RFK Jr. suspends campaign, says he will ‘throw my support’ to Trump. What’s the impact?

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has suspended his long-shot campaign — saying he will push to remove himself from the ballot in “about ten” swing states — in an Aug. 23 press conference in Arizona, a move that shakes up the race for the White House.

“In my heart, I no longer believe that I have a realistic path to electoral victory,” Kennedy said, blaming “relentless, systematic censorship and media control.”

“I am suspending my campaign activities…and now (will) throw my support to President Trump,” he said, adding that his name will remain on the ballot in other states.

On his decision to back Trump, Kennedy cited, among other things, the former president’s declared intention to swiftly end the war in Ukraine, saying “this alone would justify my support for his campaign.”

His announcement concludes his 16-month-long quest for the presidency, in which he switched from running as a Democrat to an independent.

His platform largely focused on ending what he called the corporate takeover of government, reducing America’s military presence overseas and tackling the affordability crisis.

The suspension of his campaign comes as his support dramatically dwindled in recent months, according to polls.

“Kennedy has been in a rapid spiral downward,” Tim Malloy, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac University, told McClatchy News. “He was a factor at 13 percent early in the summer. Our latest (poll) has him at 4 percent.”

A boost for Trump?

Kennedy’s campaign suspension and subsequent endorsement could potentially boost support for Trump, though it’s difficult to measure the exact effect of his exit at this stage, according to political experts.

In order to explain this ambiguity, it’s helpful to take a look at how his support in the polls has shifted over time.

“The story arc of Kennedy’s polling seems to be that he was initially pulling voters from both (President Joe) Biden and Trump, meaning it wasn’t clear what his potential ‘spoiler’ effect might be,” Dan Mallinson, a professor of public policy and administration at Pennsylvania State University at Harrisburg, told McClatchy News.

But, when Biden withdrew from the race on July 21 and Vice President Kamala Harris replaced him, there was a shift.

Polls taken after Biden bowed out suggested that Harris had attracted some of Kennedy’s supporters into her camp — supporters who were disillusioned with Biden, Mallinson said.

Now, polls show that Kennedy’s “candidacy would take more votes away from Trump than from Harris,” Paul Beck, an emeritus professor of political science at the Ohio State University, told McClatchy News.

So, Kennedy’s exit from the race may have a “net marginal benefit for Trump,” Beck said.

A Cook Political Report poll conducted after Biden withdrew appears to bear this out, showing Republicans increasing their margins in four out of seven swing states in a two-way match-up without Kennedy, according to former pollster Adam Carlson.

However, parsing Kennedy’s support in the polls is a difficult business, Chris Edelson, professor of government at American University, told McClatchy News.

“And of course, Kennedy is now polling so low, that it’s even harder to say,” Edelson said.

How big of a difference will it make?

It’s not clear how big of a difference Kennedy’s decision to suspend his campaign and endorsement will make, though it would likely be marginal, experts said.

“My best estimate, of course it’s very speculative, is that it will have a very small impact,” Edelson said.

Kennedy’s announcement likely won’t have an impact on the ultimate outcome, Robert Speel, a political science professor at Penn State Behrend, told McClatchy News.

Though, he said, it could sway around 1% of the electorate to consider voting for the former president.

“Still in a close election, even 1% can make a difference,” Beck said.

Echoing this sentiment, W. Joseph Campbell, a professor emeritus at American University, told McClatchy News, “it may not take much to make a difference in what promises to be a close election.”

Kennedy’s exit and endorsement could particularly be a factor in swing states, Mallinson said.

It could be “a big deal in Pennsylvania where the last two elections (2016 and 2020) were very close and this year’s vote will likely be close again,” Mallinson said.

The timing of his announcement — one day after Harris’ speech at the Democratic National Convention as she finds momentum in the polls — may be significant as well.

“Kennedy’s endorsement could (also) give Trump and his campaign an emotional lift, which it might need given the rejuvenated spirits among Democrats,” Campbell said.

This story was originally published August 23, 2024 at 3:14 PM with the headline "RFK Jr. suspends campaign, says he will ‘throw my support’ to Trump. What’s the impact?."