How can Indiana upset Penn State football? Here are Saturday’s 2 key matchups
No. 9 Penn State has the clear advantage against Indiana in Saturday’s Big Ten game — the Nittany Lions are 14.5-point favorites — but, if PSU wants to win on the field and not on paper, it still needs to dominate its matchups.
Here are the two key matchups to Saturday’s game (noon, ABC) that we think will directly to determine the outcome:
Josh Moyer: Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey vs. Penn State secondary
The reasoning here is pretty obvious. Penn State is coming off one of its most miserable pass-defense performances of the century.
The Nittany Lions allowed Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan to complete 90 percent of his passes — 18 of 20 — for the worst rate allowed by PSU since at least 2000. (Well, second-worst rate if you count 2015 Army’s 1-for-1 passing performance, which technically resulted in a 100 percent completion rate.)
Penn State looked silly in zone coverage in the first half of that game and, while man coverage in the second half was better, it still fell short of the Nittany Lions’ own expectations. And it’s not going to get much easier this weekend.
On paper, Indiana is the most prolific passing offense Penn State has faced. The Hoosiers are ranked No. 15 nationally by averaging 308 passing yards per game. The best passing offense — statistically — Penn State has gone against to this point is Pitt’s No. 46-ranked unit. (Minnesota is No. 60 and threw for 100 yards more against PSU than its season average.)
Now, there’s a few caveats here to add. Sure, Minnesota and Indiana operate under different offensive philosophies. And, while the Hoosiers’ receivers are talented, they’re not the caliber of Minnesota’s Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman, who are one of the nation’s top pairs. But even Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi said, back in September, that the weak link on the Penn State defense is the secondary — and that’s what the Hoosiers will be targeting Saturday.
And, even if IU doesn’t have its starting quarterback, it’s no push-over. Michael Penix Jr. suffered a season-ending injury Nov. 2, undergoing surgery on the joint where the collarbone and breastbone meet, but Peyton Ramsey has shined in his absence. In fact, he even started every game last year and was a freshman All-American the year before — before Penix Jr. had just beaten him out in the fall.
Ramsey doesn’t have the cannon of Penix Jr., but he’s effective on short and intermediate routes. He boasts a 72 percent completion rate, which is the fifth-best rate in the country. And, last season against Penn State, he guided Indiana to a third-quarter lead before falling 33-28 while taking the majority of reps over Penix Jr.
In that game, Ramsey was 26-of-36 passing for 236 yards, one touchdown and a pick.
“I do think the Penix kid was taking it to a whole other level; I think he’s got a chance to be special,” Penn State coach James Franklin said. “But we’ve been very impressed with Ramsey. We’ve been very impressed with him. He’s doing a nice job. He’s got good mobility. He’s making big-time throws.”
Indiana has faced better pass defenses this season. Ohio State is ranked as the nation’s best — and Ramsey threw for 162 yards and an interception there. Michigan State and Northwestern also boast talented defensive backfields, and Penix/Ramsey combined to throw for 556 yards and four TDs while completing 75 percent of their passes against them.
Ultimately, the deciding factor in last Saturday’s game against Minnesota was the Gophers’ passing offense. And with Indiana having six passing targets who boast at least 20 receptions — including team leader Whop Philyor, who has 59 catches for 813 yards — Ramsey has no shortage of options.
If Penn State’s secondary has another performance like last week, then this game has “letdown” written all over it. But it’ll have a chance to make amends; it just won’t come easy.
Jon Sauber: Indiana RB Stevie Scott III vs. Penn State run defense
Penn State’s run defense was one of the few strong points of last week’s 31-26 loss to Minnesota. The Nittany Lions held the Golden Gophers to 121 yards on 40 carries in the game and limited lead back Rodney Smith to 51 yards on 18 carries. Smith, while productive, didn’t present a unique challenge. He’s 5-foot-11 and weighs 210 pounds, according to ESPN.
Indiana running back Stevie Scott III is similarly productive, but is a very different challenge. Scott is listed at 6-foot-2 and 231 pounds on the Indiana team website, a massive running back. That kind of size is unusual at running back and is more typical of a linebacker, which makes sense, since Scott was recruited to IU as an athlete who could play either position. His impressive size and power will present an interesting matchup for the Penn State defense.
The true sophomore isn’t just big and strong. He’s been very good for Indiana this season, carrying over his impressive freshman season when he was named an honorable mention All-Big Ten player by the coaches and the media. He finished his freshman year with 1,137 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, and is set to post similar numbers as a sophomore.
Scott has 737 yards and nine touchdowns through nine games and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, the exact mark he averaged as a freshman. The biggest question for Scott to answer, is if he can perform against the Big Ten’s best defenses.
Scott has rushed for 75 yards on 24 carries this season against Michigan State and Ohio State this season, his two worst performances of the year. It remains to be seen if he can be at his best against the best, and this weekend will be another test for him. Penn State has one of the best run defenses in the country and has the size to handle Scott.
This matchup will go a long way in determining if Penn State will run away with this one, or if Scott and the Hoosiers will give the Nittany Lions all they can handle.
This story was originally published November 13, 2019 at 5:47 PM.
