Analyzing Penn State’s 22-10 win over Wisconsin: The Good, the Bad & the Ugly

Before the season, many had Saturday’s game between Penn State and Wisconsin circled as one possibly with College Football Playoff and Big Ten title implications. Instead, it was essentially a play-in game for the Citrus Bowl.

After the Nittany Lions’ commanding 22-10 win over the Badgers, early bowl projections have Penn State pegged for Orlando. CBS Sports, SB Nation and NJ.com all have the Nittany Lions facing Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl — the top non-New Year’s Six bowl for a Big Ten team.

Assuming Penn State beats Rutgers and Maryland to close out the regular season — and the Nittany Lions have an 84.9 percent chance to do so, per ESPN’s Football Power Index — James Franklin’s crew will be sitting at 9-3 and firmly in the top-15. The Citrus Bowl at that point would be all but a lock.

Now, there’s a slim chance the Nittany Lions make it to either the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl as an at-large selection. Penn State would have to be ranked inside the top 12 and to do that, it’d need some help.

But at the very least, as long as Penn State doesn’t trip up against the Scarlet Knights or Terps, it’ll have a chance to get to double-digit wins for the third consecutive season and face a ranked SEC team in the Citrus Bowl. And after last week’s disheartening drubbing at Michigan, that doesn’t sound so bad.

Good

• For those sitting in the metal bleachers or watching from home, Penn State’s fresh looks on offense were a surprise. But those media members who attended Wednesday’s practice knew something different was on its way. In the 15-minute session open to reporters, Penn State worked on three newish plays: A bubble screen to KJ Hamler, a throwback pass to the tight end and a 5-yard out-route to Miles Sanders. Offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne utilized all three against the Badgers, and they worked. The screens to Hamler established a rhythm early, the throwback to Pat Freiermuth went for 14 yards and nearly a touchdown, and Sanders’ 6-yard catch on third-and-5 at Wisconsin’s 43 moved the chains and set up a Jake Pinegar field goal. After seeing it, you have to wonder why it took Rahne this long to dial up screens to Hamler; he’s a big play waiting to happen, someone who needs the ball in space. But hat tip to the playcaller. The Nittany Lions’ anemic pass offense was desperate for a kickstart, and those plays provided it.

• Saturday was special for Robert Windsor. The Penn State defensive tackle — a Fond Du Lac, Wis., native — had six tackles and a career-high two sacks against his homestate squad, breaking out Aaron Rodgers’ discount double check celebration after the second takedown. Windsor, a three-star prospect in high school, didn’t receive an offer from Wisconsin until three weeks before signing day. But by that point, he already had a good relationship with Sean Spencer, and when Franklin and Co. moved from Vanderbilt to Happy Valley, Windsor picked Penn State over the Badgers. After his noteworthy performance against Wisconsin, Windsor broke down the team in the locker room and made one thing clear: “I made the right decision to come here.”

• Wisconsin quarterback Jack Coan, who filled in for an injured Alex Hornibrook, did not play well, tossing two gift interceptions. But Amani Oruwariye and Nick Scott still deserve credit for their picks. Oruwariye secured a ball seemingly thrown right at him before halftime for his third interception on the season. And Scott snagged Coan’s pass into no man’s land on fourth-and-goal from Penn State’s 20 with under a minute left in regulation. It was the senior’s third INT of 2018. “I took three steps, and I was about to take off and put it in for six,” Scott said. “But I said I can’t. ... With that pick, we’ve won the game.”

• Entering Saturday’s game, Penn State ranked 110th in third-down conversion percentage, and a big reason why was the offense’s inefficiencies on first and second down. But Penn State fixed that issue against Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions amassed 201 of their 343 yards on first down. On 30 first-down opportunities, Penn State averaged 6.7 yards a pop.

• With the day dominated by Sanders and the defensive line, don’t forget about Trace McSorley. The signal-caller completed 12 of 15 passes for 136 yards and a touchdown in the first half before exiting with an apparent right leg injury. McSorley returned in the third quarter, though, and made right decision after right decision on Penn State’s base zone read, feeding Sanders the ball. Oh, and the fifth-year senior tied Todd Blackledge’s program-record mark of 29 wins. He’ll likely get No. 30 in Piscataway next weekend.

Bad

• Franklin said after the game that his team “could be more explosive offensively,” and he has a point. The coaching staff defines an “explosive play” as a run of 12-plus yards or a pass of 15-plus yards. Franklin said earlier in the year that Penn State’s weekly goal is to hit explosive plays on 16 percent of its snaps. The Nittany Lions had seven explosive plays on Saturday, only 9.72 percent of Penn State’s 72 total snaps. Now, Franklin’s squad wanted to wear Wisconsin down; making the running game a priority isn’t necessarily conducive to breaking off chunk plays. But the Nittany Lions haven’t hit their explosive play goal since its 18.4 percent clip against Ohio State on Sept. 29, a fair indicator of how the offense has performed in Big Ten play. “Just execution errors. ... Not much has stopped us as far as other teams,” wideout DeAndre Thompkins said. “It’s just ourselves.”

Ugly

• Penn State had possession, leading 22-10 with two minutes to go in regulation. Wisconsin had one timeout. Run three dives with Sanders, kill the clock and get out with a win. But of course it’s never that easy with the Nittany Lions. Rahne for some reason called a play out the “Lion” package, and it did not work. McSorley lined up wide as a receiver, Sanders came in motion, and he and Stevens had a miscommunication on Michal Menet’s snap. The ball fell to the grass, and Wisconsin recovered at the Nittany Lion 30-yard line. Franklin said from what he saw, the fumble was caused by a “mistimed” motion. But it should have never happened in the first place. There’s no reason to overcomplicate things in that situation. After the fumble, Franklin dropped his head in disgust. “As a head coach, that is the thing you struggle with,” he said after the game. “We had a great win and you want to enjoy the win, but the game didn’t end the way you want it to end. ... I take great pride in how we handle situational football.” And in that situation, the playcall and execution failed.