How do Penn State prospects stack up in the NFL draft? Here’s what 2 experts said
Despite a far from ideal 2020 season in which Penn State finished with a losing record for the first time in 16 years, the Nittany Lions’ roster was still littered with NFL talent.
Even aside from star linebacker Micah Parsons — who opted out of the season in August — there are a few Penn State football alums who could potentially hear their names called in the first two days of the 2021 NFL Draft, which will take place from April 29 to May 1 in Cleveland.
Seven Nittany Lions have declared for the draft so far: Parsons, redshirt sophomore defensive end Jayson Oweh, junior tight end Pat Freiermuth, redshirt senior defensive end Shaka Toney, senior safety Lamont Wade, redshirt senior offensive lineman Michal Menet and redshirt senior offensive lineman Will Fries.
The Centre Daily Times spoke with two draft analysts — Steve Muench of ESPN and Dan Shonka of Ourlads — about the draft stock of a few of those Penn State prospects.
Centre Daily Times: I’ve seen Micah Parsons as high as No. 3 on some NFL mock drafts. How high do you think he will be selected?
Steve Muench: I think, historically — or at least in recent history — you look at those guys, they’re gonna go pick (No.) 5 to pick (No.) 15. I think (No.) 3 might be a little bit early, but it’s not crazy. … If he’s not off the board by pick (No.) 16, I would be surprised. I think Philadelphia at (No.) 6 is a popular spot right now. And that seems about the right area. We’ll see what happens going forward with free agency and all that stuff. But, yeah, he’s gonna be right in that range — a mid- to early-first round guy.
Dan Shonka: I don’t know if he’ll get out of the top 10, but everybody’s different in the way they look at these guys who had opted out. We’ll be doing our first mock draft here probably this week, but we’ve got him in the top 10. I know there’s teams that would love to get him a little bit later, like Cleveland (who has the No. 26 pick) ... but they’ll never see him. ... You know, he’s had one great year. And that’s always a concern, because you’d like to see guys play three years at least. And then, if they’re a four-year player, that’s even better. But he’s got the athletic ability; he’s got sideline-to-sideline range. He can cover backs coming out of the backfield; you can put him in the slot; he can run with the tight end. And now, the base defense in the NFL is basically a 4-2-5. So, he’d fit really good, and he’d never have to come off the field. But right now, I’m just gonna say we’re gonna have him in the top 10.
CDT: What kind of immediate impact do you expect Parsons to have on an NFL franchise?
S.M.: He’s a Day 1 starter. He’s someone you’re gonna bring in and you’re gonna play right away. So, he’s gonna have a significant impact. When you look at his range — he’s a great tackler, his ability to cover, to make an impact as a pass rusher — I think that he makes an immediate impact wherever he ends up, and I think that’s why he’s the top linebacker on our board.
D.S.: Well, if you’re gonna take a guy in the first round, you think he’s gonna start. And he’s obviously projected to be a starter. The book is small on him, but the one year that he played (great), he looked like a premier linebacker that, down the road, could be an annual Pro Bowl guy. But, like I said, he’s played one (great) year and I guess that (Pro Bowl projection) might be stretching it a little bit until you see him play more. But it’s gonna take him a while. … Especially now, if we don’t have preseason again, he’s basically going to be without football for two years almost, or a year and a half. So, he’s gonna have to get the rust knocked off. … But I think he will end up being a really good player, and that’s just a projection on what he did in one year.
CDT: I’ve seen a few mock drafts that have Jayson Oweh as a first-rounder. With him not having the most productive collegiate career, do you think it’s wise to take him that early based on potential?
S.M.: (Here’s) what scares me about taking him in the first round — he’s not polished enough. When I’m taking a guy in the first round, I want guys that are gonna be a little bit safer than that. You don’t want to miss on your first-round picks. And I do think the ceiling is really high for this kid. I think he’s gonna go on Day 2 of the draft, but I think he’s gotta get better in terms of his polish, especially as a pass rusher. There are times where he puts it together, and it looks awesome. I think he’s got a really high ceiling, especially as a pass rusher — he looks like a bull in a china shop at times, with just how powerful he can be. But he’s got to prove his ability to counter.
You know, the kid (Shaka) Toney’s not as good as he is in terms of natural ability, but he’s a better hand-flatter. He does a little bit better job with some of his pass-rush moves. And that’s what you were kinda hoping to see with Oweh coming back next year. I was surprised (that Oweh declared for the draft) — I think a lot of people were surprised. Evaluators, they want everything to check the boxes. So, when you see that he didn’t have a sack last year, is that the end of the world? No. I think if you look at the tape, he’s a disruptive pass rusher. It’s not the end-all be-all, but it’s also a little bit of a red flag. … So, there’s enough question marks that really would make me hesitant to take him in the first round.
