How can Michigan State upset Penn State football? Here are Saturday’s 2 key matchups
No. 6 Penn State boasts the clear advantage against Michigan State in Saturday afternoon’s Big Ten battle — the Nittany Lions are 6.5-point favorites — but, then again, the Nittany Lions were double-digit favorites each of the past two years against the Spartans and still lost. So, if PSU wants to win on the field and not on paper, it needs to dominate its matchups.
Here are the two key matchups to Saturday’s game (3:30 p.m., ABC) that we think will directly to determine the outcome:
Josh Moyer: Penn State QB Sean Clifford vs. Michigan State secondary
Take a look at the Nittany Lions’ last two meetings with Sparty — both losses — and there’s a pretty clear similarity.
Penn State’s passing game sputtered in some way.
In 2017, Trace McSorley threw for 381 yards and three touchdowns — but he also tossed three picks in the 27-24 loss. In 2018, McSorley threw for 192 yards and fumbled once — while amassing his second-lowest QBR (41.6) of the season in a 21-17 defeat.
McSorley was one of Penn State’s all-time best quarterbacks, but Mark Dantonio had his number. So, for the blue-and-white to get past Michigan State this Saturday, it’s going to fall to redshirt sophomore Sean Clifford.
This Clifford-led offense has lived and died on the explosive play and, if there’s one thing Sparty’s defense has done well this year, it’s been limiting the big play. The Spartans are allowing just 9.49 yards per completion this season, the second-lowest rate in the nation behind only Ohio State (9.45).
And, as James Franklin said Tuesday, “If you’re able to hit your big plays, you’re going to have success.” And if you’re not? It’s going to be hard to score more than 24 points. In fact, in Franklin’s five meetings with Dantonio, Penn State has scored more than 24 points only once — in Franklin’s sole win vs. Dantonio in 2016, when Penn State won 45-12 and MSU finished 3-9.
All that being said, Michigan State’s defense has reached a crossroads of sorts. Early in the season, there was talk that this defense might be one of the best of the Dantonio era, rivaling the 2013 Rose Bowl defense. Then it allowed 30-plus points in three straight games. And, against Wisconsin, QB Jack Coan completed 18 of 21 passes.
But, for Michigan State, the talent here still isn’t in question. Cornerback Josiah Scott was a first-team preseason All-Big Ten selection, while fellow CB Josh Butler has started games in each of the last three seasons. Safety David Dowell boasts 30 career starts and one all-conference selection, and safety Xavier Henderson has been called the “next Khari Willis,” a former team captain and fourth-round NFL draft pick.
Both the Penn State offense and Michigan State defense have immense potential but, at times, both have also appeared lost this season. In some ways, this matchup is a wild card. We’ve seen Clifford play near-perfect ball against Maryland and decidedly mediocre football against Iowa; we’ve watched Michigan State smother Arizona State but struggle vs. Indiana.
Both units are trying to find more consistency. And whoever finds it first and wins this battle has a strong opportunity to win Saturday afternoon’s game.
Jon Sauber: Michigan State QB Brian Lewerke vs. Penn State secondary
Michigan State will have to air it out Saturday afternoon to have a chance to upset Penn State.
The Nittany Lions’ defense has been one of the nation’s best units against the run, and Michigan State hasn’t been great at moving the ball on the ground. Penn State is only allowing 66.3 rushing yards per game through seven games, good for fourth in the nation. The Spartans are averaging 117.1 rushing yards per game, putting them at No. 110 in the country out of 130 FBS schools. It’s safe to say it’ll be a surprise if Michigan State runs the ball well Saturday.
That means the Spartans will have to go through the air to generate offense, relying on senior quarterback Brian Lewerke.
Lewerke has been good this season, putting up a quality performance against Ohio State three weeks ago. However, against one of the nation’s top defenses and a comparable one to Penn State’s, Lewerke struggled. Against Wisconsin, he completed 7 of 16 passes for 53 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. He’s had a week to recover from the performance with the Spartans on bye last week, but he’ll have to vastly improve for Michigan State to have a chance this week.
Fortunately for Lewerke and the Spartans, he’s 2-0 in his career against Penn State with prolific performances in both games. The senior quarterback lit up the Nittany Lions in 2017 in a 27-24 win that featured a rain delay longer than three hours. He threw for 400 passing yards and two touchdowns on 33-of-56 passing to take down the then-No. 7 Nittany Lions. In 2018, Lewerke was good once again. He led the Spartans to a 21-17 victory after throwing for 259 yards and two touchdowns on 24-of-52 passing against the then-No. 8 Nittany Lions.
The biggest difference this time around is who he won’t have on the outside. Former Michigan State wide receiver Felton Davis was dominant in both of those games. He had 20 receptions for 281 yards and three touchdowns in the two games and was a major thorn in the side of the Penn State secondary.
Still, Lewerke has shown he can step up against Penn State in the past, and he shouldn’t be discounted heading into Saturday’s matchup.
This story was originally published October 23, 2019 at 4:36 PM.
