Iran has limited the impact of US strikes, intelligence says

LONDON - Pre-war planning meant Iran's military was able to mitigate the impact of U.S.-Israeli strikes on its weapons arsenal and leadership, according to Western military intelligence assessments - which also say it retains the ability to respond if the ceasefire fails.

The country has sustained massive damage to its infrastructure and its most senior leaders have been killed. But operational planning undertaken in anticipation of the conflict was effective in preventing the destruction of its missile and drone capabilities as well as maximizing the impact of its military response, people familiar with the assessments said, requesting anonymity discussing private reports.

These provide a much more nuanced picture of the outcomes of the U.S.-Israeli operation than that portrayed by President Donald Trump and U.S. administration officials. The effectiveness of Iran's earlier military planning also raises the prospect that it could use the current ceasefire to make preparations for any resumption of hostilities.

"Iran has been totally OBLITERATED, Militarily, and otherwise," Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday. When the president announced the ceasefire last week, he said the U.S. had "already met and exceeded all military objectives."

Instead, plans put in place by Iran to replace senior military leaders in the event they were killed meant the country was able to minimize disruption to its command structures when they were targeted in the first days of the war, the people said.

It also appears that Iran retains solid reserves of long-range missiles, according to assessments provided by European and Gulf officials. It still has thousands of drones in its armory, the people added.

Iran's missile stocks are a closely guarded secret. Some Western officials privately claim the U.S. would need to conduct around two to three more weeks of strikes to completely degrade Iranian capabilities. But others say that may be an optimistic scenario: It could take longer, and Iran's industrial and nuclear capabilities may still not be wiped out.

Iran has dispersed its missile launchers and drone infrastructure across the country and also shifts launchers around to different sites, making it harder for the U.S. to quickly eliminate them.

The picture sits at odds with the assessment of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at a press briefing on April 8: "By any measure, Epic Fury decimated Iran's military and rendered it combat ineffective for years to come," he said, using the administration's name for its operation.

U.S. Central Command declined to comment. The Pentagon referred to Hegseth's comments earlier Thursday, including a message to Iranian leadership that "we know what military assets you are moving and where you are moving them to" and "while you are digging out of bombed-out and devastated facilities, we are only getting stronger."

Trump said in June last year that the U.S. had "obliterated" Iranian nuclear facilities in strikes that month. Iranian nuclear "dust" was "buried," Hegseth said at his briefing, adding that "their command and control is so decimated they can't really talk and coordinate."

The Defense Intelligence Agency said in a global assessment provided to Congress on Thursday that Iran "retains thousands of missiles and one-way attack UAVs that can threaten U.S. and partner forces throughout the region, despite degradations to its capabilities from both attrition and expenditure."

The Iranian regime remains stable and unified, according to the Western military intelligence assessments, even while the killing of senior leaders including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani has impacted the regime's political decision-making ability, they said.

Stung by last year's 12-day war with Israel - which the U.S. also joined - Iran's leaders devised plans to decentralize decision-making across the country along provincial lines. Called the "mosaic" defense strategy, it gives military commanders more power to make decisions independently.

Israel's attacks on Iran last year prompted the country to introduce new decision-making bodies and reshuffle its leadership strategy. This included preparations for personnel changes in the event of more targeted killings of its top commanders and leadership.

Despite the contingency planning, Iran is taking a massive economic hit from the attacks, which could come to a head this summer if the war continues, some of the Gulf and European officials said.

An Israeli estimate put Iran's arsenal at close to 2,500 ballistic missiles before the war started. Official reports from Gulf countries and Israel suggest Iran has fired at least 1,850 ballistic missiles so far, alongside more than 4,700 Shahed rudimentary cruise missiles and about 80 conventional cruise missiles, according to Becca Wasser, defense lead for Bloomberg Economics.

The most recent ballistic missile strike was in Bahrain on April 13, but it was unclear whether it originated from Iran or Iranian proxies in Iraq.

In an operational update posted on X on April 6, U.S. Central Command said it had struck more than 13,000 targets in Iran since the current operation began on Feb. 28.

More than 155 Iranian vessels had been destroyed, and U.S. forces had hit a range of targets including Iranian command and control centers and ballistic missile sites, it said.

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With assistance from Gerry Doyle, Golnar Motevalli, Jen Judson, Michelle Jamrisko and Tony Capaccio.

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This story was originally published April 16, 2026 at 7:56 PM.