How can Maryland upset Penn State football? Here are the 2 key matchups to Friday’s game
No. 12 Penn State is expected to slip past Maryland at 8 p.m. Friday (on FS1) — the Nittany Lions are 6.5-point favorites — but, if PSU wants to win big, it needs to dominate its matchups.
Here are the two key matchups to Friday night’s game in College Park, Md., that we think will directly to determine the outcome:
Josh Moyer: Maryland offensive line vs. Penn State defensive line
Take a glance at Maryland’s top-10 nationally ranked rushing offense, and you might think the Terps’ offensive line must be pretty good.
Well, it’s not. Not even remotely close. So let’s set you straight — and give you some numbers to chew on.
Maryland is ranked No. 111 nationally in tackles for loss allowed with 7.67 per game. According to Football Outsiders, which tries to calculate what yards the offensive line is responsible for, Maryland has the No. 81 run-blocking offensive line this year and the No. 63 pass-blocking OL.
Oh, and senior right guard Terrance Davis is out for at least a month after suffering a sprained MCL against Temple.
This could very well be the best defensive line Maryland faces all season. At least, on paper, it sure looks that way. Penn State is No. 4 nationally in tackles for loss per game (10.3), and Maryland hasn’t yet faced a player like Yetur Gross-Matos, a potential top-10 NFL draft pick.
When this defensive line is on, the entire defense follows. Against Pitt, for example, Penn State didn’t get pressure on the quarterback in the first half. In the second half, Kenny Pickett was sacked three times and hurried a lot more often — including twice during a stretch of three plays on first-and-goal — and the Nittany Lions earned the second-half shutout.
If Penn State dominates this matchup, which it very well has the potential to do, Maryland will have to live and die on the explosive play. Because it will not consistently move the ball against this defense.
Last season, Penn State beat Maryland 38-3 after racking up 15 tackles for loss and five sacks. And, it’s worth pointing out, that offensive line lost a seventh-round NFL draft pick in Derwin Gray and two other players, in Damian Prince and Brendan Moore, who were honorable mention all-conference at one point in their respective careers.
Put simply, Penn State dominated this offensive line before. Temple dominated it two weeks ago, to the tune of 10 tackles for loss and four sacks. And Maryland’s OL is in even worse shape now.
If Maryland can get a stalemate here, or at least not get annihilated, it stands a chance. But Penn State could exploit this UMD weakness for a big, big win. That’s why this matchup is key.
Jon Sauber: Penn State QB Sean Clifford vs. Maryland pass rush
Penn State starting quarterback Sean Clifford has had a fairly mediocre start to the season.
The redshirt sophomore has put up good numbers, but you wouldn’t know that from watching the team play. He’s thrown for 781 yards, six touchdowns, and has yet to throw an interception through three games this season. However, Clifford has looked unsettled in the pocket and has missed wide open receivers on deep shots on numerous occasions. His pocket awareness has been a major issue for the Penn State passing game.
Clifford has a tendency to panic when the pocket starts to shift around him. He moves frantically, sometimes into his own linemen, in search of enough space to get a throw off. He needs to stay calm and cool in those situations, understanding that the pocket may be moving, but it might not always be collapsing.
That should lead to him shifting with it as he searches downfield for his open man. Of course, Clifford also needs to be calmer as he works through his progressions. He often looks at his first read and becomes unsettled if it isn’t open. He isn’t always panicked, but when he is, it’s usually a bad sign for Penn State. The redshirt sophomore quarterback should become more comfortable as he continues through his Penn State career. Considering he’s only started three games, it’s not overly surprising that Clifford hasn’t always been poised as a passer.
This week’s’ matchup with Maryland will be a major test for Clifford in that regard. The Terrapins are tied for 14th in sacks in the nation with 13, according to the NCAA’s official website. More importantly, they’re tied for sixth in the nation with 4.33 sacks per game according to the same site.
If the Terps get that kind of pressure on Clifford, his response will be telling. If Clifford reacts like he did in the first three games, with uncomfortable movement and panic, Maryland will have a field day in the Penn State backfield. If he maintains his composure and stays calm when the pocket begins to collapse, Friday night will be his breakout performance and a game that shows what the Penn State offense is capable of.
This story was originally published September 25, 2019 at 5:48 PM.