How will Penn State, youth vote impact the presidential election? Here’s what students, polls say
Jacob Klipstein, a Penn State senior, knows what’s at stake in this election — so he couldn’t wait to vote.
In fact, in early October, on the first day the Bryce Jordan Center was designated as a satellite elections office, he stopped in with a handful of friends to drop off his ballot. He was officially the second Penn State student to vote at the polling place — only because one of his friend’s ballots was processed just a few seconds earlier.
“There’s just so much at stake, including the Supreme Court, that it was too important to not vote,” said Klipstein, 21, president of the College Democrats and a representative for the undergraduate student government. “It’s just too important for too many people.”
Both nationwide and in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, the youth vote is expected to be an important one. In the 2016 presidential election, a poll conducted by Harvard’s Institute of Politics found that 47% of 18- to 29-year-olds said they would vote — and 48% of college students eventually did. In 2020, just last week, a similar poll conducted by Harvard found 63% in that same demographic “definitely” intended to vote.
That mirrors an unrelated Knight Foundation poll from August, which found 71% of college students plan to vote in this election.
“Actually, I’d hoped to see it a lot higher,” said Morgan Watt, a 19-year-old sophomore and vice president of Penn State’s College Republicans. “I know voter turnout by college students was really low in 2016 but, as a whole, the country is really pushing to get out and vote this year, and especially at Penn State.
“It surprises me the number (71%) isn’t higher this year. But I think we’re on our way to getting more college students to vote.”
In some ways, a larger college student vote has been a long time coming. Their turnout in the 2018 midterms — 40.3% of 10 million students tracked by Tufts University — was more than double the rate of the 2014 midterms. And many college students find the social issues they hold most dear, like LGBTQ rights, on the ballot again this year.
“I don’t think the rise is particularly surprising,” added Alex Zhao, 30, a graduate student and president of the Graduate & Professional Student Association. “All college students at some level would’ve come of age in high school or college during this presidency, and I think that’s driven them to vote more.”
Whatever the reason, college students in many states are clearly voting at higher rates in this election. According to research by Tufts University, the state of Texas has already seen just over 1 million votes cast by 18- to 29-year-olds — compared to the 1.2 million total votes cast by that same group in 2016. In Pennsylvania, those numbers aren’t nearly as stark, but 226,900 in that demographic already cast their votes a week before Election Day — about 25% of the total from 2016.
It’s difficult to project just how many Penn State students might vote in this election. Centre County commissioner Mike Pipe attributed a decrease in on-campus student registrations — from about 12,000 in 2016 to about 10,000 now — to the impact of the pandemic, including the simple fact fewer students are currently in Happy Valley. Pipe, along with several students, also pointed out that many likely remained registered in their hometowns.
But, anecdotally, students are still expecting their peers to turn out in record numbers.
“I would say 90% of the students I talked to have voted or have a plan to vote,” Klipstein added. “I think the last four years have taken a lot out of people.”
It’s not yet known just how big the impact of the college voter turnout might be, both nationally and statewide. But the youth vote has the potential to be big: Donald Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by less than 45,000 votes, and there are about 1.5 million registered voters aged 18-29 in the commonwealth.
The importance of Pennsylvania, to both campaigns, cannot be understated. The New York Times ran a story last week titled, in part, “The Election May Hinge on Pennsylvania.” NBC Philadelphia ran a similar story with the headline, “Young Pa. Voters May Be Decisive in Close Race.”
“The youth vote is within the margin of victory,” said Larissa Sweitzer, state director at NextGen Pennsylvania, a youth vote organization led by young people. “Because we know that Donald Trump won by less than 1% in Pennsylvania, if they (youth) are able to turn out in record numbers, they can surpass that.”
Based on numerous polling data, younger voters tend to support Joe Biden over Trump. In a recent Forbes Under 30 Voter Survey, 59% of young voters backed Biden compared to 37% for Trump in a two-way race, meaning a record youth turnout almost certainly benefits Biden.
Watt, a Republican who favors the economy, and Klipstein — a Democrat focused on the COVID-19 response — both have different ideas for what’s best for the country. But they both hope their peers make their voices heard by Tuesday.
In some ways, with so much at stake, a large youth turnout feels as if it’s now or never.
“I definitely think this is the election,” Watt said. “I know College Republicans and Democrats alike are taking this really seriously.”
