5 thoughts on Penn State basketball after a season-opening 76-68 win over Fairfield
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Penn State will lean on freshmen Melih Tunca and Kayden Mingo to lead.
- Roster turnover and limited depth leave the bench unable to sustain scoring.
- Despite the win, forecasts project a weak Big Ten season and single-digit wins.
Penn State eked out a close win in its season opener against Fairfield Monday night, 76-68. The Nittany Lions are in their third year under head coach Mike Rhoades, with a very different roster than in his first two seasons.
Here are five thoughts on Penn State as the season gets underway.
Tunca is one to watch
The Nittany Lions turned over a lot of their roster this offseason and brought in several players from Europe, including Melih Tunca — who could be the team’s best player this year. The 6-foot-5 freshman is a good ball handler who sees the floor well and can make shots at all three levels. His biggest issue right now is how well he’ll be able to hold up on the ball defensively because he doesn’t have the quickest feet. That being said, he could still be a good off-ball defender because of his high basketball IQ, and should have a chance to make an all-conference team by the end of the season. He finished with 19 points to lead the team, along with six assists and four rebounds.
Mingo will make an impact early and often
The most heralded newcomer on the team is freshman Kayden Mingo, who is the highest-rated recruit in program history and finished Monday’s game with 15 points in 34 minutes. Mingo is a good athlete who can put pressure on the rim, but sees the floor well enough to create opportunities for teammates when he attacks the hoop. He’s going to get the keys to the offense this season, but played well off the ball in high school and should be able to play alongside Tunca. He’s versatile enough to make an impact whether he has the ball or not, and should continue to grow as he adjusts to playing at the college level. And if he takes the strides he’s expected to, he has a chance to overtake Tunca as the team’s best player by the end of the season.
Depth is lacking
The Nittany Lions have two quality guards in Tunca and Mingo, but beyond that don’t have much depth. The two guards should see plenty of minutes, but the rest of the group will have to prove itself. Tibor Mrtič, Ivan Jurić, Eli Rice, Freddie Dilione V and Josh Reed all seem like potentially viable starters, but all of them need to make improvements. Even Reed is best coming off the bench — and the same argument could be made for Dilione — but on this team Rhoades might have to start them. Mason Blackwood, Saša Ciani and Dominick Stewart are all likely to get minutes, too, but none of them have proven they can play at a high level in the Big Ten. After starting, Ciani and Stewart saw limited minutes the rest of the way. Blackwood has the upside to get there in short order as a freshman, but his shooting is going to be a question mark. It is clear that this team is going to lean heavily on its two best players to get wins this season.
Returners need to make strides
For this team to do anything in the Big Ten this season, Dilione and Rice are going to have to get better as the season goes along. Dilione would be an ideal fit as a sixth man, who can come off the bench and provide a legitimate scoring punch when he’s going good. He could be the change of pace this team needs when its top guards are having an off night and need somebody else to step up. Rice is not going to be on the ball much for the Nittany Lions, but he can be a valuable role player as a 3-and-D wing who can get hot from beyond the arc when Tunca and Mingo are attacking. He can fit a very specific role that most of the other players on this team can’t.
A postseason berth would be a major surprise
Surprise is probably an understatement here. This team is not good, and is not going to be good this season in what should be a strong Big Ten. In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the group finished with single-digit overall wins or if it didn’t win more than five games in the conference. Monday night’s performance is likely just the first sign of what’s to come for a team that has very little college experience and even less outside shooting. Tunca and Mingo, for as good as they can be, will struggle to score if the players around them aren’t willing or able to knock down shots from deep. And if a team like Fairfield can give them a scare when it didn’t shoot well either, then Big Ten teams could have a field day against the Nittany Lions.
