‘Significant shivers’ and slush. Farmers’ Almanac has PA winter weather predictions
.jpeg "Snow falls on the Penn State campus Monday, April 18, 2022. Here’s 2022 to 2023 winter weather predictions from the Farmers’ Almanac.")
The first day of winter is several months out, but the Farmers’ Almanac has released its Extended Winter Weather Forecast and Pennsylvania may be in for a chilly season.
Most of the commonwealth (besides a sliver in the western region) is in the area the Almanac designates as “significant shivers, slushy, icy, snowy” this winter.
“The first bite of winter should come earlier than last year’s. December 2022 looks stormy and cold nationwide with an active storm pattern developing and hanging around for most of the season over the eastern half of the country. (Maybe there will be a white Christmas in some areas?),” the Almanac’s website reads.
The Almanac predicts a cold December and a “very cold” January for Northeast residents, but relief may come with a milder February. An active storm track will likely visit the eastern region, including the northeast, the Almanac says.
How does the Farmers’ Almanac predict weather?
The Farmers’ Almanac has provided extended forecasts since 1818, according to its website, and typically projects out further than the National Weather Service.
The Almanac makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the organization’s website says. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
Editors of the Farmers’ Almanac “firmly deny” using any type of computer satellite tracking equipment, weather lore or groundhogs. They say they use a specific and reliable set of rules developed in 1818 by the Almanac’s first editor, an astronomer and mathematician named David Young. The rules have been altered slightly and turned into an astronomical, mathematical formula, the Almanac says.
What does the National Weather Service forecast for Pa.?
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center provides outlooks up to three months out, and the NWS posted the most recent long-range forecast Aug. 18. It includes information for September, October and November.
The seasonal temperature outlook said central Pennsylvania has a 50% to 60% chance of seeing above-normal temperatures, while about a third of the commonwealth’s western region has a chance of 40% to 50% of above-normal temperatures.
The NWS forecast in its seasonal precipitation outlook almost all of Pennsylvania has equal chances of above-normal or below-normal precipitation.
