Off The Bat: 6 Pirates lessons from 6 games against the best teams in baseball
It's dangerous to overanalyze a six-game sample size.
It's also rare to get an opportunity like the Pirates just got: six games in a row against the two best teams in baseball, a midseason measuring stick against the two teams everyone wants to be (and beat).
The Pirates went 1-5 in that stretch, losing all three in Atlanta before coming home and dropping two of three against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Six games don't mean everything, just like the Pirates' three-game sweep of the eventual champion Dodgers last September didn't mean they were the better team. But they do provide some lessons.
Here are six the Pirates learned from six against the best:
1. You need to take your chances.
This was best shown last Sunday in the South, a 3-2 Braves win to complete a sweep. The Braves had just four at-bats with runners in scoring position. The Pirates had 11. Yet the Braves went 1 for 4, capitalizing with Michael Harris II's pinch-hit, bases-clearing double. And the Pirates went 2 for 11.
Baseball is a game of chances, regardless of the opponent. Against the best, it's crucial to capitalize on the ones you have.
The Dodgers and Braves had better conversion rates with runners in scoring position in four of six games. The exceptions came in the final two, the Pirates' best two games of the six-game span.
The Braves and Dodgers both rank in the top four in OPS with runners in scoring position. The Pirates rank 23rd (.699). The best teams in baseball tend to be the best teams in those situations - and to beat them, outperforming them with runners on is a major key.
2. The bullpen matters - and Carmen Mlodzinski and Wilber Dotel don't fix everything.
The Braves have the best bullpen in baseball, a big reason why they have the best record in baseball. The Dodgers' bullpen has been middling, though it did have a 38-inning scoreless streak in May (and went 9-3 in that span).
The Pirates' bullpen? It's been a different story. The Dodgers capitalized against Dotel and Brandan Bidois for a 10-run inning Tuesday, hit a grand slam against Mlodzinski and a two-run shot against Gregory Soto in the ninth inning Wednesday, then tacked on against Evan Sisk and Bidois on Thursday.
The Pirates' only win came in the game when their bullpen outperformed the Dodgers' - well, collapsed less. If not for the Dodgers ‘pen allowing a five-run eighth on Wednesday, the Pirates may have gone 0-6.
Another lesson was seeing that Mlodzinski and Dotel aren't infallible. While both are better than they looked against the Dodgers, and Dotel continued to struggle Friday against the Miami Marlins, they alone won't fix the bullpen.
3. You can't beat dollars for depth ... but the Pirates do have some.
The Pirates can't match the depth provided from the Dodgers' $328 million or the Braves' $259 million payrolls (both figures per Ethan Hullihen's MLB Spreadsheets). The Pirates played in Atlanta without Konnor Griffin and against the Dodgers without Oneil Cruz. They missed both more than the Dodgers missed, say, Will Smith or Edwin Diaz or Blake Snell or Tyler Glasnow.
But the Pirates do have better options than they did last year. Both Tyler Callihan and Rafael Flores contributed. Esmerlyn Valdez can make an impact. Pitchers in Indianapolis, such as Thursday night call-up Antwone Kelly, can help.
It's still a major difference between the Pirates and big-money, big-market teams. The Pirates are in a better spot, but they need lesser-known players to continue stepping up to win.
4. Clean games = clean wins.
Defense has been a topic of conversation internally for the Pirates all season. Those conversations continued Tuesday, Brandon Lowe said.
"I don't think it was ever something like a team meeting or anything like that. It's just kind of guys talking," Lowe said. "You sit in the clubhouse for hours on end. You talk in the tubs and whatnot. And [there are] just things that we gotta clean up a little bit."
The Pirates committed five errors in the six games. Their opponents committed two. The Dodgers commit the second-fewest errors per game, while the Braves rank ninth. The Pirates rank 26th.
Those little things make a major difference.
"We're learning how to win," manager Don Kelly said. "We need to continue to do that. We need to continue to work on the fundamental stuff as far as throwing strikes, making plays defensively, continue to work on our approach at the plate."
5. The starting pitching needs to go deeper.
There's real reason for concern about Mitch Keller (more on him later). Braxton Ashcraft's rough start looks like an aberration. But the other three - Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler and Paul Skenes - showed they're capable of competing against the best offensive teams in baseball.
That said, the Pirates got just one start of six innings. While their opponents managed just two (and the Dodgers are notorious for grinding pitchers out), the Pirates need more efficiency from their greatest strength.
