How can Idaho come close to an upset over Penn State football? Here are the 2 key matchups

No. 15 Penn State is expected to make quick work of Idaho in the season opener at 3:30 p.m. Saturday — the Nittany Lions are 39.5-point favorites — but, if PSU wants to win big, it still needs to dominate its matchups.

Here are the two key matchups to Saturday’s game that we think will directly to determine the outcome:

Josh Moyer: Idaho QB Mason Petrino vs. Penn State secondary

I wanted to go with “$10-per-hour parking attendants vs. confused drivers” as the key matchup to this game, but I thought it might be better to stick to the gridiron. And if there’s one thing we’ve learned from the greatest upsets in college football history — which, if Idaho wins, this would be — it’s that these huge upsets are often sparked by a lot of turnovers or a superhuman underdog quarterback.

Let’s go through a brief history lesson before specifically discussing Penn State-Idaho. In Appalachian State’s historic upset over Michigan in 2007 — when the Mountaineers were an FCS team like Idaho — quarterback Amanti Edwards accounted for 75 percent of the offense (227 passing yards, 62 rushing yards) along with every single score (three pass TDs, one rush TD). He certainly wasn’t the reason App State came away with the 34-32 win, but he played a critical role.

In 2017, FCS Howard upset UNLV in what was college football’s greatest upset on paper — Howard was a 45.5-point underdog — thanks in large part to quarterback Caylin Newton rushing for a team-leading 190 yards, throwing for 140 more and combining for three TDs. And, last season, FBS-upstart Old Dominion shocked Virginia Tech 49-35 after quarterback Blake LaRussa threw for 495 yards and accounted for five touchdowns.

For a team like Idaho to beat Penn State, virtually everything needs to go right for the Vandals and wrong for the Nittany Lions. And, for things to go right on offense, it absolutely has to start with dual-threat QB Mason Petrino, who stands at 5-foot-11 — an inch shorter than the Baltimore Ravens’ Trace McSorley. Petrino ran it last season around the same ratio McSorley ran it in 2017 and, while Petrino is more of a passer, there’s also a sort of X-factor at play here.

Petrino reportedly played through “chronic shoulder problems” the last two seasons, but he felt a lot better this spring. “My arm has gotten a lot stronger. It’s the strongest it’s been in the last two-and-a-half years,” Petrino told The Spokesman-Review.

Idaho has nothing to lose and it should start aggressive. Penn State boasts a solid secondary, and it’s hard to see how Petrino — who threw for 1,933 yards last year and rushed for 245 — could possibly beat out the likes of John Reid and Tariq Castro-Fields. But if Petrino somehow wins this battle? Well then, Idaho’s minuscule chance at re-enacting David vs. Goliath just went up exponentially.

Obviously, I wouldn’t count on that happening. But the road map to a historic upset would have to heavily involve Petrino.

Jon Sauber: Penn State QB Sean Clifford vs. Idaho pass defense

Make no mistake about it, this game is all about Sean Clifford for the Nittany Lions. His play will have a massive impact on how well Penn State plays this season and that begins week one.

Idaho shouldn’t pose much of a threat on defense. The Vandals allowed 37.5 points per game as a team last season, and lost their final game of the season to Florida, giving up 49 points on defense.

With that in mind, Clifford should be in for a big day. His debut as a starter will be an opportunity to build momentum to start the season and build confidence in his ability to lead Penn State’s offense. Clifford and the other Penn State skill position players are young, but talented, and will have two weeks to show what their talent is capable of against clearly inferior opponents.

Clifford may only have five career completions on seven attempts, but he’s unlikely to face an easier opponent in his Penn State career. He has plenty of weapons to choose from on the outside. Wide receivers K.J. Hamler, Jahan Dotson, Justin Shorter, and frankly, most of the Penn State receivers, shouldn’t have much of an issue creating separation against the Vandals. If they’re able to get open like they should, Clifford should have an easy time finding them and putting up big numbers. He should be able to pass for at least 300 yards Saturday, assuming he’s in the game long enough to do so. There’s a chance Penn State gets up so big early that the Nittany Lions are able to save their young starter some snaps, and that’s a valid reason not to have a big statistical day.

Regardless, Clifford should look like a high-level starting quarterback against a bad Idaho pass defense.

This story was originally published August 28, 2019 at 5:34 PM.