D.S.: You have to remember most of these guys (that do) the mock draft stuff, none of those guys have any experience in pro football. And so, when they project guys, what are they basing their projection on? They have nothing to compare it to in regards to being on a team and knowing what coaches think and things like that. (With) Jayson, you look at productivity, which is part of it. Now, some will draft on potential. But potential can get you beat. I wouldn’t take him in the first round. I mean, he’s got the size that you’d love to have at defensive end at 6-5 — he’s long. He’s about 255; maybe he’s up to 260 now. But hey, he’s a redshirt sophomore. And he flashes different things that he can do and things like that. But a guy that goes in the first round better be a world beater — you better be on every play. ... Now, I’d take him the second round, because pass rushers are at such a premium. You take guys like that and hope that they (develop). Especially if I had two second-round picks, I guarantee I’d take him. He’s a flash guy. I’ll tell you, he can go either way — he can burn you about as easy as he can help your team.
You need somebody, when you’re drafting that high, to come in there and be an impact player for you and be able to start. To me, in the first three rounds, you should draft a starter. And some team may put him in there, and he may not do anything. So, you have to go back and look — Why wasn’t he productive? Why didn’t he do this? Why didn’t he do that? … He would scare me.
CDT: Do you think Oweh should have returned to Penn State for another season, given that he’s still an unfinished product?
S.M.: From a football standpoint, I think I would have said to him — if it’s just purely football — it would’ve been good for him to have gone back. He’s raw. I think he could make strides and really solidify himself. I think he’s a first-round talent — I don’t know if he’s a first-round football player. So, what I’m saying there is that I think if he had gone back, really worked on some of the weaknesses of his game, got a little bit bigger, a little bit stronger … he puts himself in a better position by going back.
D.S.: Yes, absolutely. He should have gone back with the mindset that, ‘Hey, I’m gonna tear the heads off of anybody, sprint to every ball and I’m gonna be around. I want everybody to see No. 28 around the pile all the time. If I don’t make the tackle, or if I don’t make the pressure, then I’m gonna be there close by.’ That’s just my mindset that I’ve gotta see a guy that really wants it. And then you worry about the competitiveness. I mean, how come this guy didn’t (excel more last season)? Why didn’t he do it? Is he competitive? Is he taking plays off? Isn’t he what we thought he was gonna be? He’s a good athlete and all that stuff, but why didn’t he crank it up? So, there’s a lot of question marks, but some teams will be (interested in drafting him early).
I guarantee you I’ve seen teams where an outside linebackers coach or defensive end coach (is like), ‘Well, I can make him do this. And you give me the raw tools, long arms and his length and all that, and we can (make it work).’ No, you can’t. Because, to me, a pass rusher’s got to have heart, just like a rebounder (in basketball). You go in there and you go in for the rebound, you’re blocking people out, bodying up. It’s the same way for a pass rusher. You’re going in there with the eye of the tiger — you’re going in there to make that sack. And I don’t know if Jayson’s got that.
CDT: Do you think Pat Freiermuth coming back to Penn State for an additional year last season and injuring his shoulder hurt his draft stock?
S.M.: This is where I hesitate, right. The first tight end off the board last year was Cole Kmet (from Notre Dame). So, do I think that I would take Pat Freiermuth over Cole Kmet? Yep, I do. But (Kmet) was also taken with the 43rd pick overall. So, do I think Pat Freiermuth would’ve been a first-round pick last year, is I guess what we’re getting into. And I don’t know if he is — to me, and I really said this before this year, I thought he was an early second-round pick. I really like him. I just don’t know how much of a big-play threat he is. I don’t know how well he’s gonna run. When I watch him on tape, I see a really good receiver; I see a really good guy who’s gonna be tough after the catch. He’s a good blocker. He’s versatile — he can move around the formation. There’s a lot of things to like about him. The one question I’ve had about him is that top-end speed. So, if he comes out and runs super well, then I think he’s going to be OK either way. If he comes out and runs in 4.6s, low 4.7s, he’s going to be good. Barring that the shoulder is an absolute mess, I think it won’t hurt him at all. So, to me, the biggest question with him was always his speed. I think he was always going to be a second-round pick. I don’t think he’s gonna be a first-round pick. So, no, I don’t think it really is going to hurt him as long as the shoulder checks out medically.
