Penn State study: Spotted lanternfly spread could cost Pa. $324 million, thousands of jobs
Invasive spotted lanternflies could cost Pennsylvania’s economy at least $324 million and 2,800 jobs in crop-producing sectors of the state, according to a new study from Penn State’s College of Agricultural Sciences.
Using data from crop production experts, government reports, industry surveys and interviews with researchers, educators and stakeholders, a team of Penn State researchers evaluated how the spread of the invasive pest would directly impact crops and lower revenue, creating a domino effect of less household spending and income.
According to the data, a worse-case scenario could lead to losses of $554 million annually and 5,000 jobs.
The spotted lanternfly, an invasive pest native to Asia, was found in Berks County in 2014. Since then, it has spread to 14 other counties in southeastern Pennsylvania, all of which are now under a state quarantine.
“Even if the worst-case scenario doesn’t come to pass, the spotted lanternfly already has inflicted millions of dollars in damage to our state’s agriculture and forestry industries,” Jayson Harper, professor of agricultural economics and director of Penn State’s Fruit Research and Extension Center, said in a departmental release.
A team made up of Harper, Timothy Kelsey, agricultural economics professor and co-director of the center for Economic and Community Development, Lynn Kime, senior extension associate, and William Stone, an undergraduate student studying community, environment and development, conducted the study, which published in December.
Researchers modeled their predictions based on three situations: whether the spotted lanternfly remains quarantined in the 14 counties, if it spreads to counties directly neighboring the quarantine zone and if it reaches all 67 counties in the state.
Already, spotted lanternflies have caused about $50.1 million annually in economic losses and about 484 job losses in the quarantine zone, researchers estimate. In a worst-case scenario, quarantine zone losses could rise to $92.8 million a year and 927 jobs.
If the invasive pest spreads to the surrounding counties, losses could increase to $324.9 million per year and 2,810 jobs. Researchers used data from the USDA’s 2017 Census of Agriculture and a survey of crop-production experts to determine estimates and calculate direct impacts of the spotted lanternfly.
Agricultural sectors hit hardest by the spotted lanternfly are nursery operators, fruit — especially grapes — growers and Christmas tree growers.
Nursery operators have already faced a loss of $8 million in the quarantine zone and $22.9 million statewide, while impact to the forest products industry is about $16.7 million, an additional $15.6 million in neighboring counties and $152.6 million statewide. Researchers used data from the USDA’s Forest Inventory and Analysis database, quarterly price data from the Pennsylvania Timber Market Report and a survey of forest-products experts to determine direct impact on the forest products industry.
In addition to examining direct and indirect impacts of the spotted lanternfly and its possible spread, the study looked at the cost to deploy best management practices, including employee education, pest monitoring and inspection, pest prevention in nurseries and removal of tree of heaven, a preferred host of the spotted lanternfly. Cost estimates range from $27.9 million in the quarantine zone to $219.6 million statewide, depending on industry and geographic location.
“The potential spread of this pest argues for the continuance of existing programs, the strengthening of research and management efforts, and additional funding,” Kelsey said in the news release.
The Center for Rural Pennsylvania funded the study, which can be found on the center’s website at www.rural.palegislature.us/documents/reports/Spotted-Lanternfly-2019.pdf.
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