Sports

Winners and Losers in in the World Cup Kalshi Prediction Market

By Samuel Profeta Sports Illustrated

Updated July 8, 2026 11:36 AM

The World Cup quarterfinals are set. Only eight teams remain. France leads the charge as the favorite on Kalshi to win its third World Cup. The rest of the field includes Argentina, Spain, England, Norway, Morocco, Belgium, and Switzerland.

France is a strong favorite as the only team above 20% to win the World Cup. Argentina and Spain follow with roughly 18% chances each.

2026 World Cup Winner - Kalshi

France 33.5%
Argentina 18.8%
Spain 18.6%
England 15.6%
Norway 6.3%
Morocco 3.2%
Belgium 2.5%
Switzerland 2.2%

At France's favored trading price on Kalshi's World Cup market, 33.5% offers an $18.17 profit at a $10 trade if it wins. Argentina profits $40.05 while Spain is at $40.58 at the same $10 trade.

Winners

Argentina

Argentina is the winner of the tournament so far with its highest ranked opponents to this point being #24 Austria in the group stage. It got a lucky draw with #19 Switzerland in the quarterfinals after it defeated #13 Colombia in the Round of 16 as an underdog. Argentina is a heavy favorite to advance and play the winner of England vs Norway.

Argentina vs Switzerland World Cup Quarterfinals

Argentina 74%
Switzerland 28%

Spain

It's safe to say that Spain would have been favored either way here against Belgium or the United States. With Belgium being the draw, Spain holds a big advantage. Spain faces a leaky Belgium defense that has conceded five goals in its last three matches. Spain has five clean sheet wins to this point.

Spain vs Belgium World Cup Quarterfinals

Spain 74%
Belgium 27%

Losers

France

While this is a hot take and could backfire, there are some key stats that favor Morocco in this matchup. France is fairly priced as a 77% favorite, but Morocco could keep it competitive. Morocco holds an edge over France in expected goals (+0.43), expected goals conceded (+0.08), expected goal differential (+0.05), and possession (+3%).

France vs Morocco World Cup Quarterfinals

France 78%
Morocco 23%

England

England is the biggest loser on the board with arguably the toughest draw against a highly explosive and efficient Norway squad. Norway has the goal advantage 12-11 on far less shots than England. England has taken 80 shots but converted only 14%. Norway, with just 52 shots, has converted at 23%. Norway is also outplaying its expected goal total by a 1.32 margin to England 1.04.

England vs Norway World Cup Quarterfinals

England 65%
Norway 37%

Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock a $20 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $10 in trades.

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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Winners and Losers in in the World Cup Kalshi Prediction Market.

This story was originally published July 8, 2026 at 11:24 AM.