How can Penn State upset Ohio State football? Here are Saturday’s 2 key matchups
For the first time all season, No. 8 Penn State is an underdog Saturday — and it’s a big one.
The No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes are 18.5-point favorites in a Big Ten matchup loaded with national implications. So, for Penn State to win, it’s going to have to win the most important matchups.
And what are those? Here’s what we believe the two key matchups are to Saturday’s game (noon, FOX) and the two battles Penn State will have to win to clinch the upset:
Josh Moyer: Ohio State DE Chase Young vs. Penn State OL
Ohio State defensive end Chase Young is in a league of his own — and there isn’t a more dominant defensive player in all of college football.
On Wednesday, ESPN analyst Todd McShay ranked him No. 1 overall on his 2020 NFL Draft Big Board, one spot ahead of LSU quarterback Joe Burrow. (Fellow ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr. did the same two weeks ago.) Pro Football Focus gave Young an overall grade of 97.0 so far this season, making him the country’s highest-rated edge defender, by far. (Duke’s Chris Rumph II was the runner-up with a 91.9). According to PFF, Young’s pass-rush win percentage is also at a national-best 32.3%.
Penn State hasn’t seen a defensive player like this all season. Heck, James Franklin hasn’t seen many players like this in his career. Young is unique — and the Nittany Lions’ offensive linemen aren’t pretending otherwise.
When asked if it would be fair to call Young the best defensive end he’s seen on film, during his three-year career, backup Des Holmes said Wednesday afternoon, “It is fair to say that.”
“He’s a great player,” Holmes added. “He’s got a great get-off, he’s strong, he’s very versatile. He’s got good inside moves; he can really get around you on the bend. He’s just a great player.”
Yes, there are other matchups here that are important. The Nittany Lions have struggled defending the pass. And, yes, Ohio State’s high-powered offense should give PSU plenty of fits.
But even James Franklin acknowledged his team won’t shut out this program. Ohio State is going to score. The big question is whether Penn State’s offense can keep up. And if QB Sean Clifford is going to have success through the air, he’ll need time to pass. If the running game takes off, it can’t just run away from Young every play.
That’s what makes this matchup so important. Young is talented enough to take over a game, something we can’t often say about defensive ends. Former Georgia linebacker David Pollack, an ESPN analyst, went so far as to say Penn State would’ve had a chance at the upset — only if Young was still suspended. (He missed the previous two games due to an NCAA violation but is back for the Penn State game. He won’t see a reduction in snaps Saturday; in fact, Lettermen Row’s Austin Ward believes he’ll see more snaps Saturday than he has all season.)
Young is to Ohio State’s defensive line what Saquon Barkley was to Penn State’s running back room. He’s a gamebreaker. In eight games, Young boasts 13.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss. According to PFF, he also has 36 total pressures on 156 pass-rush snaps. He’s been the root cause of some interceptions, he’s forced five fumbles — and he’ll be lined up against redshirt freshman LT Rasheed Walker and/or redshirt junior RT Will Fries.
Penn State will have to alter its game plan to account for Young.
“They might have to slide to him,” Ohio State defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley told reporters. “They might have to keep the tight end on him. They might now have to keep a back in on him and have to find a way so he’s not one-on-one. They might have to get rid of the ball quicker. They might not be able to sit in the pocket and throw those deep developing routes that give you problems.”
If Penn State wants to win, it has to neutralize Young better than anyone else has. And that’ll be just as difficult as upsetting the Buckeyes.
Jon Sauber: Ohio State QB Justin Fields vs. Penn State defense
Ohio State sophomore quarterback Justin Fields has been as dominant as any quarterback in the nation as a passer this season. Fields has completed 159-of-230 passes for 2,164 yards, 31 touchdowns and only one interception.
He’s easily the best quarterback in the Big Ten right now as a passer, and it’s not particularly close. He can make every throw on the field thanks to his arm strength and pinpoint accuracy, and that is more than enough to stress the nation’s best defenses.
The sophomore quarterback further separates himself from the pack with his ability to make plays in the run game. Fields is a high-level athlete that has rushed 84 times this season for 377 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Penn State will need to limit Fields in both aspects if it wants to pull off an upset Saturday afternoon in Columbus.
Fields’ passing ability should be Penn State’s first priority, mainly because the defense has had issues stopping quarterbacks of late. The Nittany Lions have given up 710 yards and four touchdowns on 49-of-61 passing while not forcing an interception in the team’s last two games against Indiana and Minnesota.
Fields can’t be allowed to play as well as Indiana’s Peyton Ramsey and Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan did against the Penn State defense if the Nittany Lions want any chance to win. If Fields plays that well, the Buckeyes will win Saturday afternoon in a landslide.
Even if Penn State is able to slow down the Buckeye quarterback through the air, the threat of his legs is still enough to push Ohio State to a victory. The Penn State defense has been much better against the run, but will need to keep up that level of play. It’s allowed 31 rushing yards on 16 carries to Morgan and Ramsey in the last two weeks, but neither is as great of a rushing threat as Fields. Penn State’s defensive ends will have to be careful not to get too far upfield on pass rushes, and its linebackers will need to keep track of Fields when interior rushing lanes open up, to be sure he can’t make plays with his legs.
If the rush defense can limit Fields’ impact with his legs, and the pass defense can take a step forward compared to its play in the last two weeks, Penn State will have a chance this weekend.
This story was originally published November 20, 2019 at 6:17 PM.