D.S.: No. ... I mean, to me, he’d be a lock second-round guy — later in the second round, probably mid- to late. But it depends how he runs. He got a shoulder injured, (but) as long as it passes the NFL physical, that’s no problem. Because, it happens; everybody kind of gets that. But the big thing is: What can Pat run? I mean sometimes, he looks like a plodder out there. He doesn’t pull away from people and get separation. I think that would be more of a concern than him coming back. Coming back and only playing four games and that injury, it didn’t hurt him. The only thing that’s gonna hurt him is when they put a stopwatch on him. Or if he can’t run because of that shoulder. … That would be more of a concern, because on film, there’s times where he doesn’t look very fast. He just kind of looks like a guy out there, whereas a year ago, I think he’s more dominant and really showing some things. But no, coming back did not hurt him. The 40-yard dash is the only thing that’s going to hurt him. Other than that, he blocks good enough; he catches the ball good enough. I’d see him mid- to late-second round.
CDT: How good do you think Freiermuth can be right away at the next level?
S.M.: I think he can start right away. I think he can be a No. 1 tight end right away. If he’s healthy, I think he’d be No. 1 tight end right away. … He’s not going to be (Kansas City Chiefs tight end) Travis Kelce, so let’s put it in perspective. He’s not going to be (Las Vegas Raiders tight end) Darren Waller — he’s not going to be that guy. But I think he’s going to be — he has the potential to be — in the top half of the league, potentially, a top-16 tight end. Because if you look at that position, and we see it every year — it’s easy to see if you’re a fantasy football player — that position doesn’t have a ton of great talent in it. I do think he’s gonna be a No. 1 starting tight end as a rookie.
D.S.: Teams, they’re not drafting for those bigger tight ends as much early, unless they’re rare, like (Kyle) Pitts (from Florida). Pitts can run a 4.5, and he’s gonna line up as the fourth wide receiver out there sometimes, and Pat’s not like that. But Pat can line up in the slot, block down inside; he can run wheel routes, things like that. But I think that he’s gonna be a guy that is going to be in maybe more of a pro-style type of offense, rather than a wide-open passing attack type offense.
CDT: On paper, Shaka Toney, the other pass rusher opposite Oweh, out-performed Oweh last season. So, why is his draft stock not higher?
S.M.: Some of the concern about him is: Where does he fit? You know, he’s obviously a defensive end. I think he’s more of a 3-4 outside linebacker because of his frame. I think he weighs around 245 pounds — that’s what I have on him. ... If he comes in at 255 or 260, that’s going to help him out. But I think he’s a 245-pound guy. You see it at times on tape where he gets moved around a little bit. I don’t think he’s great against the run as a defensive end. So, I think that that’s one of the bigger concerns with him. And then the other thing you look at: I think he bends well and I think he’s quick and I think he closes, but he doesn’t have elite closing speed. And I don’t think he has elite initial quickness. And I want to see more power in his pass rush. … His hands are very active; I like his hands, but they’re not violent. He doesn’t throw guys as much as he slips guys. And so, it’s good that you can slip guys, but you want to see those other aspects of the pass rush added on to it.
So, I think he’s gonna be a Day 3 player. For us, that means that I’m not sure he’s gonna be a starter. I think he could be a No. 3, kind of a rotational guy as a 3-4 outside linebacker who’s a very good football player. But he’s not one of those guys you’re talking about every week as someone the offense has to worry about.
I think fourth round is optimistic; I think probably fifth round. It wouldn’t surprise me if he went in the fourth round. I’d be surprised if he works himself into the third round.
D.S.: Well, I think his stock is good. … He’s a guy that teams see as maybe that stand-up 3-4 guy. … A guy that’s a good-sized, outside-pressure player. At least he has done something (at the collegiate level), where you can see (what he can potentially do in the NFL). And again, all of this will depend on his arm length and stuff, too. I don’t know what his arms measured. We won’t know that maybe until he gets measured at the combine or at the school. But if his arms are (long) — say he’s got 34, 35 inch arms, that’s gonna help him a lot. Because teams like that, where (a guy) can block out ... and they’re not gonna get tied up with a short-armed guy. And if his measurables are such, that’s gonna help his stock, too. But he was productive. And you saw No. 18 quite a bit all over the field. … (He’s) a real smart guy. I think all that comes into play when you’re evaluating. And if Shaka Toney doesn’t go ahead of Jayson, then whoever drafted that way, they’re just taking the guy on potential, as opposed to production.
We’ve got him in the third round. … Pass rushers are still a premium. It’s one of the four top (positions). You know, you gotta have a quarterback, you gotta have your left tackle, you gotta have a cornerback and you gotta have your pass rushers. And there’s not a ton of pass rushers to draft. So he probably is going to end up in the third. If he had a tremendous workout, ... I could see him getting bumped up a little higher. I think right now, I’d say third round is probably where he’ll go.
