MLB Draft preview: Are the Pirates going to pick another high schooler at No. 5?
The Pirates are predictably tight-lipped about their intentions for the upcoming MLB Draft, but one thing is certain: They're hoping to build on the momentum they've gained with their past three top selections.
Late Tuesday afternoon, assistant general manager Kevan Graves said "you hope it plays out like it has the last few years."
For the Pirates, those last few years included a National League Rookie of the Year and NL Cy Young winner in Paul Skenes (No. 1 overall pick in 2023); a toolsy high school shortstop and franchise cornerstone in Konnor Griffin (No. 9 in 2024); and a flamethrowing prep pitcher who is baseball's sixth-highest rated prospect in Seth Hernandez (No. 6 in 2025).
"That's the hope," Graves said. "Candidly, that's the expectation every year. We set out to add the most talent collectively to the organization, and certainly, when we're drafting up top or towards the top, the best individual player that we can."
There will be a change as Graves - who joined the Pirates in a baseball operations role in 2008 - will oversee the draft process this year. Justin Horowitz occupied that post the previous two drafts as the director of amateur scouting, but he was hired by the Washington Nationals in December to serve as their assistant general manager. The Pirates plan to hire a director of amateur scouting, with Graves returning to his assistant general manager role, after the draft.
The Pirates will make their first selection at pick No. 5 on Saturday afternoon, marking the seventh year in a row they're picking within the top 10 under general manager Ben Cherington.
"It's just such a cool time," Michael Chernow, the Pirates' director of coaching and player development, said on July 1. "You've got 20-ish players who are experiencing a life milestone, and they get to come into our care and we get to walk alongside them in their journey and go through onboarding and introduce them to the pro game and learn about them."
Here is an overview of what to expect with the Pirates' first pick, as well as the five other slots they own on Day 1.
Top choices at No. 5
The Pirates have taken a high schooler with their top pick in three of the last four years, with Skenes being the exception in 2023.
They're still waiting for 2022 No. 4 pick Termarr Johnson (currently in Triple-A Indianapolis) to fully find his footing, but they've seemingly struck gold with Griffin - who debuted at 19 and looks every bit the part of a major leaguer - and Hernandez, a 20-year-old righty mowing down batters in High-A Greensboro.
So, will they swing for upside yet again?
Three members of the Pirates' current starting rotation - Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones and Braxton Ashcraft - were selected out of high school, but multiple mock drafts have them taking a college pitcher in UC Santa Barbara righty Jackson Flora.
The 6-foot-5, 205-pound native of Pleasanton, Calif., is rated as the top pitching prospect and No. 4 overall player in the class, according to MLB's prospect rankings.
Flora was a reliever as a freshman and moved into the starting rotation last year. This past season, he went 12-0 with a 1.06 ERA and struck out 133 across 102 innings. His fastball sits in the upper 90s and touches triple digits, and he pairs it with a sweeper, slider and changeup that scouts grade as an elite pitch.
The Athletic's Keith Law ranked Flora as his No. 5 overall prospect.
In his top 100 rankings, Law wrote: "He looks like a very likely major-league starter, no worse than mid-rotation, and could end up a No. 1 for someone if he tightens up the fastball command or maybe mixes in a two-seamer."
The Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins and San Francisco Giants own the four picks ahead of the Pirates. There's a consensus trio of top prospects in high school shortstop Grady Emerson, UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky and Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey, and while it's unlikely one of them will fall, any of the three would be extremely enticing for the Pirates.
A more realistic scenario could be a decision between Flora and Eric Booth Jr., an 18-year-old outfielder from Oak Grove High School in Hattiesburg, Miss., who is currently committed to Vanderbilt.
Booth, a center fielder, has premium speed and ranks among the fastest prospects in the class. MLB has Booth as its No. 6 prospect, and ESPN and Baseball America have him No. 5 and No. 6, respectively.
The last time the Pirates selected an outfielder in the first round was Travis Swaggerty in 2018.
But regardless of position, Graves emphasized the Pirates won't be drafting for a specific need - especially early on.
"Which player sort of checked the boxes? What players fit our organizational skill pillars and then what we feel like we have the best opportunity to influence?" Graves said. "That may be a high school kid, maybe someone coming out of college - it's happened to be a couple of high school kids the past two years. I don't think there's a specific demographic necessarily that we're targeting."
Who else could be in play?
While Flora and Booth are regarded as the primary options for the Pirates, there are a few other avenues they could pursue.
One is 21-year-old Drew Burress, who earned first team All-American honors as a junior with Georgia Tech this past season. Burress played center field for the Yellow Jackets, and scouts project him to remain there as a pro.
He's on the smaller side at 5 feet 9 but ranks as a consensus top 10 player in the class. Burress batted .381 and smacked 25 home runs as a freshman, and he didn't slow down much during his ensuing two college seasons, setting the program record in home runs with 60.
The Pirates could conceivably draft a high school shortstop for the second time in three years with 18-year-old Jacob Lombard, who is committed to Miami.
Lombard is the younger brother of George Lombard Jr., the New York Yankees' top prospect, and is MLB's No. 5 prospect. Jacob Lombard is a rangy defender at 6 feet 3 with strong speed and plus power.
Although the Pirates won't draft for a positional need, they could look at a couple catching prospects given the lack of consistent success with 2021 top pick Henry Davis.
Lackey - Burress' Georgia Tech teammate - would be the obvious choice, but he's in contention to be the No. 1 overall pick.
Another possibility is Ryder Helfrick, a 6-foot-1, 210-pound catcher from the University of Arkansas.
Helfrick hit .283 with 18 home runs as a junior, and MLB called him "more advanced than most college catchers" due to his game management and arm strength.
Changing strategy?
The Pirates have a record $19,130,700 bonus pool to spend in this year's draft.
The No. 5 pick is valued at $8,336,500, and the Pirates also own selections at No. 31 (a Competitive Balance Round A pick as a small-market and low-revenue team), No. 44 in the second round and No. 51, which was awarded as a compensatory pick for failing to sign Angel Cervantes last year.
"We're at a point right now where it's difficult to say precisely what our strategy is going to be without knowing how the board plays out," Graves said. "I think we're going to have to be dynamic with that."
Graves called his transition to leading draft operations "seamless," and said the Pirates feel "incredibly prepared" for the weekend.
He said he spent extensive time in the spring scouting prospects on the road and stressed the acumen of the club's scouting department.
"There's just so much that we can't capture, particularly when you're talking about a high school kid, there's so much that we can't capture through the data, through video," Graves said. "I won't speak for other teams, but the Pirates certainly will continue to lean into a very healthy scouting staff and recognize the value that that brings in the amateur space.
And whether it's a high-upside prep star or a proven college player, the Pirates will hope to continue their streak of first-round success in the draft and add to their growing young nucleus.
"We take a lot of pride in guys that we acquire through the draft," Chernow said. " ... We need to be really good, we need to be elite at developing our players internally."
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