The Pirates have the parts of a rotation that can be dangerous in October if they get there. However, more innings are needed - which will help the bullpen, too.
6. How far away are the Pirates?
Kelly's biggest takeaway from the series was the Pirates aren't that far away. Kelly, always an optimist, rued missed chances in Atlanta and Tuesday's seventh inning yet took pride in the Pirates' fight.
"It just speaks to the toughness of the team, how we continue to battle," Kelly said. " ... If we continue to do that through the remainder of the season, we'll be in a really good spot."
Still, it should be a learning experience. Lowe hopes some lessons were taken.
"You watch the way they pitch, the way their bullpen goes, the way they play defense, and you hope guys in here just learn," Lowe said. "Obviously, they're tops in the league for a reason, and obviously the score didn't go the way that we wanted it to. But there's still a bunch of things to learn and a lot of baseball left."
I'll be watching ...
How the Pirates replace Oneil Cruz. "Replace" might not be the right word - there's no replacement and really no recreating him in the aggregate, "Moneyball"-style. But losing Cruz will be a major hole in the Pirates' lineup. The Pirates will need several players to step up if they are to continue on their offensive pace. I'm looking forward to seeing more Valdez, while I'm curious to see if Callihan can keep contributing. Regardless, the Pirates are going to really, really miss Cruz.
How Mitch Keller gets out of his current funk. Keller has an 8.70 ERA in his last six starts, spanning 30 innings. His ERA is among the bottom five in baseball among qualified starters. Suddenly, he's the weak link in the Pirates' rotation (though no one is exactly dominating right now). I generally downplay the importance of coaching - it's on players to execute, not the pitching coach - but this is a situation when you need Bill Murphy to find solutions.
Let the kids play! This isn't a development year for the Pirates, so it shouldn't be treated as such, but the Pirates are suddenly a very, very young team. Callihan, Valdez and Flores just hit their first homers. Dotel and Kelly are all true rookies pitching in the bullpen. And it can be easy to forget Griffin and Chandler are rookies, too. Each needs to contribute immediately - the Pirates are sliding, and there are October goals, after all - but there's something fun about the young guys getting big opportunities.
They said it ...
"It was a barrel. I got it, but I'm not much of a pimp job guy like everybody else, so I just kind of hit it and go. ... He's gotta act like he's done it before." - Flores, making fun of lockermate Callihan after both hit their first big-league home runs
Prospect pictures
This week was a big one for promotions, with several coming roughly 60 games into the season. Khristian Curtis, Jaden Woods, Derek Diamond, Keiner Delgado and Derek Berg joined Triple-A Indianapolis. Connor Oliver, Shalin Polanco and Carlos Caro got the call to Double-A Altoona. And 2025 draftees Josh Tate and Dylan Palmer went to High-A Greensboro. Curtis, the Pirates' No. 21 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, is the name to know and could pitch for the Pirates later this season, following a similar path to Hunter Barco last year. Diamond and Oliver also deserve looks as long relievers, as Diamond pitched 10 scoreless innings (five appearances) at Altoona and the lefty Oliver has a 2.27 ERA in 43 2/3 innings in Greensboro.
On deck
What happens in ... Sacramento?
The Athletics are in the midst of six games at a minor league ballpark in their future home of Las Vegas, but they wrap up their nine-game homestand with three against the Pirates back in Sacramento, Calif. The A's and Milwaukee Brewers combined for 11 homers in a 15-14 Brewers win on Monday. Sacramento has been very hitter-friendly, but Las Vegas seems like even more of a launching pad.
Rocky Mountain rebound
The Pirates follow three games in Sacramento with three games in Coors Field. It should be a good trip for the offense, not so much for the pitchers. The Rockies entered the weekend with the worst record in baseball, a welcome respite after six against the MLB-best Braves and Dodgers.
Bottom of the ninth
Paul Skenes visited Ingomar-Franklin Park Little League on Monday, giving an unforgettable experience to local Little Leaguers by spending two hours playing catch, taking photos and hanging out with the kids. He said he was hoping not to get noticed and just wanted to watch some baseball because he was bored, joking he should have worn sunglasses and a fake mustache.
Former Los Angeles Angels outfielder Garret Anderson did the same for a young Skenes, something that made an impact on the Pirates' ace. While it certainly meant more to the kids than it did for Skenes, it seems like it made an impact on him.
"It's a job for us, for sure, on some days more than others. But you've got to remember you love the game and why you started playing it in the first place," Skenes said. "So it was good for me to visit them because of that."
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