5 things to watch in Saturday’s Penn State vs. Michigan State college football game
The No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions (7-0) will take on the the Michigan State Spartans (4-3) at 3:30 p.m. Saturday (ABC) at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Mich. Here are five things you should keep an eye on during the Big Ten battle:
Penn State WR KJ Hamler, explosive plays
KJ Hamler, one of the Big Ten’s top playmakers, is finally figuring heavily into Penn State’s gameplan.
Prior to Sept. 27, Hamler never had more than five catches in a game. In three of the past four contests, he’s had at least six. He also has five touchdowns in the past four games.
He should play another big role in Saturday’s game against Michigan State. James Franklin said last week that the goal is to get Hamler 10-12 touches per game — including catches, runs and returns — but Hamler’s trademark explosive play might not come easy against Sparty.
Mark Dantonio utilizes a Cover-4 defense, which tends to take away deep vertical passes while giving space to more underneath routes and minimal gains. Last season, that meant Hamler had more touches — he tied a career-high at the time with five catches — but he wound up with only 66 yards. And, overall, Michigan State has again done a good job this season of taking away those long passing plays.
It’s ranked No. 2 nationally in yards allowed per completion (9.49) and last season, for the most part, the Spartans bottled up Hamler. Trace McSorley’s first pass of the game went for a 23-yard gain to the versatile wideout. After that? Hamler didn’t have a gain longer than 13 yards again until the second-to-last play of the game.
Hamler is this offense’s spark. If he gets going, it’s great news for the offense. If he’s limited? This could be a lot closer than Penn State fans want to see.
Noah Cain and Penn State’s RB rotation
There might not have been a Penn State fan in Beaver Stadium last week who failed to ask at least once, “Where’s Noah Cain?”
The true freshman running back is one of the few consistent forces in the Nittany Lions’ offense, and he racked up just five carries against Michigan on Saturday — despite amassing a combined 34 carries and 207 yards in the previous two games, against Purdue and Iowa. James Franklin didn’t offer much in the way of an explanation, but he did reiterate that this staff remains incredibly high on the Louisiana native.
“He’s been great. He’s been really good,” Franklin said Tuesday at his weekly press conference. “We’re as pleased with him as you guys are, and we’re as pleased with him as the fans are, as well, but we also have a lot of confidence in those three other guys, as well.”
Whatever the reason for Cain’s absence, he seems to better match up against the Spartans. Sparty’s run defense isn’t as good as Iowa or Michigan, and Penn State might have to rely more on sustained drives than explosive plays.
Take away each running back’s longest play, and it’s clear just how much more consistent Cain has been. Without that longest run, Cain is averaging 4.95 yards per carry — compared to Devyn Ford’s 4.53 ypc, Journey Brown’s 4.39 ypc and Ricky Slade’s 2.1 ypc.
If Cain doesn’t factor into the gameplan more against Michigan State, and the running game fails to take off, Franklin and offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne are going to be on the receiving end of a lot of second-guessing. All eyes will be on Cain come Saturday.
Special teams — and fakes
Last season, James Franklin told the media ahead of the meeting with the Spartans: “They are willing to run a fake at any time. ... Obviously, we are showing them to our players to get prepared because they have a history of doing these things.”
Of course then, near the end of the first quarter, Mark Dantonio drew up a fake punt that went for a 26-yard run and set up Michigan State’s first touchdown.
Dantonio still isn’t afraid to run fakes and trick plays on special teams. (Heck, he also attempted a fake field goal in that game, but the pass fell incomplete.) And you can bet Penn State will be aware of potential onside kicks, fake field goals and fake punts — especially with a new-and-improved special-teams coordinator in Joe Lorig.
“We are going to be working all week like crazy — fake punts, onsides kicks, things like that,” Franklin said earlier this week. “They just always seem to have something in their package.”
Penn State might even have a trick or two up its sleeve, as well. Against Michigan, returner KJ Hamler laid down in the end zone during a return that Journey Brown ended up fair-catching — so don’t be surprised to see a little “trickeration” from either team on special teams this weekend.
Stars, future NFL players on defense
Michigan State may not be consistent on defense this year — it allowed 30-plus points in three straight games — but that doesn’t mean there’s no talent here. In fact, more Spartans appear on ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr.’s big board than Nittany Lions.
Regardless, on both defenses, there’s a lot of future NFL talent.
For Sparty, Raequan Williams is ranked as Kiper’s No. 8 defensive tackle while Joe Bachie is listed as the No. 10 inside linebacker. DE Kenny Willekes may not have made Kiper’s cut, but the speedy end who racked up 20.5 tackles for loss last season is listed as a projected second-round pick by WalterFootball.
For the Nittany Lions, junior Yetur Gross-Matos is Kiper’s No. 2 defensive end and No. 16 overall player. DT Robert Windsor didn’t make Kiper’s list, but he still made former NFL exec Gil Brandt’s preseason top-5 list of senior defensive tackles.
In other words, if you watch next year’s NFL draft, you’ll see a number of players taken from Saturday’s matchup — and that’s not even including future stars such as Penn State sophomore LB Micah Parsons, who’s virtually a lock to be a 2021 first-rounder. So keep an eye on those players: They could have a big impact Saturday and, odds are, you’ll be hearing their names again in the future.
Michigan State QB Brian Lewerke vs. Penn State QB Sean Clifford
Both run defenses are among the best in the country — Penn State is ranked No. 4 nationally; Michigan State is No. 27 — while the passing defenses aren’t quite as good. Michigan State is No. 35; Penn State is No. 59.
But feel free to forget those numbers, and just keep this in mind: A lot will fall on the shoulders of these two quarterbacks Saturday.
Lewerke has historically been strong against Penn State. In 2017, he threw for 400 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Last season wasn’t as impressive, but he still had 259 yards and another pair of scores — including the game-winning 25-yard TD on third-and-2 with 19 seconds left in regulation.
On the flip side, Trace McSorley didn’t fare as well against Sparty. He tossed three picks in 2017 and had his second-lowest QBR of the 2018 season against Michigan State. This year’s starter, Sean Clifford, hasn’t always posted incredible stats this season — but he’s done an incredible job with ball security. He’s thrown just two interceptions in 184 attempts.
If Lewerke’s on top of his game again, Penn State could be in trouble. Likewise, if Clifford has a big game, it’s hard not to see the Nittany Lions winning. We’ll see if experience wins out Saturday, or if Clifford can keep his turnover-free streak alive.
This story was originally published October 24, 2019 at 1:32 PM.
