College Football Playoff rankings are in: Where does Penn State stand in the playoff race now?
Penn State is heading the wrong way in the College Football Playoff rankings.
The Nittany Lions (8-1) fell five spots to No. 9 in the latest CFP rankings, which were released Tuesday night. The drop wasn’t a huge surprise, considering the team’s 31-26 loss to Minnesota, but it’s also no time for fans of the blue-and-white to panic.
Realistically, it didn’t matter where the committee put Penn State this week. James Franklin’s squad still almost certainly controls its own destiny.
If Penn State wins out — meaning it beats No. 2 Ohio State on Nov. 23 and the Big Ten West contender in the conference title game — then the Nittany Lions should still earn a playoff berth. For one, it would likely still have four wins over ranked teams at that point, giving it a very strong resume. And, two, a one-loss Big Ten champ should still boast the edge over a one-loss Pac-12 champ and the Big 12 champ.
So, for Penn State, the ceiling this season remains the same. The biggest difference this week compared to last week is where the floor might be. If Penn State had beaten Minnesota, it appeared as if the Rose Bowl was the most likely destination for the team out of Happy Valley. Now, a loss to the Buckeyes could send it to a postesason destination outside of the New Year’s Six.
As long as Penn State beats Indiana on Saturday, the Nov. 23 PSU-OSU game will essentially act as a play-in to the Big Ten championship. A lot could soon be on the line.
New Year’s Six chances
Last week, everyone had Penn State pegged for the Rose Bowl. But, then again, everyone also thought Penn State would beat Minnesota. Here’s the national media’s bowl projections right now:
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura: vs. Virginia, Capital One Orange Bowl (8 p.m. Dec. 30)
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach: vs. Auburn, Outback Bowl (1 p.m. Jan. 1)
USA Today’s Erick Smith: vs. Auburn, Outback Bowl (1 p.m. Jan. 1)
The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel: vs. Texas A&M, Outback Bowl (1 p.m. Jan. 1)
CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm: vs. Texas A&M, Outback Bowl (1 p.m. Jan. 1)
Stadium’s Brett McMurphy: vs. Auburn, Citrus Bowl (1 p.m. Jan. 1)
The Sporting News’ Bill Bender: vs. Texas A&M, TaxSlayer Bowl (7 p.m. Jan. 2)
SB Nation’s Jason Kirk: vs. Florida, Citrus Bowl (1 p.m. Jan. 1)
247 Sports’ Brad Crawford: vs. Auburn, Outback Bowl (1 p.m. Jan. 1)
(Note: All projections were made before the playoff rankings were released, and all rankings reflect the committee’s new top 25.)
Rooting interest
At its base level, Penn State wants to see teams ahead of it fall — and teams it already beat come out on top. That gives the Nittany Lions an opportunity to move up while, at the same time, strengthening its playoff resume.
Here are a few games to watch this weekend, who to root for, and why:
Michigan State at No. 15 Michigan; noon, Saturday, FOX: Root for the Michigan Wolverines. If Penn State wants to get to a good bowl, it needs its strength of resume to be top-notch — which means it needs as many wins as possible over top-ranked teams. If Sparty wins, that would knock Michigan down in the rankings. So the bigger the win by the Wolverines, the better it is for Penn State. Because Michigan State’s record stands at 4-5, a win over Michigan won’t impress committee members enough to have a substantially positive impact on PSU.
Wake Forest at No. 3 Clemson; 3:30 p.m., Saturday, ABC: Root for the Demon Deacons. Odds are Penn State controls its own destiny if it wins out — but a little insurance is never a bad thing. If Clemson loses to Wake Forest, it’d almost certainly be out of the playoff. That would give a one-loss team from the Big Ten a little more breathing room for one of the top-four spots. A close game wouldn’t hurt, either.
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 13 Baylor; 7:30 p.m., Saturday, ABC: Root for the Sooners. See the game above. The Bears remain undefeated and, while other teams such as No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Utah remain the mix, those programs are more than three-TD favorites this weekend. Baylor-Oklahoma should be a lot closer and, if Baylor gets past this test, it has a solid shot at the playoff. Sure, it still has No. 19 Texas — and it might play Oklahoma again in the conference championship — but a loss now would certainly provide some Big Ten insurance, just in case.
No. 4 Georgia at No. 12 Auburn; 3:30 pm., Saturday, CBS: Root for the Tigers. If the season ended tomorrow, the Bulldogs would be in the playoff. The SEC is a threat to get two teams in the playoff so, for that threat to be neutralized, Georgia has to lose. A two-loss SEC team isn’t getting in over a one-loss Big Ten team. But, right now, the Bulldogs have one loss.
CFP Rankings
Here’s a full list of the College Football Playoff rankings, the second edition of which were released Tuesday night:
1. LSU (9-0)
2. Ohio State (9-0)
3. Clemson (10-0)
4. Georgia (8-1)
5. Alabama (8-1)
6. Oregon (8-1)
7. Utah (8-1)
8. Minnesota (9-0)
9. Penn State (8-1)
10. Oklahoma (8-1)
11. Florida (8-2)
12. Auburn (7-2)
13. Baylor (9-0)
14. Wisconsin (7-2)
15. Michigan (7-2)
16. Notre Dame (7-2)
17. Cincinnati (8-1)
18. Memphis (8-1)
19. Texas (6-3)
20. Iowa (6-3)
21. Boise State (8-1)
22. Oklahoma State (6-3)
23. Navy (7-1)
24. Kansas State (6-3)
25. Appalachian State (8-1)
This story was originally published November 12, 2019 at 7:19 PM.
