Breaking down the 2 key matchups to the Penn State-Iowa game

A lot is on the line when Iowa travels to Happy Valley at 3:30 p.m. Saturday to take on Penn State: The Hawkeyes are still trying to win the West, while the Nittany Lions are hoping to win out and earn a spot in the Rose Bowl.

Here are the key matchups to Saturday’s game that we think should go a long way in determining the winner.

John McGonigal: Penn State’s first-down run defense vs. Iowa

Brent Pry’s unit has a first-down problem, and Iowa will try to take advantage.

The Nittany Lions’ defense has not played the run particularly well. Penn State ranks 74th in the country, allowing 165.1 yards on the ground per game. And in their last two games, the Nittany Lions have surrendered 205 and 224 rushing yards to Michigan State and Indiana, respectively.

A major reason why the Spartans and Hoosiers were successful? First-down consistency. Michigan State ran the ball 17 times on first-and-10 for 89 yards (5.24 yards per attempt), while Indiana recorded 124 yards on 18 such carries (6.89 yards per). Penn State managed one tackle for loss over those 35 attempts and allowed 11 runs of seven yards or more.

That’s not good. Now thankfully for the Nittany Lions, Iowa isn’t an elite team on the ground, ranking 75th in the country in rushing yards per game.

But as James Franklin mentioned in his Tuesday press conference, the Hawkeyes are a traditional Big Ten offense: Run first to set up the play-action. And Iowa has the country’s best tandem at tight end with Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson. The former is a projected first-round pick, while the latter is “nasty” and “brings the mentality to their offense,” according to Franklin.

The Nittany Lions can’t let Iowa get into a rhythm running the football on first down. If they allow that, it’ll be significantly easier on Hawkeyes quarterback Nate Stanley to sell the play-fake, freeze Penn State’s linebackers and hit either Fant or Hockenson downfield.

At that point, things could get ugly.

Josh Moyer: Penn State offensive line vs. Iowa defensive line

Franklin had strong words about the Hawkeyes’ front four on Tuesday: “I think it’s, by far, the best front that we have faced in two years.”

That might be a slight exaggeration with Ohio State and Michigan assembling some talented lines. But the fact is that this is going to be another big challenge for the Nittany Lions’ offensive line. This is an elite defense, and it all starts with Iowa’s front four.

The Hawkeyes have already held four opponents to their respective season lows in points. They’re sacking opponents at the 13th-highest clip in the country, and about once for every six completions. They boast the nation’s No. 3 total defense and the country’s No. 5 scoring defense.

What makes them so effective? Just look at their personnel; there’s no weakness here. The Hawkeyes love to utilize a rotation, not unlike Penn State, and their depth is a whole lot more impressive than the Nittany Lions’. Defensive ends A.J. Epenesa and Anthony Nelson are both long, big and Carl Nassib-esque. Epenesa is 6-foot-5 and 277 pounds while Nelson is 6-foot-7 and 271 pounds. Epenesa ranks second in the conference with six sacks — and he’s technically not even the starter. That’d be Parker Hesse, who had 10.5 tackles for loss last season.

The Nittany Lions have posted some impressive stats against elite competition — just look at the running game against Michigan State — but two dazzling runs and an average of less than 3 yards a carry otherwise isn’t going to lead to a consistent offense.

The Nittany Lions need to win this battle more often than not. But with issues at right tackle, that’s no guarantee. Iowa doesn’t stuff a lot of runs in the backfield, but it’s a master of consistently limiting opposing running backs’ explosiveness. (Of Wisconsin’s 44 rushes, only one went for more than 20 yards — and that was in the game’s final moments.)

If Penn State wins this matchup, it’s going to win the game. If it can’t hold up? This offense is going to struggle — and a third loss in four games won’t do much to ease a restless fan base.

This story was originally published October 24, 2018 at 10:07 AM.