What are the odds Penn State makes the College Football Playoff?
Expectations are soaring after 2016’s unforgettable run to the Big Ten championship and appearance in the Rose Bowl. So, naturally, the talk all offseason has revolved around one big question: Can the Nittany Lions take it a step further this season and make the College Football Playoff?
It’s not an easy question to answer. And no one will know for sure until Dec. 3. But, at this early point, we thought we’d poll our two resident experts to see what their thoughts were.
So we asked: What are the odds Penn State makes the College Football Playoff? Here’s what they had to say:
John McGonigal: 70 percent
It won’t be easy to make the College Football Playoff — but the Nittany Lions have a lot working in their favor. And I mean a lot. According to Bovada Sportsbook, Penn State has the sixth-best odds to win the national championship. Only Alabama, Southern California, Ohio State, Florida State and Oklahoma stand in front of the Nittany Lions. That’s to win it. Not just make the top 4. Penn State is in that cushy spot — and will likely open the 2017 season as a top-5 ranked team — because of returning talent and momentum. Heisman Trophy contenders Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley guide the offense, with what should be an improved offensive line and deep pass-catching group. Sure, the defense loses pass rushers Evan Schwan and Garrett Sickels and linebacker Brandon Bell to the NFL and cornerback John Reid to injury. But Penn State returns 16 starters — nine on offense and seven defense — from a weird and wild 2016 campaign. Fans might say last season was magical, mythical or an adjective along those lines. But even though the blocked kick returned for a touchdown against Ohio State could be considered fluky and rallying in the second half to take the Big Ten title was unusual, it wasn’t luck. Penn State had the talent to make those moments happen — and for the most part, all those Nittany Lions return.
The team that stands in Penn State’s way is Ohio State. The Nittany Lions’ first six opponents, including Pitt, shouldn’t give them problems. Michigan lost 10 of 11 starters on defense. Rutgers is Rutgers, and Michigan State is rebuilding after a 3-9 season. At home against Nebraska isn’t a gimme, and a road game at Maryland to end the year shouldn’t be overlooked. But Penn State’s trip to the College Football Playoff will come down to its trip to Columbus. And if it ultimately comes down to one game — regardless if the Nittany Lions end up at 12-0 or 11-1 as a result — those final four odds look pretty darn good. Look at the Buckeyes. They finished 11-1, missed out on the Big Ten Championship game and still made it to the playoff. Ironically, Penn State could be in the same position in 2017. I’m not saying Penn State is destined for the College Football Playoff. But the Nittany Lions’ chances are better than most.
Josh Moyer: 35 percent
Do I think Penn State is the most-talented team in the Big Ten? Yes. But luck and strength of schedule also play big roles here — and, outside of Alabama, it’s rare for any team in a major conference to win out. Penn State has the 60th-hardest schedule in the country, per ESPN, and the 43rd most-difficult slate according to CBS. That doesn’t seem ideal. Outside of Michigan and Ohio State, do you see any other potential top-10 opponents here? Because that’s what bailed the Buckeyes out last season — beating No. 7 Oklahoma. The Nittany Lions have some other tough opponents here — Iowa, Nebraska, Pitt — but none are considered elite. So this year, if history repeats itself but Penn State and Ohio State are in opposite positions, the Nittany Lions could still be left out again. Is this a better team than last season? Absolutely. Should it win at least 10 games in the regular season? You bet. But, fair or not, that still might not be enough — and that’s why it’s difficult for me to say there’s even a coin-flip’s chance at the Nittany Lions reaching the CFP.
This story was originally published July 20, 2017 at 5:58 PM with the headline "What are the odds Penn State makes the College Football Playoff?."