While the missing former Centre County District Attorney, Ray Gricar, has been in the news over the last two and a half weeks, it generally has not been for anything directly about his disappearance. Generally, but one piece of news does have a major impact on any theory about what happened to Mr. Gricar. The police have ruled out the sighting of Mr. Gricar in Wilkes-Barre on 4/18/05. According to Bellefonte Police Chief Shawn Weaver, speaking on CNN, “That turned out not to be Ray.”1
I gave the probability that this sighting was correct as high, close to saying that it was really Mr. Gricar, but just at the threshold for beyond a reasonable doubt.2 Why? There were two independent witnesses; they had not talked to each other because one was in town. Their contact was something more than passing that presumed Gricar doppelganger on the street. The man discussed a favorite subject of Mr. Gricar, the Cleveland Indians. And finally, one of the witnesses was a police office, I’m told actually a criminal investigator. That is a strong sighting, but also, as it turned out, an inaccurate one. That will change things.
The first thing changed will be the odds. Slamdunk, my fellow blogger, said in relation to another post 4/15/05 sighting:
“The more credible witnesses that authorities have documented in the case file, the more likely it is that Ray Gricar left his life in Pennsylvania voluntarily.” 3
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As there are now two fewer credible witnesses, the likelihood that Mr. Gricar left voluntarily will drop.
The second thing changed will be evaluating some of the specific murder scenarios, including one that I thought was very weak, “A Short Walk to Murder.”4 If you’ve been watching the case, you’ll know that the chances for murder have been slowly increasing over the past 8 or so months.
Centre Daily Times Ray Gricar Section: http://www.centredaily.com/138/
Link to the Main Index for Sporadic Comments on Ray Gricar: http://www.centredaily.com/2011/03/21/2597340/main-index-32011.html
E-mail J. J. in Phila at email@example.com