Breaking down where Penn State stands in the College Football Playoff race after Tuesday’s rankings
Penn State is in better shape now in the College Football Playoff rankings than it was a week ago — but the Nittany Lions’ future still won’t largely be decided until Saturday.
Penn State (9-1) rose one spot to No. 8 in the latest CFP rankings, which were released Tuesday night. The short jump wasn’t a big shock, considering Minnesota dropped a 23-19 decision to Iowa and subsequently dropped two spots to No. 10. But what really matters for Penn State is what happens Saturday.
James Franklin’s squad is set to face No. 2 Ohio State on the road at noon Saturday. Should the Nittany Lions somehow win that game, in which they’re 18.5-point underdogs, then they would earn a spot in the Big Ten championship — as long as they also beat Rutgers in the final week of the season. Win the Big Ten title, and then Penn State would almost certainly earn a playoff spot.
So, yes, at this point, the CFP rankings really don’t matter a whole lot to the Nittany Lions. Although Pac-12 teams such as No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Utah are currently ranked ahead of Penn State, odds are PSU would move past both of them next week if it defeats the nation’s No. 2 team in the Buckeyes.
Really, Penn State’s lone loss to Minnesota two weeks ago didn’t change the ceiling of its season at all. It just simply altered the floor. If a 10-0 Penn State team fell to Ohio State, it’d likely still make the Rose Bowl. But, because it already has one loss, a bowl outside of the New Year’s Six would be more likely with a loss to Ohio State.
Next week’s CFP rankings should tell us a whole lot more about Penn State’s postseason picture.
What the CFP committee said
There was some question as to why No. 8 Penn State was ranked ahead of No. 10 Minnesota, despite the Golden Gophers’ head-to-head win.
Rob Mullens, the Chair of the CFP Selection Committee, explained the group’s reasoning to ESPN.
“Well, we certainly had a lot of discussions and, if you’re in the room, there’s a lot of things that get considered,” Mullens told ESPN during its weekly selection show. “Head-to-head is one piece. They also had a common opponent in Iowa, who Penn State beat, and then you look at Penn State’s resume. Their win against Michigan is impressive, and they have the best nonconference win, beating a 7-3 Pittsburgh team.”
When Mullens had a conference call with reporters after his ESPN interview, he reiterated the fact Penn State has the stronger resume to this point. “The committee’s impressed with Penn State,” he added.
When asked how big the gap between Nos. 4 and 8 is, Mullens said there was really no measurement to answer that. But he did offer a mild take.
“What I can tell you is 4 through 8, there’s plenty of discussion and a lot of debate about each of those teams, their strengths and weaknesses and how they should be ranked,” he said.
New Year’s Six chances
Two weeks ago, everyone had Penn State pegged for the Rose Bowl. One week ago, no one did. Now? There are a few; a lot can change late in the season. Here’s the national media’s bowl projections right now:
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura: vs. Texas A&M, Outback Bowl (1 p.m. Jan. 1)
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach: vs. No. 11 Florida, Citrus Bowl (1 p.m. Jan. 1)
USA Today’s Erick Smith: vs. No. 7 Utah, Rose Bowl (5 p.m. Jan. 1)
The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel: vs. No. 7 Utah, Rose Bowl (5 p.m. Jan. 1)
CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm: vs. Texas A&M, Outback Bowl (1 p.m. Jan. 1)
Stadium’s Brett McMurphy: vs. No. 23 USC, Holiday Bowl (8 p.m. Dec. 27)
The Sporting News’ Bill Bender: vs. Texas A&M, TaxSlayer Bowl (7 p.m. Jan. 2)
SB Nation’s Jason Kirk: vs. No. 6 Oregon, Rose Bowl (5 p.m. Jan. 1)
247 Sports’ Brad Crawford: vs. Texas A&M, Outback Bowl (1 p.m. Jan. 1)
(Note: All projections were made before the playoff rankings were released, and all rankings reflect the committee’s new top 25.)
Rooting interest
At its base level, Penn State wants to see teams ahead of it fall — and teams it already beat come out on top. That gives the Nittany Lions an opportunity to move up while, at the same time, strengthening its playoff resume.
Here are a few games to watch this weekend (besides Penn State-Ohio State), who to root for, and why:
No. 10 Minnesota at Northwestern, noon, Saturday, ABC: Root for the Golden Gophers. If Penn State wants to guarantee itself a playoff spot if it makes the Big Ten title game, then the best way is to meet — and beat — a one-loss Minnesota team in the conference championship. Minnesota is a two-touchdown favorite here, so this should be an easy win. But the Nittany Lions would also benefit from a Minnesota blowout. Because PJ Fleck’s crew already beat Penn State, it helps the Nittany Lions every time Minnesota does well. (Well, unless Penn State loses to Ohio State — but we’ll get to that next week.) A win here would boost PSU’s strength of schedule.
Arizona State at No. 6 Oregon, 7:30 p.m., Saturday, ABC: Root for the Sun Devils. The Ducks are currently ranked ahead of the Nittany Lions, but odds are James Franklin’s squad should leap-frog them with a win over Ohio State. Still, a little insurance wouldn’t be a bad thing. And with No. 5 Alabama set to face FCS Western Carolina and No. 7 Utah a 23-point favorite over Arizona, this is the matchup that Penn State has the best shot at things going its way. That being said, Oregon is still a two-TD favorite here. But even a close battle would help out the Nittany Lions.
Pitt at Virginia Tech, 3:30 p.m., Saturday, ESPN2: Root for the Panthers. OK, Penn State fans, this one might be painful. But it’d be in the Nittany Lions’ best interest if the Panthers won. Pitt is on the cusp of making the top 25 — it received the 31st-most votes in the most-recent AP Poll — and, if PSU can count the win over Pitt as a quality win, that’d be at least a little help whether James Franklin’s crew wins or loses Saturday. A win over the Hokies might just push Pitt into the top 25, but the Panthers are 4-point underdogs. This should be a close one.
Texas A&M at No. 4 Georgia, 3:30 p.m., Saturday, CBS: Root for the Aggies. The Bulldogs are surprisingly high at No. 4 right now, so a loss would go a long way in helping the Nittany Lions earn a playoff berth, if things work out against Ohio State. Georgia will likely take on LSU in the SEC championship, and it might be dangerous if a one-loss Georgia team somehow upsets the Tigers in that game. In that case, the SEC could be a threat to get two teams in. Unlikely? Yes. But, if we’re trying to look ahead, a Georgia loss on Saturday helps make the playoff road a little less cluttered for the Nittany Lions.
CFP Rankings
Here’s a full list of the College Football Playoff rankings, the third edition of which were released Tuesday night:
1. LSU (10-0)
2. Ohio State (10-0)
3. Clemson (11-0)
4. Georgia (9-1)
5. Alabama (9-1)
6. Oregon (9-1)
7. Utah (9-1)
8. Penn State (9-1)
9. Oklahoma (9-1)
10. Minnesota (9-1)
11. Florida (9-2)
12. Wisconsin (8-2)
13. Michigan (8-2)
14. Baylor (9-1)
15. Auburn (7-3)
16. Notre Dame (8-2)
17. Iowa (7-3)
18. Memphis (9-1)
19. Cincinnati (9-1)
20. Boise State (9-1)
21. Oklahoma State (7-3)
22. Iowa State (6-4)
23. USC (7-4)
24. Appalachian State (9-1)
25. SMU (9-1)
This story was originally published November 19, 2019 at 7:19 PM.
