Democrats' Chances of Winning Virginia Redistricting Battle-Polls
Polls point to a close race ahead of the special election for Virginia voters to decide on a redistricting referendum that would allow new maps favoring Democrats to go into effect ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
The election is set to be held on Tuesday, April 21, and the outcome could have major implications for Democrats' chances of winning a majority of seats in the House of Representatives in the midterms. If the referendum passes, Democrats could gain up to four additional seats in the midterms.
Newsweek reached out to the Virginia Democratic and Republican parties for comment.
Why It Matters
The 2026 midterms have been upended by a redistricting arms race between Democrats and Republicans that began after Texas made the rare move to redraw its maps mid-decade to create more districts with a Republican lean. Democrats in California responded by redrawing their map to draw out several Republican-leaning seats.
Missouri and North Carolina also redrew their maps to favor Republicans, with Democrats potentially losing one seat in each of those states. Ohio and Utah were also required to redistrict via court orders, rather than for partisan reasons.
Virginia Democrats have sought to redraw their map to further neutralize Republican gains in conservative states. The upcoming referendum will determine whether that effort will move forward ahead of the midterms. The referendum must receive majority support next week for the vote to pass.
Virginia Redistricting Referendum: What Latest Polls Show
The latest poll of the race from Quantus Insights suggested that a slim majority of Virginia voters are planning to vote in support of the referendum. The poll found that 51 percent of respondents said they would vote in favor of it, compared to 47 percent who planned to vote against it. It surveyed 1,121 likely voters on April 15.
“Our polling shows the Virginia redistricting amendment narrowly ahead, but not secure. The measure begins with a small lead on the ballot, yet becomes more vulnerable when voters weigh the partisan balance and fairness of the outcome. This is shaping up as a close, high-interest vote, with late perceptions of legitimacy likely to decide the result,” the polling report reads.
That's similar to a poll from The Washington Post and George Mason University, which found 52 percent of Virginians planning to vote in support of the redistricting referendum and 47 percent against it. That poll surveyed 1,101 likely voters from March 26-31.
Both of those polls point to a much closer race compared to the 2025 gubernatorial race, when Democrat Abigail Spanberger sailed to victory over former Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears by a 15-point margin.
An earlier Roanoke College poll showed that 52 percent of Virginians planned to vote against the referendum, while only 44 percent of respondents said they would vote in its favor. It surveyed 800 adults from February 9-16.
J. Miles Coleman of Sabato's Crystal Ball wrote in an update Thursday that there is "likely an anti-gerrymandering majority in the state" and that polling "does not suggest a Democratic win as resounding as Spanberger's victory."
"Aside from the unusual timing of the measure, there are political realities that each side is contending with. While Democrats, as we've documented frequently, have the higher propensity coalition, this vote likely feels more existential for state GOP partisans: after losing their statewide clout last year in a drubbing, they could now lose much of their federal representation," he wrote.
What Will Be the Impact on the Midterm Elections?
The map would redraw four GOP-held seats to become more favorable toward Democrats.
Two of those seats-those held by Representatives Jen Kiggans and Rob Wittman-were expected to be competitive in the midterms regardless, as President Donald Trump only narrowly carried those districts in the 2024 presidential race. Those races will be contested either way, but Democrats may have an advantage if it passes.
But two other seats-those held by Representatives John McGuire and Ben Cline-are not viewed as competitive under their current configurations. Democrats are unlikely to invest heavily in these races if the vote doesn't pass, but if it does, Democrats may start with an advantage.
Under the proposed map, all four seats will have voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.
This means Virginia’s delegation could potentially shift from 6-5 for Democrats to 10-1 for Democrats.
Republicans have argued that it would not be representative of the overall population in Virginia, where Harris received less than 52 percent of the vote in 2024. Democrats, however, say they supported a more bipartisan map but needed to counter GOP redraws in states like Texas and Missouri.
What Has Abigail Spanberger Said About Redistricting Vote?
Spanberger, who took office earlier this year, has voiced support for the redistricting effort.
"As early voting begins tomorrow on Virginia's redistricting amendment, voters should know that Virginia's approach is different. It is temporary, directly responsive to what other states decide to do, and - most importantly, it preserves Virginia's bipartisan redistricting process for the future," she said in a statement in March.
She said that her support for a bipartisan redistricting committee has not changed.
"What has changed is what we're seeing in states across the country - and a President who says he is ‘entitled' to more Republican seats before this year's midterm elections," she said.
What Is Redistricting?
States redraw their congressional maps each decade based on the new census data. Districts change from decade to decade due to migration and population shifts. States that gain population often gain a new seat, while those with slow or negative growth may lose seats.
Typically, this only occurs once per decade, barring any legal challenges to a map. But numerous states have sought to redraw their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 election.
Newsweek's reporters and editors used Martyn, our Al assistant, to help produce this story. Learn more about Martyn.
2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
This story was originally published April 16, 2026 at 6:18 PM.