Poll: Republicans Hilton, Bianco lead California governor's race following Swalwell's exit, Becerra sees surge in support

In the first poll since Eric Swalwell's political collapse and exit from the California governor's race, two Republicans - former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco - lead the pack, while former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra has seen a surge in support, signaling a potential shake up in the crowded contest.

The survey, which was conducted April 14 and 15 by Emerson College Polling, decides the field of candidates appearing at next week's Inside California Politics governor's debate. The show's parent company, Nexstar Media Group, has said it will use a 5% support threshold as the cutoff, meaning that the debate stage is likely to consist of Hilton (16.6%), Bianco (14.4%), billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer (14.1%), Becerra (10.4%), former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter (10.3%), and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (5.4%).

Swalwell, who led Emerson's last poll in March, withdrew from the race on Sunday following allegations of sexual misconduct, which he has sharply denied. He resigned from his East Bay seat on Tuesday as a fifth woman came forward, alleging the embattled politician drugged and raped her in 2018.

Questions have swirled about where Swalwell's Democratic voters will go - polls have shown his base was made up of older, white, Bay Area liberals. Thursday's survey of 1,000 likely primary voters offered the first look of the newly shaped contest.

"In the first Emerson poll since Eric Swalwell's departure from the race for Governor, Democrats now split their vote between Tom Steyer (20%), Xavier Becerra (19%), and Katie Porter (15%), with Becerra gaining 15 points among Democrats without Swalwell on the ballot," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a news release about the poll.

Hilton and Bianco continue to split the Republican vote - even following President Donald Trump's endorsement of the former Fox News host - with 45% supporting Hilton and 40% supporting Bianco. 23% of voters still remain undecided just several weeks from when ballots are expected to arrive in mailboxes.

Becerra, who served as California's attorney general from 2017 to 2021, saw the most dramatic change in the recent Emerson poll. His support in the last five polls had dropped from 5% to 3%, but amid Swalwell's exit, he said in an April 14 social media post that his campaign had raised nearly $400,000 in the prior days, with the average donation size $42.

Michael Bustamante, the senior advisor to the campaign, said in a news release that "Becerra's momentum is clear: strong increases in the polls, significant fundraising for small and medium-sized donors and a massive increase in social media interaction."

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (2.5%), former state Controller Betty Yee (1.4%) and state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond (1%) rounded out the bottom of the poll. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Because of California's filing deadline, Swalwell's name will still remain on the ballot, and he is likely to still pick up some votes, political experts say. Camille Mumford, a spokesperson for Emerson College Polling, said they didn't include his name on the most recent poll since it was being used a qualifier for the April 22 debate, however, the nonpartisan organization will include him in their final poll next month.

The primary for the California governor's race will be held on June 2, with the top two vote-getters, regardless of political party, advancing to the November runoff.

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This story was originally published April 16, 2026 at 12:51 PM.