Ahead of Penn State’s reopening, here’s a look at some of the COVID-19 research taking place

The countdown until Penn State students return to campus is quickly dwindling, but Penn State researchers have been working for months on new tools to better understand the spread of the novel coronavirus.

One of these tools is a simulation model of the spread of coronavirus that can be applied to different locations across Pennsylvania. It will be able to predict real-time positions of infected individuals in specific geographical areas in order to analyze possible scenarios where the virus could spread.

Another is an artificial intelligence tool that helps determine how testing sites and coronavirus resources should be distributed across Pennsylvania.

Hui Yang, director of Penn State National Science Foundation’s Center for Health Organization Transformation and associate professor of industrial and manufacturing engineering, has been working with university leadership on these projects to advise on campus reopening policies for University Park and the commonwealth campuses since March.

“We run optimization algorithms to make sure we have equitable and accessible allocation of resources including mobile testing centers, masks and medical supplies to make sure each region gets their fair share based on population,” Yang said. “The simulation model on the other hand (studies) the transmission risks in different regions in Pennsylvania.”

As system engineers, Yang and his team’s research helps “complement” the medical approach and helps policy-makers make better policies in the future.

“(We are) able to implement policies and see which is more effective with a simulation model for the spread of coronavirus,” Yang said. “How can we learn from this kind of pandemic and how can we develop a better system approach to help in the future?”

Yang has had help from numerous undergraduate and graduate researchers to help develop tools through CHOT.

One of those graduate students is Marta Ventura, studying industrial engineering and operations research as a third-year Ph.D. student at Penn State. She’s responsible for studying disease progression over time through Penn State CHOT.

“I look at different covariants, documenting quarantine and movement, socioeconomic factors and demographic factors to predict the geographic spread of COVID-19,” Ventura said. “It gives us insight into the magnitude of the crisis and how the limited resources in Pennsylvania should be distributed in order to make quick decisions with certain information in an optimal way.”

Yidan Wang, a first-year Ph.D. student in industrial engineering at Penn State, has also been working on the simulation model of the coronavirus through Penn State CHOT.

“I simulate how people move in their daily lives in a specific area, like in Centre County,” Wang said. “The spread rates of the virus will change if we do enough pharmaceutical measures, personal protective measures and conduct self quarantine.”

Yunfeng Shi, assistant professor in the department of health policy and administration at Penn State, explained how, through Penn State CHOT’s simulation modeling, he has been working to analyze COVID-19’s effect on Centre County.

“(We can put parameters such as) social distancing, working remotely and local and regional health resources in the simulation model,” Shi said. “We can simulate the scenarios of any kind of region including Penn State’s campus.”

Shi said the model is not 100% accurate, but engineers have been trying to make it as realistic as possible.

One of the challenges of researching during the pandemic, Shi said, is the lack of in-person discussion.

“I haven’t met Dr. Yang and Dr. DeFlitch,” Shi said, even though they have weekly conference calls discussing progress. “Not being able to talk in person and interact frequently has had a negative impact for me in research.”

Dr. Chris DeFlitch, chief medical information officer for Penn State health, and professor in the College of Medicine at Penn State, helped form Penn State CHOT around 10 years ago and is now the co-director.

While he is working with Yang to develop the tiered simulation models for contact tracing and spread, he is also involved in various other coronavirus-related projects.

His initial work with the College of Medicine involved looking at contact and contact tracing to determine how the virus travels.

“We want to try to understand what the potential is as we see increasing volume in Centre County,” DeFlitch said about Penn State’s fall return to campus. “There’s always an increased risk when you have an increasing number of people congregating within three feet of each other and without wearing the protective mask.”

As co-leader of the university’s public health and sciences task group that is advising Penn State President Eric Barron on reopening decisions, Dennis Scanlon, distinguished professor of health policy and administration, is directly involved with the university’s reopening.

“(We’re) trying to help navigate this tricky puzzle of (having) some semblance of a return to study for students,” Scanlon said. “Can we return employees to their jobs so they can continue to earn an income for their family?”

He has been looking at different segments of the population to determine which people fit into what groups.

“(We’re) trying to better estimate who’s most at risk and who’s least at risk,” Scanlon said. “If (we) can do that, we can better segment the population.”

He is also helping Yang with Penn State CHOT’s simulation modeling.

“What worries us and keeps us up at night is knowing that there’s no cure or vaccine,” Scanlon said. “We’re trying to balance that and minimize the risk.”

DeFlitch said he’s confident in Penn State’s ability to safely reopen next month.

“It’s been great to see all the different talents of the university come together in their own areas to support what the commonwealth of Pennsylvania needs,” DeFlitch said. “There really is something about the Penn State family that comes together whenever need be.”