Climate watch: International Energy Agency predicts dramatic rise in renewable energy use
The new year dawns with good news for the climate.
The International Energy Agency’s “Renewables 2022” report had already forecast a dramatic increase in renewable energy use over the next five years. But just last month, IEA revised that prediction upward.
Renewables — primarily solar and wind — are expected to grow about 30% more than the organization first expected. It is the largest upward adjustment that IEA has ever made.
And renewables should account for over 90% of new global electricity capacity growth between now and 2027.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted nations dependent on Russian gas “to step on the accelerator in their clean energy deployment,” as Dana Nuccitelli, research coordinator for Citizens’ Climate Lobby puts it.
“The war in Ukraine is a decisive moment for renewables in Europe where governments and businesses are looking to rapidly replace Russian gas with alternatives,” the IEA report says.
“The amount of renewable power capacity added in Europe in the 2022-27 period is forecast to be twice as high as in the previous five-year period, driven by a combination of energy security concerns and climate ambitions.”
But reaction to war is only part of the story. Many other things are happening too.
IEA says that “The upward revision is mainly driven by China, the European Union, the United States, and India, which are all implementing existing policies and regulatory and market reforms, while also introducing new ones more quickly than expected in reaction to the energy crisis. China’s 14th Five-Year Plan and market reforms, the REPowerEU plan, and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act are the main drivers of the revised forecasts.”
Worldwide solar energy production will nearly triple, predicts IEA. By 2027, the report says, solar will surpass coal as the number one source of power capacity.
Wind-generated energy — both onshore and offshore — is forecast to almost double in the next five years.
IEA notes that renewable power capacity could grow even faster than forecast with a few key changes. The most notable one is quicker permitting of energy projects and transmission lines.
In late December, the European Union announced that it will introduce shorter permitting times for solar and other renewable energy assets. Permitting is a problem in the United States also. It takes an average of four-and-one-half years to complete the environmental impact statements needed to permit major energy projects.
Permitting reform is tricky because of justifiable fears that — if worded poorly — it can be used to weaken restrictions on landfills, truck terminals, chemical plants, pipelines, power plants, and highways.
Nonetheless Citizens’ Climate Lobby advocates responsible permitting reform “…to speed the pace with which we build new clean energy projects.”
If permitting legislation is done with care, it can deliver a boost to the clean energy economy that will pay dividends for generations.