How will Penn State football fare this season? Here’s a breakdown of PSU’s 2020 schedule
When the Big Ten unveiled its latest set of team schedules on Sept. 19, it marked the third time the conference had to assemble a schedule for the 2020 season. This latest version features nine Big Ten games in nine weeks — a significant change from a traditional 12-week schedule with a bye week.
That means No. 10 Penn State has little to no room for error if it wants to take the next step as a program and compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Head coach James Franklin sees this fall as business as usual in that regard, though.
“I think that’s why college football’s so exciting and so great — if you want to make the playoffs … you pretty much need to be undefeated,” Franklin said Sept. 19 during an appearance on Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff. “We won the Big Ten Championship a few years back, didn’t make the playoffs. So, we understand. We learned that lesson very well. You better take it one game at a time.”
To give Penn State fans an idea of what to look out for every week, we broke down each of the Nittany Lions’ eight scheduled matchups. (The ninth game will be a cross-divisional game, determined by teams’ divisional standings.)
Week 1 at Indiana (Oct. 24)
Latest AP Poll ranking (Week 4): N/A
Name to know: WR Whop Philyor
Synopsis: Indiana is coming off an eight-win season — the program’s most wins in 26 years. Head coach Tom Allen will look to build some consistency off 2019’s success after posting just five wins each in his first two full seasons at the helm. Even with opt-outs throughout college football — and especially in the Big Ten — Indiana’s roster remains intact to this point. That’s good news for a Hoosier team that returns 17 starters, including nine on defense.
Indiana was No. 15 in the country last season in passing yards per game with 302.4. That’s in large part thanks to star senior wide receiver Whop Philyor, who caught 70 passes for 1,002 receiving yards and five touchdowns last year. Philyor was named to the Maxwell Award and Biletnikoff Award preseason watch lists and is poised for another All-Big Ten caliber season. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is coming off back-to-back season-ending injuries, but he showed much promise in six starts last season — especially by completing 68.8 percent of his passes. He joins Philyor on the Maxwell Award preseason watch list. If Penix Jr. can stay healthy, the Hoosiers offense has potential to be potent.
Facing such a stellar passing attack doesn’t bode well for a Penn State defense that ranked 100th out of 130 FBS teams in opponent passing yards per game, allowing 251.5 yards through the air per contest last season. The Nittany Lions also lost impact players in the defensive backfield in John Reid and Garrett Taylor. Senior safety Lamont Wade and senior cornerback Tariq Castro-Fields must step up to contain Philyor and the Hoosiers’ other receivers.
Indiana is just 1-22 all-time against Penn State, but the teams’ last two matchups have been decided by a combined 12 points. If the Nittany Lions get caught looking ahead to Ohio State in Week 2, there could be a chance for the Hoosiers to pull the upset. More than likely, though, it’s safe to predict Penn State will seal the victory.
Week 2 vs. Ohio State (Oct. 31)
Latest AP Poll ranking (Week 4): No. 6
Name to know: QB Justin Fields
Synopsis: Ohio State has finished in the top five of the AP Poll and won the Big Ten Championship each of the last three seasons. The Buckeyes have also made an appearance in the College Football Playoff three of the past six years. Coming off a 13-1 season in head coach Ryan Day’s first full season, Ohio State is on a short list of contenders to win the national championship.
The Buckeyes were No. 4 in the nation last season in total offense per game with 530.4 yards per contest. But running back J.K. Dobbins — a first-team All-American who led the team with 2,000-plus rushing yards — has departed for the NFL. The Ohio State defense, which ranked No. 1 last year in opponent yards per game, also takes a hit with the loss of All-American defensive end Chase Young. Lucky for OSU fans, Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback Justin Fields is back. Fields threw for 3,000-plus yards and 41 touchdowns last season, and he ran for 10 more scores. Ohio State should again be head and shoulders above the rest of the Big Ten if he can find a way to take another step as a junior.
A goal for Penn State is to get over the hump as a program by vaulting its way into national championship contention — beating Ohio State for the first time since 2016 would be a huge step in that direction. But it’s never an easy task when a team has to play its toughest opponent in Week 2. And it will be even more challenging with a new offensive coordinator in Kirk Ciarrocca, who no doubt will need time to get the Nittany Lions offense clicking.
No team in the past four years has played Ohio State closer than Penn State has. It’s hard to envision the Nittany Lions pulling this one off, though — especially in an empty Beaver Stadium.
