Climate watch: Long-term solutions needed to food shortage problems
On May 21, the cover story in The Economist magazine was entitled “The coming food catastrophe.” A headline in the Centre Daily Times on Aug. 29 showed that the dire predictions were in fact coming true: “Dried-out farms worldwide put pressure on food prices.”
Of course, not all the shortages are caused by weather. The anti-hunger organization Oxfam summarized causes of the serious famine in the Horn of Africa with the neat phrase: “climate, conflict, and COVID-19.”
These articles tell us that even before the invasion of Ukraine, the food situation for this year did not look good. China expected its worst-ever wheat crop. COVID-19 disrupted global trade and hampered farm work. As the pandemic eased, increased demand caused higher costs for fertilizer and energy — both essential for agriculture.
The predictable, though harmful, response of many governments was to halt exports of food. Yet The Economist noted that “four-fifths of the global population live in countries which are net importers of food.” When Russia blocked the export of Ukrainian wheat, the situation became worse. And weather disasters have multiplied.
The drought in China is the worst in six decades. India, the world’s second-largest producer of wheat after China, experienced its hottest spring in 122 years. Yields declined in the extreme heat, and farmers have difficulty working outside. Pakistan is suffering from unprecedented floods that have damaged rice fields and vegetable production and threaten to disrupt wheat planting. Their demand for imports will put further pressure on global food markets. The drought in Europe may be the worst in 500 years. The Guardian reported that half of the potato crop in England is predicted to fail.
Unfortunately, famously productive American agriculture will not be able to make up the difference. Reuters noted that “Bumper U.S. crops are needed to offset low global grain supplies, but extreme heat and widespread drought in parts of the Midwest have hampered yields and a string of troubled crop harvests worldwide are pointing to multiple years of tight supplies and high food costs.”
Things are somewhat better locally. Congressman Glenn Thompson organizes a panel on agriculture every year at Ag Progress Days and answers questions from the audience. This August, when the subject of climate came up, he pointed out how fortunate we were in Pennsylvania to be able to grow cover crops. In the arid regions of the west that is not possible. Dean Richard Roush of the Penn State College of Agriculture stated that 67% of Pennsylvania farmers have adopted no-till. Both practices help keep carbon dioxide sequestered in the soil.
Although our local weather may seem to insulate us from the worst effects of a changing climate, we cannot escape the consequences of food shortages around the world. The market for grain is global. We will pay higher prices which will contribute to inflation. The United States government will have to deal with political instability and mass migration in many parts of the world.
What can we do? One simple step is to eat less meat. The Economist noted that “Last year China imported a record 28 million tons of maize (corn) — more than what Ukraine normally exports in a year — to feed its immense hog herd.” Cows eat about 40% of the wheat grown in the EU and a third of the corn in the US. We could stop making automobile fuel out of grains. And, of course, we could keep climate change from getting worse by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.