The latest College Football Playoff Rankings are in: Here’s how Penn State can make the Rose Bowl
Penn State may be out of the hunt for a spot in the College Football Playoff but, based on the newest rankings, a postseason destination like the Rose Bowl very much remains in play.
The Nittany Lions (9-2) dropped two spots to No. 10 in the latest CFP rankings, which were released Tuesday night. But, more importantly, Penn State is still ahead of all but one Big Ten team not named Ohio State — and it has the potential next week to leap-frog No. 8 Minnesota, who’s an underdog this weekend.
So what needs to happen for a Rose Bowl berth? Well, for fans unfamiliar with how this works, Penn State needs to be the Big Ten’s top-ranked non-playoff team to earn an invitation into “The Granddaddy of Them All.” For that to happen, as far as this weekend goes, the Nittany Lions require three things: 1. Penn State stomps Rutgers, 2. Ohio State beats Michigan, 3. Wisconsin gets past Minnesota. If that all happens, that means the Nittany Lions should jump over Minnesota next week and stay ahead of Michigan.
That leaves only the pesky Badgers in Penn State’s way. And, as long as Wisconsin loses to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, Penn State will almost certainly earn the Rose Bowl berth.
Again, that’s a lot of what-ifs. Penn State no longer controls its own destiny. But the good news for the Nittany Lions is the odds for each of those four scenarios are in their favor: Penn State is a 40-point favorite over Rutgers, Ohio State is an 8.5-point favorite over Michigan, and Wisconsin is a 2.5-point favorite over Minnesota. The Buckeyes would also be double-digit favorites over Wisconsin.
Anything can happen. But, two weeks ago, few thought the Nittany Lions had a shot at the Rose Bowl with two losses. Now, that path is clear — even if it’s not guaranteed.
New Year’s Six chances
Three weeks ago, everyone had Penn State pegged for the Rose Bowl. Two weeks ago, no one did. One week ago, several picked “The Granddaddy of Them All.” Now? Here’s what it looks like:
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura: vs. Texas A&M, Outback Bowl (1 p.m. Jan. 1)
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach: vs. Tennessee, Outback Bowl (1 p.m. Jan. 1)
USA Today’s Erick Smith: vs. No. 14 Oregon, Rose Bowl (5 p.m. Jan. 1)
The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel: vs. No. 14 Oregon, Rose Bowl (5 p.m. Jan. 1)
CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm: vs. No. 14 Oregon, Rose Bowl (5 p.m. Jan. 1)
Stadium’s Brett McMurphy: vs. No. 14 Oregon, Rose Bowl (5 p.m. Jan. 1)
The Sporting News’ Bill Bender: vs. Texas A&M, Outback Bowl (1 p.m. Jan. 1)
SB Nation’s Jason Kirk: vs. No. 18 Memphis, Cotton Bowl (noon Dec. 28)
247 Sports’ Brad Crawford: vs. Texas A&M, Outback Bowl (1 p.m. Jan. 1)
(Note: All projections were made before the playoff rankings were released, and all rankings reflect the committee’s new top 25.)
Rooting interest
At its base level, Penn State wants to see teams ahead of it fall — and teams it already beat come out on top. That gives the Nittany Lions an opportunity to move up while, at the same time, strengthening its resume.
Here are a few games to watch this weekend (besides Penn State-Rutgers), who to root for, and why:
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 13 Michigan, noon, Saturday, FOX: Root for the Buckeyes. Penn State’s path to the Rose Bowl requires an Ohio State win here. Penn State wants the Buckeyes to earn a spot in the playoff because, if they don’t, that means the Buckeyes will take the spot in the Rose Bowl — which pushes PSU down the bowl pecking order while also raising Michigan’s profile. As long as the Wolverines lose, Penn State should remain ahead of U-M in next week’s CFP rankings. So this game is an important one for the Nittany Lions for a few reasons.
No. 12 Wisconsin at No. 8 Minnesota, 3:30 p.m., Saturday, ABC: Root for the Badgers. Don’t feel like watching Penn State wallop Rutgers on Saturday? Then tune into this game; it’s just as important to Penn State’s future as the Penn State game. Seriously. This game determines the winner of the Big Ten West. If Minnesota wins, and then loses to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, it’ll be 11-2 to Penn State’s 10-2 and it’ll have the head-to-head win. In other words, a Minnesota win here — and it’s likely in the Rose Bowl over Penn State. A Minnesota loss, and Penn State has a great shot at jumping over the Golden Gophers next week, given their strength of resume.
Florida State at No. 11 Florida, 7:30 p.m., Saturday, SECN: Root for the Seminoles. In case Minnesota does win, SB Nation’s Jason Kirk still believes that Penn State can earn the at-large berth in the Cotton Bowl. But, for that to happen, Utah needs to make the playoff AND Penn State needs to continue to be ranked over Florida. (The Nittany Lions are already ranked ahead of the Gators so, as long as Florida doesn’t obliterate Florida State, then PSU should be just fine.) Again, this game doesn’t really matter if the Wisconsin Badgers take care of business against Minnesota. So consider this a Plan B rooting interest.
CFP Rankings
Here’s a full list of the College Football Playoff rankings, the fourth edition of which were released Tuesday night:
1. Ohio State (11-0)
2. LSU (11-0)
3. Clemson (11-0)
4. Georgia (10-1)
5. Alabama (10-1)
6. Utah (10-1)
7. Oklahoma (10-1)
8. Minnesota (10-1)
9. Baylor (10-1)
10. Penn State (9-2)
11. Florida (9-2)
12. Wisconsin (9-2)
13. Michigan (9-2)
14. Oregon (9-2)
15. Auburn (8-3)
16. Notre Dame (9-2)
17. Iowa (8-3)
18. Memphis (10-1)
19. Cincinnati (10-1)
20. Boise State (10-1)
21. Oklahoma State (8-3)
22. USC (8-4)
23. Iowa State (7-4)
24. Virginia Tech (8-3)
25. Appalachian State (10-1)
This story was originally published November 26, 2019 at 7:22 PM.
