How can Rutgers upset Penn State football? Here are the 2 key matchups

No. 14 Penn State could be on its way to a New Year’s Six bowl but, for that to happen, the Nittany Lions first need to get past Big Ten cellar dweller Rutgers. James Franklin often likes to say he takes no opponent for granted, so how can Penn State avoid the upset?

Here are the key matchups to Saturday’s game in Piscataway, N.J., that we think will go a long way in determining the winner:

Josh Moyer: Rutgers QB Artur Sitkowski vs. Penn State defense

Listen, there’s really no way to sugarcoat this: Rutgers is a terrible team. Just awful. If it played in the MAC, it’d be lucky to be a middle-of-the-road conference squad. It’s No. 127 nationally in total offense and No. 105 nationally in total defense; it’s No. 85 nationally in total defense and No. 127 in total offense.

There are no strengths to this team, just varying degrees of weakness. That’s why, to find the key matchup here, you need to throw all those numbers and rankings out. Penn State is a 27-point favorite and, as we’ve shown before, big upsets have one commonality — the underdog’s quarterback goes off.

So that’s the key matchup in this game. It’s not because Artur Sitkowski has the edge on teams when it comes to third down — he doesn’t — and it’s not because Sitkowski has shown marked improvement over the season. (He hasn’t.) It’s because, for any big underdog to upset a big favorite, the quarterback almost certainly needs to have a career game.

Need some convincing? Let’s look at the biggest upsets this season. Old Dominion, a 28-point underdog against Virginia Tech, pulled out the 49-35 stunner after Blake LaRussa threw for 495 yards and accounted for five touchdowns. Oregon State, a 24.5-point underdog, rallied to beat Colorado 41-35 after Jake Luton had 310 yards, three TDs and no picks. And last year, 45-point underdog Howard upset UNLV after QB Caylin Newton had 190 rushing yards and 73 percent of the offense.

There are exceptions — BYU-Wisconsin, for instance — but it’s incredibly rare for an underdog to pull off the upset in a defensive struggle against a top-50 scoring offense. And Penn State is No. 26.

Rutgers’ potential upset over PSU isn’t impossible, but it’s very, very unlikely. If it does somehow happen, however, odds are it’s going to start with the man under center.

And a friendly reminder: Sitkowski has a 1:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season.

John McGonigal: Rutgers RB Raheem Blackshear vs. Penn State second level

There’s a reason why Rutgers is a double-digit underdog for the seventh time this season: The Scarlet Knights, for all the reasons laid out above, are putrid, on offense especially. Its offensive S&P+ rating ranks 126th in the country, ahead of only Akron, Charlotte, UTSA and Central Michigan.

Rarely does Rutgers move the ball. But when it does, it’s through Raheem Blackshear.

Blackshear is the only player in the Big Ten to lead their team in both rushing and receiving. His 810 scrimmage yards (478 rushing, 332 receiving) accounts for 29.51 percent of the Scarlet Knights’ offense.

The Rutgers offensive staff likes to use him in different ways, too. Two weeks ago, when Blackshear went nuts for 200 yards against Wisconsin (162 receiving), the 5-foot-10 speedster hauled in at least four screen passes, caught a designed swing pass, recorded a 38-yard catch-and-run on a 15-yard out route and got involved with jet sweeps, as well.

James Franklin said at his Tuesday press conference that Blackshear “jumps out to us,” later mentioning that he knows the former Pennsylvania prospect well. Blackshear went to Archbishop Wood High School with Penn State offensive lineman Ryan Bates and linebacker Jake Cooper, and the Nittany Lions actually recruited the Warminster native. However, according to his 247 Sports page, Blackshear did not receive a scholarship offer from Franklin.

Instead, the relied-upon running back decommitted from Michigan State days before signing day and chose Rutgers over Army, Navy, Buffalo and Syracuse. And two years into his college career, he is the focal point of the Scarlet Knight offense.

Again, let’s be honest. This game probably isn’t going to be close. But if Rutgers stands a chance at keeping this thing respectable, it needs Blackshear to rip through Penn State’s second level and generate chunk plays.