below that three-times-the-income mark.
That chart did not include student-heavy State College, an outlier among Centre County municipalities for relative home costs. The chart below includes it.
The share of homeowners considered cost-burdened — that is, they spend more than 30% of their income on housing costs — rose modestly from the 2019 American Community Survey, the opposite of statewide and national trends. The share of burdened homeowners increased by three percentage points in the Lower Bald Eagle Valley, two in the Nittany Valley and less than one in the Centre Region and Penns Valley.
Penn Township and Bellefonte saw the greatest average increase in burdened homeowners, both rising over eight percentage points in the past 15 or so years to over a quarter of homeowners.
The share of burdened homeowners in Upper Lower Bald Eagle Valley, Moshannon Valley and Mountaintop regions decreased in both of the most recent surveys analyzed.
The share of burdened renters in Centre County rose minimally — 0.4 percentage points – from the 2019 American Community Survey. Increases between nine and 13 points occurred in the Lower Bald Eagle Valley, Upper Bald Eagle Valley, Penns Valley and Mountaintop regions, but those increases were cancelled out by drops elsewhere, including the high-population Centre Region.
The percentage of county households considered severely rent burdened, or who spend more than half of their income on rent has moved every so slightly downward over the past 15 year. About a third of Centre County households are severely rent burdened, 10 points higher than the state and nation.
On the bright side, the portion of the population at or near the poverty rate has decreased, or increased only marginally, in all regions. A quarter of the Centre Region is considered at or near the poverty rate, in large part due to State College (the vast majority of those considered at or near poverty in State College worked less than full-time, likely reflecting the student population).
The at-or-near-poverty level population increased the most in Walker Township (about 6% on average since the 2014 American Survey), and decreased the most in State College (13% on average).
