Penn State men’s basketball: Final thoughts & analysis of PSU’s second season under Mike Rhoades
Penn State men’s basketball tips off its season Monday night. Here are our final thoughts, predictions and analysis of the Nittany Lions as they head into the second season with Mike Rhoades as head coach.
Baldwin will create a baseline
Ace Baldwin Jr. announced his entrance to the Big Ten with authority last year, earning the conference’s defensive player of the year award after transferring in from VCU. While he’s not necessarily a lockdown one-on-one defender, his playmaking on that end of the court is undeniable and he’s one of the best in college basketball when it comes to pressuring ball handlers. That helped the Nittany Lion defense get its feet under itself in its first year utilizing head coach Mike Rhoades’ pressing style. This season, Baldwin is in prime position to do that again on the defensive end, while helping create a baseline for the team on offense, too.
He’s been routinely praised by coaches and teammates for how he’s handled this offseason, putting in extra work and leading the way for the team in that regard. While it’s unlikely that he’s going to come in and be an elite shooter, the added reps should only help him make more shots from beyond the arc after he shot only 32.9% from deep last season. He’ll have more space to operate with centers that can space the floor, and should be able to create even more shot opportunities for his teammates. I don’t think he’ll be a major threat for the Big Ten player of the year award, but Baldwin will be one of the best guards in the conference this season.
Transfers dictate team’s ceiling
Baldwin will create the baseline, but the experienced newcomers will dictate how far this team goes. All four of the team’s incoming transfers should have roles on this year’s team and should be able to have a relatively large impact. Freddie Dilione V might be the best of the bunch. He’s a good athlete who can attack downhill, and should be the second-best guard on the team behind Baldwin. If he can shoot it well, there’s no reason he can’t just be the second-best guard, but the second-best overall player. Eli Rice will provide quality wing depth and should be in the rotation early on for the Nittany Lions. He’ll be a key piece in allowing them to be big at the wing positions and versatile on both ends of the court.
Kachi Nzeh and Yanic Konan Niederhauser should immediately be the top two bigs on the roster and will have the largest impact on Penn State’s play style. Both bigs are good screeners and passers, allowing them to be effective in the short roll after setting screens for the likes of Baldwin and Dilione. Not to mention, Niederhauser is also a good shooter who can create space for Baldwin by being able to stand out on the perimeter and make shots. All four transfers should nicely supplement the returning roster and raise the ceiling for what year two of Rhoades’ tenure can be.
NCAA Tournament is possible
All of that is to say, the goal Rhoades set at his media day press conference — of making the NCAA Tournament — is within reach for Penn State this season. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, or that it’s even a likelihood, but the head coach and his staff have done a good job of building a roster that fits well together. That’s a far cry from last year’s group that had to be put together hastily. It’s clear with the construction of this group and the additions the team made that Rhoades has a vision for what this season’s version of Penn State basketball will look like.
It will be a group that relies on his intense ball pressure defense to create transition opportunities at the rim and around the arc — shots the team is better built to make this year. It won’t be as good in the half court on offense, but it will have enough shooting and spacing that Baldwin can create shots for himself and his teammates when the Nittany Lions can’t run their way to made shots. An identity is important at a place like Penn State where five-star talent isn’t flocking and it looks like Rhoades has quickly established one.
Final Predictions
Season record: 19-12 (9-11 in the Big Ten). This should put Penn State squarely on the bubble and in need of some wins in the Big Ten Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament. I think this defense is still going to cause problems for opponents in the conference and the offense should play with much better spacing. That being said, it’s really hard to make the NCAA Tournament when you’re in a conference as good — and as deep — as the Big Ten and not one of the top teams. While I think it’s well within the realm of possibility for the team to make it, I’ll say they just miss out and land in the NIT.
Team MVP: Ace Baldwin Jr. Shocking that I would pick the best player on the team to win MVP, I know, but I think we’re going to see the best version of Baldwin this season. With all of the raving from teammates and coaches about how dedicated he’s been this offseason and the strides he’s taken from a maturity standpoint. Couple that with what should be improved spacing on the offensive end and he should be looking at an All-Big Ten first team selection at the end of the season, and a second Big Ten defensive player of the year award.
The last word
Penn State head coach Mike Rhoades on building a program that can have long-term success:
“It would be great if we could start right now and start building sustainable success, but nothing is guaranteed. But I do truly believe with the support from the administration, the decisions we’re making building a program, I believe we’re going in the right direction. We gotta win, man. We’ve had pockets of success. We don’t have much tradition of Penn State basketball (having) sustained success.”
