Climate Watch: Are we prepared for extreme weather?

The recent severe winter storm in Texas brought bitterly cold weather and caused blackouts, broken water pipes, suffering, and uncertainty. Could something similar happen here?

The good news is that electricity generators and their fuel suppliers in our region are prepared for expected cold weather. In Texas, they apparently calculated that it would be a wise use of resources to concentrate on extreme heat and hurricanes, both of which are frequent and getting worse because of climate change. Texas focused on preparing for heat and not for cold. When the winter storm hit, electricity generation began to fail and could not keep up with demand.

Pennsylvania is also fortunate to have more excess generation capacity and to be part of a large grid system (called PJM) that is connected to the larger national grid. If electricity generation comes up short in a particular spot, it can be supplemented from afar. Texas has minimal connection to other grids.

A climate scientist once told me he had taken a position at Penn State in part because our geography meant that extreme weather caused by climate change was less likely. We suffer fewer heat waves than Arizona, fewer forest fires than California, fewer floods than along the Mississippi, and fewer hurricanes than the Southeast. Sea level rise is not threatening our homes. Nonetheless, some of our infrastructure is old and climate change will bring more weather extremes.

Penn State Professor Seth Blumsack, an expert on energy policy, pointed out that although the risks here are different, “planning for a changing climate is a challenge for every grid operator and regulator.” He wondered whether the grid would be ready if Ohio and Pennsylvania suffered a prolonged spell of excessive heat. Could we be as unprepared for extreme heat as Texas was for extreme cold?

The Centre Region’s Emergency Management Coordinator, Shawn R. Kauffman, told me that they are “prepared for extreme weather that routinely impacts our region.” But catastrophes could occur. He pointed to the January 2009 ice storm that disrupted electricity in several states and led to 35 deaths in Kentucky along with the largest deployment of the National Guard in Kentucky’s history. Extended electricity outages in our area could lead to shortages of gasoline and diesel.

What can we learn from what happened in Texas? We are used to flipping the switch and having the lights come on. But we no longer have the luxury of taking our electricity and water for granted. We need to think about the laws or regulations that utilities operate under. Are they adequate to new challenges? Who controls those utilities? Are they doing a good job? Are they making the hard decisions to equip our infrastructure for a changing future? How can we support the work that they are doing?

In Texas, electricity companies apparently had an economic incentive not to weatherize. We need to do the opposite: to develop economic incentives to promote responsible management, to cut down on emissions, and to encourage innovation and new technologies.

In our own households we can take steps to prepare for an emergency. The Centre Region Ready website has helpful suggestions and recommends getting ready for emergencies to last 72 hours. But individual households cannot solve problems that are system-wide.

Instead of merely responding to emergencies as they occur, we need to address the root of the problem. We need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. Otherwise, the weather extremes will eventually become overwhelming.