When could central PA get its first snow of the season? Take a look at previous records
As the leaves continue falling and colder temperatures settle in, fall’s transition to winter is approaching quickly.
The State College area saw some record-setting heat last spring and summer, but forecasts for the coming week are calling for cooler temperatures with lows in the 30s and 40s, according to the National Weather Service. High temperatures could reach up to 64 degrees Fahrenheit this week, but southern Centre County should see highs return to the upper 40s by the weekend.
While sweatshirt weather is back in full force, snow and ice could be just a few weeks away, according to the NWS.
Agency data reaching back to 1893 suggests the average first measurable snow of the season in State College (usually exceeding 0.1 inches) falls around Nov. 17. Over that 130-year span, State College has recorded an average of 45.9 inches of snow each season.
Average snowfall accumulation has lowered in recent years, dropping State College’s rate to roughly 43.8 inches per season between 1991 and 2020. On average, Laurel Summit and Erie have led Pennsylvania with more than 100 inches of snow between 1991 and 2020.
When was State College’s first snowfall last winter?
According to NWS archive data, State College recorded its first measurable snowfall Nov. 16, 2022, when roughly 4 inches fell in the Centre region.
The area recorded traces of snow last Nov. 13-15, but not enough fell to reach 0.1 inches and count as measurable snowfall. According to the agency, this usually happens when snow continually melts as it lands on the ground.
Roughly 24.3 inches of snow fell in the State College area during the 2022-23 winter season, producing one of the driest on record. No winter season observed less measurable snowfall than 2019-20, which delivered just about 12.5 inches of snow. The snowiest season, on the other hand, came during the 1993-94 winter season, which yielded 109.3 inches of measurable snowfall.
Bob Smerbeck, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather in State College, says the region can expect a slight improvement when it comes to snowfall this winter, according to recent estimations.
“What we’re looking at here is a range of about 34 to 42 inches. That’s our forecast for State College,” Smerbeck said. “We’re tracking to be slightly below average, but we’re expecting an improvement from last year that’s getting close to normal.”
Could El Niño make a difference this season?
A notable climate pattern could potentially affect Pennsylvania’s winter season this year.
Under normal conditions, trade winds in the Pacific Ocean blow west along the equator and bring warm water from South Africa toward Asia, according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. Colder water then rises from the ocean’s depth through a process called upwelling, which replaces depleted warm water.
During an El Niño pattern, important trade winds weaken, and warmer water is instead pushed back east toward the western coasts of North and South America. This pattern — which is expected to persist throughout the fall and winter seasons — can significantly affect weather and climate.
Warmer water in the world’s largest ocean can alter jet streams and climate systems that help regulate temperatures, precipitation and severe weather throughout the U.S. and other parts of the world. El Niño patterns can also reduce the availability of cold, nutrient-rich water in the Pacific Ocean that underwater ecosystems need to thrive.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, much of the U.S. can expect a warmer, drier winter as El Niño figures to persist.
Most northern states, including Pennsylvania, are expected to observe above-normal temperatures in November, December and January, according to NOAA’s latest seasonal temperature outlook. The risks of warmer temperatures are greatest in the Pacific Northwest, New England and Alaska, according to recent projections.
“We are forecasting somewhat of a mild winter for central Pennsylvania compared to average,” Smerbeck said. “We’re forecasting temperatures to be a degree or two [Fahrenheit] above the historical average, and precipitation should be about average for central Pennsylvania. The farther southeast you get, down toward Harrisburg and Philadelphia, we expect above-average precipitation. Over the course of the winter, that can mean more storms impacting areas southeast of State College and a lesser chance for snowfall near State College and to the west and north.”
Many southern states are expected to observe a wetter-than-usual winter through January, recent models suggest. Some northern states, including Montana and Michigan, are at an above-average risk of a drier winter season. Most of Pennsylvania is expected to have roughly equal chances of recording normal winter precipitation, but it might vary by location.
“We think [El Niño] will continue to strengthen into the early part of the winter,” Smerbeck said. “With strong El Niños, there’s sometimes a lessening in snowfall across the northern and western parts of Pennsylvania, whereas the southeastern part of the state can have average or slightly above-average snowfall. So, that’s one of the reasons, in central Pennsylvania, we have above-normal temperatures and normal precipitation.”
NOAA notes models predicting above-average temperatures do not mean northern states will never see snow. In fact, data from the late 1940s through 2015 found five of the snowiest winters in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania’s capital, occurred during El Niño winters, according to the NWS.
How long might El Niño stick around?
In its most recent report, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center estimated El Niño is expected to persist throughout the Northern Hemisphere’s winter season.The agency projects roughly an 80% chance the pattern continues through at least March-May 2024.
Traditionally, episodes of El Niño and La Niña last between nine and 12 months, but more extreme instances can linger for years. These events generally occur on an irregular schedule about every two to seven years, NOAA reports.
El Niño events are more common than La Niña, the opposing climate pattern. During La Niña, colder waters in the Pacific Ocean push jet streams north, leading to drier weather in southern states, warmer weather in northern states and, potentially, increased hurricane activity.
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