Sherrod Brown Chances of Ousting GOP's Jon Husted in Ohio Senate Race-Polls

Republican Senator Jon Husted trailed former Senator Sherrod Brown in a new poll of the OhioSenate race as Democrats see an opening to flip a seat in the red-leaning state.

The new poll from AARP underscored the competitive nature of the race. Democrats view Ohio as a top flip opportunity in the 2026 midterms, despite the state shifting rightward over the past decade, as President Donald Trump's declining approval rating gives them hope of expanding the Senate battleground in November.

Brown, who lost reelection in 2024, is seeking a comeback against Husted, who was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, but Democrats face a tough Senate map that requires them to win conservative states like Ohio to secure a majority.

New Ohio Senate Poll: Sherrod Brown Holds Narrow Lead Over Jon Husted

Brown holds a narrow lead over Husted in the new Ohio poll, though neither candidate received more than 50 percent of the vote, suggesting the race remains highly competitive for the midterms.

It found that 48 percent of respondents plan to back Brown in November, while 45 percent plan to vote for Husted. Such a poll suggests Democrats could be on the path to regaining ground in Ohio this November despite the state's increasingly conservative lean.

The poll was conducted among 800 likely voters from June 14 to 16, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

It also showed Democrat Amy Acton with 47 percent support in the gubernatorial race, compared to Republican Vivek Ramaswamy's 44 percent.

Polls so far are mostly "within the margin of error," and no candidate has emerged as a "clear favorite," Robert Alexander, a professor of political science at Bowling Green State University, told Newsweek on Thursday.

Amy Natoce, a spokesperson for Husted, responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek.

“Sherrod Brown spent 32 years in Washington with nothing to show for it. Polls will go up and down all summer. What won't change is that voters fired Brown two years ago after looking at this record, and they're not willing to go backwards now,” she said.

Newsweek also reached out to Brown’s campaign for comment via email.

What Do Other Polls Show?

Polls have so far pointed to a close race in the Buckeye State.

A Fox News poll, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, showed Brown up 8 points with 53 percent to Husted's 45 percent. It surveyed 1,015 registered voters from May 28 to June 1.

Other recent polls show Husted with a narrow lead. Earlier, a Bowling Green State University and YouGov poll, which surveyed 1,000 registered voters from April 7-14, showed Husted with a slight lead over Brown. Fifty percent of respondents said they would vote for Husted, while 47 percent said they would support Brown.

A Quantus Insights poll, which surveyed 784 likely voters from March 13-14, showed Husted up a single point over Brown. Husted received 45.5 percent support, compared to Brown's 44.4 percent.

What Do Prediction Markets Show?

Brown is favored in prediction markets. Kalshi had Brown's chances of flipping the seat at 56 percent on Thursday, while Polymarket gave him a 59 percent chance of victory.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.

Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Can Ohio Democrats Make a Comeback?

Trump's approval rating is a key factor in why Republicans are not enjoying the same polling lead they've had in recent election cycles. Voters in the state are unhappy with the economy regarding tariffs, inflation and affordability, according to Alexander.

Brown's candidacy may also be helping Democrats, he said.

"Apart from the soured mood, Sherrod Brown is a known commodity and was able to attract a solid number of Trump voters in 2024," he said. "That is a rare feat in today’s climate. Lastly, in spite of the fact that Jon Husted has been in statewide office for a number of years, many Ohioans don’t know much about him."

Political advertising in the state resembles the "purple Ohio vibes from the 2000s," he said, noting that it seems 2026 will be a competitive year for Democrats in Ohio.

The political landscape is shaped beyond Trump, he said, pointing to "general unease" about the economy that has lasted more than a decade, as well as growing concerns over data centers and rising energy costs.

"You also see that Democrats are showing up in places that Trump really widened gaps in Republicans’ favor. Brown and gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton are campaigning in more rural areas and focusing on kitchen table topics. Ohio has always had a populist streak and leaning into it is good politics for Democrats in this moment," he said.

Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball view the race as a pure toss-up. Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted it away from Lean Republican earlier in June after Brown and Husted formally won their parties' nominations.

Ohio’s Rightward Shift

Trump carried the state by about 11 percentage points in 2024, an improvement on his 2020 and 2016 performances, when he won by about 8 points in each. But Ohio was viewed as more competitive for Democrats not long before. Former President Barack Obama narrowly carried Ohio in 2008 and 2012. It has shifted as Trump performed well among the state's working-class voters.

Trump made inroads with white, working-class voters who were previously more divided. His gains came from rural counties as well as the northeastern region near Cleveland. Democrats have gained some ground in Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs, but not enough to offset Republicans’ gains in the rural areas.

Still, Ohio has been competitive in some recent elections. Brown won reelection in 2018, then lost in 2024 by fewer than 4 percentage points. Democrats hope their candidates can improve on that in a more favorable national environment in November.

Why Ohio's Senate Race Is So Important

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to secure a majority. North Carolina is crucial to Democrats' bid to retake control in the midterms as it's the only GOP-held seat Trump won by single digits up for grabs in November.

Democrats view the seat in Maine, held by Republican Senator Susan Collins, as another top target, as it is a Democratic-leaning state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 7 points in 2024. Democrats are also on the defensive in two Trump-won states, Georgia and Michigan.

But even if Democrats win all four of those races, Republicans would still have a 51-49 majority, so they are eyeing states where Trump won by double digits, such as Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, as potential flip opportunities. Although all of these states are viewed as more conservative, polls show Republicans locked in competitive races.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gabe Whisnant and Sam Wilson.

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This story was originally published June 25, 2026 at 6:02 PM.