Can Penn State continue its turnaround with a win over Michigan State? Here’s 2 key matchups
Coming off of back-to-back wins over Michigan and Rutgers — its first two wins of the season — Penn State is expected to keep its winning streak alive when it takes on Michigan State at home on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are a 14.5-point favorite over the Spartans. But if PSU wants to win on the field and not on paper, it’ll need to dominate its matchups.
Here are two key matchups in Saturday’s game (3:30 p.m., ESPN) that we think will directly determine the outcome:
PARTH UPADHYAYA: PSU O-LINE VS. MSU D-LINE
During Penn State’s 0-5 start, its offensive line struggled mightily. The unit gave up 20 sacks and the Nittany Lions ran for fewer than 100 yards in three games during that stretch.
But in Penn State’s last two wins, the offensive line has shown significant improvement — surrendering only three sacks combined. The Nittany Lions also ran for at least 248 yards in both contests.
Last week, Penn State’s offensive line dominated Rutgers’ defensive line. As a result, the Nittany Lions controlled the game from the opening kickoff — running a total of 57 times (and passing only 22 times) to have a time of possession of 36:47, compared to just 23:13 for the Scarlet Knights. Redshirt junior quarterback Sean Clifford also wasn’t heavily pressured throughout the contest and often had ample time to throw.
Michigan State’s defensive line hasn’t looked spectacular throughout the team’s six games this season — the Spartans are tied for 73rd in the country with an average of just two sacks a game. But the unit has turned a corner in the last two weeks.
Even in its 40-point loss to Ohio State last week, Michigan State sacked Buckeyes Heisman Trophy-candidate quarterback Justin Fields three times. And the week before that — in its upset victory over Northwestern — the Spartans sacked Wildcats quarterback Peyton Ramsey four times. Michigan State held Northwestern to just 63 yards on the ground in that matchup, too.
On Tuesday, head coach James Franklin said the Spartans’ offensive and defensive lines were “massive” and “big, strong and physical.” It’s safe to say that Saturday should provide at least somewhat of a test for the Nittany Lions in the trenches.
Penn State has found its groove and identity offensively in its last two games. Relying on their running game, the Nittany Lions plan of attack seems to be to control the time of possession and wear opposing defenses down. To do that effectively, though, the team will need its offensive line to build off the momentum of its last two performances.
If the Nittany Lions can move around the Spartans’ defensive linemen — just as they did with the Scarlet Knights last week — they should be able to pick up their third win of the season.
JON SAUBER: PSU QB SEAN CLIFFORD VS. MSU CB SHAKUR BROWN
Penn State’s quarterbacks have struggled with turnovers this season and Clifford has especially struggled with throwing interceptions. The redshirt junior has been picked off nine times in seven games this season — one of which came against Nebraska when he was pulled from the game in the second quarter. He’s struggled with accuracy issues and decision-making at times and that’s resulted in too many giveaways.
Brown has been one of the best defenders in the country at turning teams over. He has five interceptions in only six games — tied for first in the country in the category. Four of his five picks have come in the team’s last three games and two came against Northwestern, helping the Spartans pull off the upset against the Big Ten West-leading Wildcats. He’s caused issues for quarterbacks that aren’t prone to turnovers, making the matchup far less than ideal for Clifford and the Nittany Lions.
Usually, teams would avoid throwing the ball at a cornerback who has been as good of a ball hawk as Brown has, but that likely won’t be the case Saturday. Clifford has chosen junior wide receiver Jahan Dotson and freshman wideout Parker Washington as his two favorite options this season. He generally targets both of them far more than the rest of the Nittany Lion offense. Assuming Brown — Michigan State’s best cornerback this season — covers one of the two, that could eliminate one of Clifford’s two favorite options.
It’s more likely that the redshirt junior takes his chances throwing the ball in Brown’s direction. When he does, he will need to be sure he isn’t throwing the ball within arm’s reach of the corner. If Clifford can do that, he should be able to continue throwing to Dotson and Washington without facing serious repercussions. However, there isn’t a large sample size of Clifford consistently avoiding trouble with his passes. Given how his season has gone, it’s more likely that he throws one or two errant passes that are too close to Brown. If that happens, it’s easy to see the Michigan State cornerback earning an extra possession for the Spartan offense.
