John Romano: In a strange way, last year's heartache may bode well for Lightning

TAMPA, Fla. - Two years ago, the Tampa Bay Lightning had an obvious 5-on-5 issue that needed fixing.

The year after that, they had a noticeable shortage of spunk that needed addressing.

So, tell me, what was the Lightning's biggest problem going into this offseason?

The power play? A lack of speed? A dearth of faceoff wins?

Personally, I think it was perception.

You see, there is a tendency to look at four consecutive flameouts in the first round as one continuous story of disappointment. As if the Lightning have been standing still for four years while the rest of the NHL has passed them by.

In reality, the 2025-26 Lightning may have been the best team Tampa Bay has put on the ice since the 2020-21 Stanley Cup champions. And, yes, that includes the 2021-22 team that lost to Colorado in the Stanley Cup Final.

That's why it was so fascinating to watch the offseason unfold the past couple of weeks. The Lightning chased Columbus defenseman Zach Werenski in a trade - who wouldn't want the reigning Norris Trophy winner? - but ultimately settled on some shuffling of pieces that will make the 2026-27 team look a lot like last year.

And, trust me, that ain't a bad thing.

The 2025-26 Lightning were fourth in the league in goals scored and third in goals allowed. They had a .646 points percentage that matched the 2004 team that won the Stanley Cup and was one victory away from surpassing the 2020 team that won the Stanley Cup.

In other words, last year's team was good enough to win it all.

And when you look at it that way, Tampa Bay's offseason moves make perfect sense.

The Lightning essentially swapped Darren Raddysh for John Carlson and Nick Paul for Ilya Mikheyev. Otherwise, the moves were mostly low-key (a new backup goaltender, a bottom-six wing) rather than an overreaction to another premature playoff exit.

That's not as easy as it sounds. Fans? Owners? Reporters? They want evidence of progress, even if it carries risk. Meanwhile, the best general managers approach moves dispassionately with a franchise's long-term outlook balanced against the win-now crowd.

And that's what Julien BriseBois has done.

Make no mistake, BriseBois is not afraid of bold moves. Since Tampa Bay's last Stanley Cup title, he's allowed Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat, Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow, Zach Bogosian and Ian Cole to leave via free agency. He's dealt Mikhail Sergachev and Raddysh. He's traded for Jake Guentzel, Brandon Hagel and J.J. Moser, and signed Carlson.

But through all those moves, BriseBois has been careful not to handcuff future teams with undesirable contracts. He's straddled the line between keeping the Lightning's window of opportunity open without jeopardizing those long-term plans.

That, as much as anything, explains the decision to part ways with Raddysh.

If you look at it strictly from a spreadsheet comparison, Raddysh is younger (30 vs. 36) and had a better season (70 points and plus-21 vs. 60 points and plus-9) than Carlson. So why swap a player who fits your system and is entering his prime for an older player from the outside when they're both making the same salary ($8.5 million) this season?

Because Toronto is tied to Raddysh for eight years while Carlson is a two-year commitment. Carlson will slot into Raddysh's spot next to Moser and will provide a similar right-handed shot on the power play for Nikita Kucherov passes. And, just as importantly, Carlson's contract gives BriseBois freedom to pursue bigger moves in the future.

None of this means the Lightning are without weakness. Montreal was a younger, quicker team, and that played a role in this year's first-round loss. And the power play was 17th in the NHL, which seems inconceivable for a team with as much offensive firepower as Tampa Bay.

Yes, it'll forever be etched in the record books that the Lightning lost first-round matchups in four consecutive seasons. That they have lost 20 of their last 29 playoff games. And it's understandable for the ticket-buying public to lump all that heartache together into one sad narrative.

But each season is a story unto itself. Those earlier playoff defeats were entirely deserved, because the salary cap had chipped away at the roster and the Lightning were a lesser team. The 2025 loss to Florida was a case of running into a stellar team in the first round.

Last season was the most disappointing of all, because the Lightning were good enough to beat the Canadiens.

It might infuriate fans to admit that, but there is also some positive to take away from it.

It means the Lightning are that much closer to making another deep playoff run.

And that's what these offseason moves were all about.

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This story was originally published July 8, 2026 at 5:37 AM.