Why Penn State men’s basketball could be back in NCAA Tournament sooner rather than later
Penn State introduced its new head coach last week, and now the program must figure out where it goes from here. Mike Rhoades has nine years of head coaching experience at the Division I level, leaving plenty of film behind to examine how his teams have played and what that could mean for the future of the Penn State men’s basketball program.
Let’s take a look at how Rhoades’ Nittany Lions could look over the length of his seven-year $25.9 million contract.
Offense
This is the end of the court that will likely raise the most questions about the Rhoades hire. His highest ranked offense at VCU was No. 122 in the country in KenPom’s offensive efficiency rating. The Nittany Lions were 13th in that metric last season.
The film points to a VCU offense that relied heavily on creating extra possessions, scoring in transition and getting to the rim. That led to a group that finished 10th in the nation in free throw rate and utilized those extra possessions to make up for some deficiencies from beyond the arc, where the team did not shoot from often and was only above average at making those shots. The upside for Penn State fans is that the Nittany Lion version of Rhoades’ offense isn’t all that likely to match the VCU iteration year in and year out.
The idealized version of his group will likely look much more like the offenses he ran at Rice, where he coached for three years. While those offenses didn’t finish much better, with a high of No. 109 in offensive efficiency in his final season with the Owls, they got there with a significantly lower talent level.
His Rice offenses placed an emphasis on winning the possession battle — which we’ll get into in the next section — but placed a greater emphasis on making shots from beyond the arc while continuing to get to the rim. His groups with the Owls never finished lower than 69th in 3-point attempt rate and was also top 60 in free throw rate in his final two seasons there. Those numbers, and the film of those teams, point to a philosophy of getting to the rim and shooting from beyond the arc — the two most efficient areas on the basketball court.
The ability of the players he brings in the transfer portal and their skillsets will matter, but odds are that Rhoades will prioritize shooting from beyond the arc and the ability to get to the rim and finish. That was the priority for the Nittany Lions last year under Shrewsberry’s No. 13 offense and if Rhoades can get his teams to that level on that end of the court, the ceiling of the program will raise significantly.
Defense
There are reasonable questions to ask about the offense and what it will look like, but the opposite is true for his defenses. He brings many of the same principles that Shaka Smart did when he led VCU to the Final Four in 2011 and has carried Rhoades’ VCU teams to three of a possible five NCAA Tournament appearances.
Ball pressure will be the name of the game for his defenses and has been for a long time. The aforementioned possession battle is much easier to win for his teams because they’ll employ a 1-2-1-1 full court press that makes it difficult for opponents to even get to midcourt. If they manage not to turn it over and get there, the other advantages begin to pile up.
Teams take longer to get there, meaning they have less time to get into their offense. That puts pressure on them to move quicker just to operate the offensive sets they usually do. Now they’re rushing decisions and suddenly that turnover rate increases even more as the offense makes hasty decisions, has less time to work and takes hasty shots. The end result is usually the same for Rhoades’ defenses.
Over the last five years, his groups have finished top 10 in turnover rate and top 45 in defensive efficiency rating, with four of them finishing in the top 15 in that category. They force steals, they force bad shots and most importantly they contest good shots when they give them up. The defenses have finished in the top 40 in block rate and in three of the last five years have finished top 27 in 3-point percentage allowed.
This is going to be the end of the court that creates a baseline for the Nittany Lions under Rhoades and one of many reasons fans should be able to expect some consistency year in and year out. His iterations of Penn State men’s basketball are likely going to be some of the best defensive teams the program has ever seen and should wreak havoc in a conference not used to facing the ball pressure he’s going to bring to the table.
Outlook
There are two main factors that are going to dictate Rhoades’ tenure as Penn State’s head coach.
First, how does the Big Ten respond to the ball pressure and full court press? Teams just don’t bring that kind of pressure in the conference and it will be interesting to see how they handle it from Penn State. It could create a scenario where opponents are so off-kilter that it allows the Nittany Lions to pick up some extra upsets throughout the season. Of course, that will depend on how their pressure is officiated. Big Ten refs can be inconsistent, but if they don’t call as many fouls it will help the Nittany Lions ramp up the pressure on defense.
The other is just how good the offense will be. The defense will create the baseline but the offense will determine the ceiling. For as good as Rhoades’ track record is, he’s winless in his three NCAA Tournament appearances. All three came while he was at VCU with offenses that needed to be better to have postseason success. If they are, then this is a team that should not only make the NCAA Tournament consistently, but also win a game or two when they get there.
There’s plenty of reason to believe they will be, too. Rhoades leaning more on how his teams played at Rice would be an immediate boost to the group, and so will the increased talent level at Penn State thanks to a greater financial commitment to the program by the university that should allow for higher end recruiting classes than he had at either of his last two stops.
That’s what makes this a good hire by Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft. Rhoades has a track record on defense that will keep his teams consistently competitive, while previously showing he can have a modern offense that takes a program to the next level.
The talent he brings in to rebuild the roster will have more say than anything, but there’s plenty of reason to believe the Nittany Lions will be back in the NCAA Tournament sooner rather than later.
