Will State College see a sweaty autumn or a chilly fall this year? What the outlooks say
State College residents may experience an unusually warm fall this year, according to meteorologists, who forecast a 40 to 50% chance of higher than typical temperatures across the commonwealth.
The National Weather Service seasonal forecast also says Pennsylvania has equal chances of seeing above- or below-normal precipitation from August to October.
The popular Farmers’ Almanac disagrees with the NWS forecast, predicting Pennsylvania and other Northeast states will see a chilly autumn.
Here’s what to know about fall weather, including a prediction from the Farmers’ Almanac and data from meteorologists with the weather service.
Typical fall weather in State College
The NWS State College office provides monthly climate data from 1991 to 2020. Here’s what to know about average fall weather in State College.
August:
Average minimum temperature: 61.6 degrees
Average maximum temperature: 79.3 degrees
Average overall temperature: 70.4 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 4.16 inches
September:
Average minimum temperature: 54.1 degrees
Average maximum temperature: 72.3 degrees
Average overall temperature: 63.2 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 3.95 inches
October:
Average minimum temperature: 43 degrees
Average maximum temperature: 60.7 degrees
Average overall temperature: 51.9 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 3.46 inches
November:
Average minimum temperature: 33.5 degrees
Average maximum temperature: 48.8 degrees
Average overall temperature: 41.2 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 2.99 inches
The average temperature in Centre County last August was 70.8 degrees, according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information.
Here’s more on average temperatures in Centre County:
Note: This graphic will automatically update as new data becomes available.
Farmers’ Almanac fall predictions
The almanac forecasts “cooler and drier weather” across the U.S. this fall, with colder temperatures and “unsettled conditions” in November and December.
The Farmers’ Almanac’s Extended Fall Forecast 2023 predicts the weather will be “colder than normal” and “wet” in Pennsylvania this autumn, in contrast with the NWS forecast.
Most areas will see below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation this autumn, according to the almanac’s prediction.
The organization makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the organization’s website says. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
The Farmers’ Almanac has provided extended forecasts since 1818, according to its website.
