Analysis, thoughts and predictions ahead of Penn State men’s basketball’s season opener
Penn State men’s basketball tips off its season Monday night against Winthrop. We put together our final thoughts, predictions and analysis heading into Micah Shrewsberry’s second year as head coach.
Projected starters
Guard Jalen Pickett
Guard Andrew Funk
Forward Seth Lundy
Forward Myles Dread
Forward Caleb Dorsey
Breakdown: This is probably going to be fluid throughout the year but this is my best educated guess as to where things are against Winthrop in the opener. Most of these spots aren’t a surprise. Pickett is the team’s best player, Lundy and Dread are veterans who have been with the program for years and provide spacing and defense and Funk has lit up the net this preseason from deep after transferring in from Bucknell. The most likely spot to catch people by surprise is the fifth one.
Dorsey has stood out physically this preseason, adding weight and strength to attack the glass and improve as a rebounder. He’s always had a good shooting stroke but has taken the theory of it and turned it into reality. Now, that’s been the case before for Dorsey and he needs to prove it when the lights come on, but right now he’s probably the best option to start at the five.
Some will worry about his size against the likes of Zach Edey of Purdue and other Big Ten centers, but this is a case of Penn State playing on its own terms. Sure, Edey will be a bulldozer in the post, but he’ll also have to defend on the perimeter without a true post presence to hide on. That, and these situations are fluid. There are several players who can play center and provide Penn State different skills based on the team’s opponent.
Key rotation pieces
Guard Camren Wynter
Guard Dallion Johnson
Guard/Forward Evan Mahaffey
Center Kebba Njie
Breakdown: We’re going to look at this team in February and applaud its depth but I don’t think that’s going to be the case in November and December. There are a couple guys here who are no-doubt contributors and reasonable starters if they get going in Wynter and Johnson. Both are guards who can score efficiently — the former excels with the ball in his hands and the latter is at his best moving off it and allowing his teammates to find him in small openings in the defense. I wouldn’t be surprised if both earn starts at some point.
The same applies to Njie and Mahaffey, but they’re freshmen. It’s hard to envision either playing at a high level against Winthrop in the opener, but not hard to envision both being major pieces during Big Ten play. Njie is a skilled big who can stretch the floor with his shooting while having the strength to protect the rim and have an impact as a rebounder. Mahaffey is a do-it-all wing who can bring the ball up as a lead ball handler, pass at a high level and defend any position on the court and do it well. The problem is their youth, and right now their aggressiveness could be turned against them and turn into fouls. Give them time and both could soon crack the starting lineup as well.
Final predictions
Record: 20-11 (11-9 in conference play). I’ve got Penn State firmly on the bubble this year. The Nittany Lions have a non-conference schedule they can navigate to get to nine wins, and the Big Ten is not at its best this year. Combine that with a group that should show major strides on the court as the season moves along and you’ve got a team that should be able to qualify for the NIT with ease and maybe even an NCAA Tournament berth.
MVP: Pickett. Is there really another option? Pickett is one of the best players in the Big Ten and the offensive engine for the Nittany Lions. He’s excellent operating in the pick and roll, using his size and off-beat pace to get into the paint where defenses collapse on him and give him open shooters on the outside. He’s probably going to lead the team in assists and scoring and is going to have a real chance to take home plenty of individual accolades in his second and final year on campus.
X-factor: Mahaffey. He can legitimately do everything, so it makes sense that Mahaffey is the pick. There’s a chance he’s Penn State’s best wing defender by the end of the year and also its backup point guard behind Pickett. He’s going to be the type of player that may not score 15 points per game ever in his college career, but makes a clear impact that allows him to play professionally for a very long time. Mahaffey progressing into a player who gets major minutes would be enormous for Penn State this season.
They said it
Shrewsberry in October on his team’s cohesiveness:
“(This year) we had almost everybody here the whole summer. We went eight weeks where we were doing stuff every single week. Just building off the court who we are. ... We have great cohesion off the court. We’re not where we need to be from a technical standpoint, but from a trust standpoint we are. ... You get late in games, when you really trust each other, when you really believe in each other, you pull out some late game victories”