Week 3 vs. Maryland (Nov. 7)
Latest AP Poll ranking (Week 4): N/A
Name to know: DB Nick Cross
Synopsis: Maryland lost seven consecutive games last season to finish 3-9 in head coach Mike Locksley’s first season back. The program has had three different head coaches in four years — a span in which it has combined for 18 total wins and never finished better than fifth in the Big Ten East. Rebuilding takes time, and though Locksley will have more of the players he needs this year, it’s likely that the Terrapins will be stuck in the basement of the Big Ten yet again.
Maryland ranked 116th out of 130 FBS teams in opponent passing yards last year, allowing 271.3 per game. Of course, it didn’t help that the Terrapins also were next to last in the Big Ten with just 1.8 sacks per game. If Maryland can get more pressure on the quarterback, it’s secondary can have a chance to show what it’s capable of. A player who particularly has an opportunity to make a greater impact is sophomore safety Nick Cross. Cross tied for the team lead last season in interceptions with two and pass breakups with five, while also registering 45 tackles. With redshirt senior safety Antwaine Richardson — who returns from a torn ACL suffered last preseason — and junior college transfer cornerback Jakorian Bennett joining Cross in the defensive backfield, the unit should be improved.
One of the tallest tasks Penn State had during this extended offseason was to figure out who will step up in its wide receivers corps. Only two of the Nittany Lions top five leaders in receiving yards from last year return — with K.J. Hamler departed for the NFL, Nick Bowers graduated and Justin Shorter lost to transfer. Still, the unit should have enough firepower to pick apart a Maryland secondary that is talented but still developing.
Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, Maryland has only beaten Penn State once. The last three matchups haven’t been close, with the Nittany Lions out-scoring the Terrapins 163-6. Look for this year’s contest to be much of the same.
Week 4 vs. Nebraska (Nov. 14)
Latest AP Poll ranking (Week 4): N/A
Name to know: RB Dedrick Mills
Synopsis: Nebraska hasn’t earned a bowl bid since 2016, and the Cornhuskers are coming off of an underachieving 5-7 campaign in head coach Scott Frost’s second year. The program has also posted three consecutive 3-6 Big Ten records. If Frost’s group can remain healthy, it should be better this season. Nebraska will be tested early, though, with three of its first four opponents ranked in the top 25.
The Cornhuskers ranked No. 29 in the country last season in rushing yards per game with 204.5 yards on the ground per contest. Senior running back Dedrick Mills — an honorable mention All-Big Ten selection — led the way in this department, rushing for 745 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2019. Mills was named to the Doak Walker Award preseason watch list and should be set to take on an even bigger role this fall in his second year at Nebraska after transferring from junior college. He’ll play alongside junior quarterback Adrian Martinez, who had a stellar freshman year but took a step back last season while hampered with injuries. Martinez has ran for over 600 yards in each of his two seasons as a Cornhusker and was the team’s second-leading rusher last year.
Though it won’t be easy to contain Mills, Penn State should have one of the best run defenses in the nation yet again this fall. The Nittany Lions were tied for an FBS-best 2.6 yards per rush allowed last season. Penn State lost four of its five 2019 leaders in tackles for a loss, but it has plenty of emerging talent to fill the holes.
The last time these two teams faced off was 2017, when the Nittany Lions won in Beaver Stadium. Having no real home-field advantage despite playing in Memorial Stadium won’t help the Cornhuskers’ case. Penn State should pick up a win in this one.
Week 5 vs. Iowa (Nov. 21)
Latest AP Poll ranking (Week 4): N/A
Name to know: WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette
Synopsis: Iowa loses last year’s starting quarterback and a first-round pick at left tackle, but the offense should still be improved in 2020. Former quarterback Nate Stanley never excelled at the position for the Hawkeyes and his inconsistencies often cost the team games. Tristan Wirfs was an athletic freak at tackle and one of the best in the country, but Iowa will replace him with Coy Cronk, a graduate transfer from Indiana who brings leadership and stability to the offensive line.
Redshirt sophomore Spencer Petras will likely take over at quarterback for Stanley and he possesses a talent that could help wide receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette turn into one of the best receivers in the conference. Petras has one of the best arms in the conference and can hit the senior wide receiver down the field in a way that Stanley wasn’t capable of doing. That will be important for the Hawkeyes, because Smith-Marsette is the team’s most talented player in the open field and offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz should go to great lengths to get the ball in his hands.
Stopping Smith-Marsette will be paramount to Penn State’s success in stopping the Iowa offense. By this point in the season the Nittany Lions will know what they have in their secondary — and specifically in senior Tariq Castro-Fields in what could be his final year on campus. He’ll be key to slowing down the Hawkeye wide receiver and preventing him from making big plays against Penn State.
The lack of a home environment could impact the Nittany Lions, but they should still be able to earn the victory against Iowa as they begin the second half of their season.
