Breaking down Penn State’s betting odds vs. Rutgers

For the fourth time this season, Penn State is more than a three-touchdown favorite.

The Nittany Lions opened as 26-point favorites against Rutgers on Sunday, according to VegasInsider.com, one day after a commanding 22-10 win over Wisconsin. Early money is on James Franklin’s squad, with the line sitting at Penn State -27 as of Monday afternoon. The Nittany Lions have a 61 percent chance to cover at -27, per Covers.com.

The over/under is set at 52.5. Despite dominating the tempo of Saturday’s win, the Nittany Lions managed only 22 points. Over the last six games, Penn State is averaging 22.5 points. However, the Scarlet Knight defense has been a sieve in Big Ten play, allowing 34.14 points per conference contest.

The early money line stands at Penn State -5000. In other words, a $100 bet would yield a $2 profit. The Nittany Lions own a 96.8 percent chance to win, per ESPN’s Football Power Index.

The Scarlet Knights aren’t strangers to being underdogs; Rutgers (1-9) has been favored in just one game this year, a 35-7 season-opening win over Texas State as 16-point favorites. Otherwise, Chris Ash’s crew is 4-5 against the spread. Not great.

However, Rutgers boasts a 4-2 mark against the spread when double-digit underdogs. The Scarlet Knights have covered in their last three games, too, making bettors happy in losses to Michigan (42-7, +36.5), Wisconsin (31-17, +29) and Northwestern (18-15, +20).

Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions are 2-1 against the spread when favored by 24 points or more this season. Penn State barely escaped against Appalachian State in Week 1 before pummeling Kent State and Illinois.

James Franklin’s squad is 2-2 against the spread against Rutgers. Penn State failed to cover last year as 31-point favorites in a 35-6 win, but did so in 2016 (39-0, -25) and 2015 (28-3, -8.5).

The Nittany Lions and Scarlet Knights kick off at noon at HighPoint Solutions Stadium in Piscataway, N.J. The game will be televised on the Big Ten Network.