Week 6 at Michigan (Nov. 28)
Latest AP Poll ranking (Week 4): No. 23
Name to know: QB Joe Milton
Synopsis: Penn State’s most difficult road game comes late in the season when the Nittany Lions travel to Ann Arbor. Matchups with the Wolverines on the road have presented Franklin issues in the past, but an empty Big House should make his team’s life easier. But that doesn’t mean it will be easy. Michigan will have broken in junior quarterback Joe Milton with five conference games at this point and he should be hitting his stride. He’s the assumed starter after Dylan McCaffrey opted out of the season and entered the transfer portal.
Milton is a strong-armed passer with average to above-average mobility. His skill set fits the offense his offensive coordinator — Josh Gattis — brought with him when he took the position. Gattis spent a year at Alabama as the wide receivers coach, but was previously in the same position at Penn State under Franklin and then-offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead. It was Moorhead’s offense that the Michigan offensive coordinator has taken with him and built upon.
The system can feast on a defense that allows big plays downfield and now it has a quarterback with the arm strength to take advantage of the playmakers it has on the outside. The biggest question mark for Michigan will be if it has star wide receiver Nico Collins — who has opted out of the season but could reverse course like other high-level players in the conference. Even without Collins, Michigan has plenty of talent on the outside and Milton has the ability to get them the ball in space.
The Nittany Lions will need to slow down the offense they used to run in order to break their streak of bad luck in Ann Arbor this fall.
Week 7 at Rutgers (Dec. 5)
Latest AP Poll ranking (Week 4): N/A
Name to know: WR Bo Melton
Synopsis: The Scarlet Knights are usually a doormat for the majority of the Big Ten East and that shouldn’t change this year — even if they’re set to improve under head coach Greg Schiano. Rutgers doesn’t have the talent across the board to compete with most Power-5 teams and especially not with teams at the top of the conference.
Wide receiver Bo Melton is one of the most talented players on the roster and will likely lead the team in receiving this season. He and Aron Cruickshank are skilled with the ball in their hands — and new offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson should try to generate easy touches for them — but the team doesn’t have a quarterback to lead the offense. Artur Sitkowski, Johnny Langan and Noah Vedral will be vying to start for the Scarlet Knights, but none of the three present the talent to compete at a high level.
The likely outcome here is another Nittany Lion blowout on their way to their season finale in the following week. Penn State’s defensive line should live in the Rutgers backfield and bring pressure against whoever is starting at quarterback for the Scarlet Knights at the time. Their front seven — even without Micah Parsons — will overmatch the offensive line and bring pressure whenever it wants in this one. Gleeson should be able to scheme his way around the disadvantage at times, but it’s still a matchup Penn State will be able to exploit.
The Penn State offense should be able to pound through a Rutgers defense that finished last season ranked No. 86 in Bill Connelly’s SP+ — a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency — and hasn’t done much to improve on that side of the ball from a talent standpoint. It’s rare to chalk a game up as a win before the season has begun, especially when it’s game seven out of eight, but this one is over already.
Week 8 vs. Michigan State (Dec. 12)
Latest AP Poll ranking (Week 4): N/A
Name to know: New head coach Mel Tucker
Synopsis: Penn State’s season finale comes against a team that has given the Nittany Lions plenty of headaches in recent years. The Spartans have defeated Penn State in two of their past three meetings with the victories doing extensive damage to the end result of the Nittany Lions’ season.
In 2017, Michigan State won a sloppy, thunderstorm-delay riddled game that kept Penn State out of the College Football Playoff discussion. In 2018, the Spartans derailed the Nittany Lions’ season and prevented them from making a New Years’ Six Bowl. This year’s Michigan State team will be led by a new head coach for the first time since 2006 after Mark Dantonio retired in February.
The program is now led by Mel Tucker, who spent last season at Colorado as the team’s head coach after leading the Georgia defense for three seasons. The program’s identity should be similar to what it was under Dantonio. Tucker is a defensive-minded coach who moved through the ranks by holding down potent offenses as a coordinator. The Spartans are unlikely to run the same quarters defense that the former head coach did and could even regress on that side of the ball after Tucker’s defense at Colorado ranked No. 104 in SP+.
That should be good news for Penn State after former offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne struggled to get his playmakers the ball at times against the Michigan State defense. With a switch in scheme for the Spartans — and a new play-caller in Kirk Ciarrocca — the Nittany Lions are in a much better position to put up some points on the Spartans. They lost to Penn State in Dantonio’s last year, and that trend could continue because of the staff changes on both sidelines following the 2019 season.
