How can Penn State football upset the Wisconsin Badgers? Here are Saturday’s 2 key matchups
Penn State football is heading on the road Saturday to take on No. 12 Wisconsin in a difficult season opener in Madison. The No. 19 Nittany Lions will need to win two key matchups in order to pull off the upset.
Here are the two key matchups that will dictate if Penn State can knock off the Badgers in Camp Randall Stadium.
Jon Sauber: Penn State QB Sean Clifford vs. Wisconsin’s pass defense
Much has been made about Sean Clifford’s play in 2020 and it’s finally time to find out if he’s taken a step forward. It’s hard to pick any other matchup, with Clifford being the overwhelming focal point of the entire team this offseason.
The redshirt senior will be facing a difficult test in Week 1 and finding success could go a long way toward a bounce-back season. He’ll be taking on a group of defenders who performed relatively well last year and a unit that’s led by a former defensive back in Jim Leonhard.
Leonhard’s defenses have performed well in his four seasons in charge, and 2021 should be no different. The group is led in coverage by Faion Hicks, who said in July he plans to take on Penn State No. 1 wide receiver Jahan Dotson throughout the game.
“He’s a great player and makes a lot of big plays,” Hicks said at Big Ten Media Days. “Whenever you have a player like that on the opposite side of the ball, you look forward to those matchups. Wherever he’s at on the field, I’ll be following. ... I’ve been watching closely. I’ve been watching his tape.”
Hicks matching up with Dotson means Clifford’s primary option in the passing game will be seeing the opponent’s best corner snap after snap. That will put more pressure on the quarterback to find other receivers in order to alleviate the stress on Dotson, who could also reasonably get double teamed throughout the game.
In order to do that, Clifford has to be calm under pressure, whether it’s from the opposing pass rush or the thousands of Badger fans screaming in Camp Randall Stadium.
Offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich has a history of putting his quarterbacks in a position to succeed, so if that holds true Saturday, Clifford will have the opportunity to have a big game, even if the Badgers have talent in their secondary.
The Penn State senior’s biggest foe might not even be the secondary because of that. He’ll have to worry more about the other aspect of Wisconsin’s pass defense — its pass rush.
Leo Chenal and Jack Sanborn both excel at rushing the passer from the interior when they blitz, to go with EDGE NIck Herbig and DE Isauah Mullens, who can get to the quarterback in the team’s 3-4 defense. Clifford has struggled under pressure in the past, so if those Badgers can be disruptive, he’ll need to show he can remain calm.
The Wisconsin pass rush and secondary is a difficult season opener for any quarterback but this key matchup is much bigger than just Wisconsin, and everyone knows it. Clifford needs to go out and play well. There’s been plenty of noise this offseason about his play, so much so that he said in August that he’s no longer answering questions about 2020 and is moving on to 2021.
Kyle J. Andrews: Penn State offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich vs Wisconsin defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard
Mike Yurcich has his work cut out for him against one of the brightest defensive coordinators in the country in Jim Leonhard.
Leonhard has coached the Badgers to the third-best scoring defense in the Football Bowl Subdivision with just 17.2 points per game allowed in his four seasons at his alma mater. Wisconsin carries the fourth-ranked defense in yards allowed per game (297.9) and the fifth-ranked passing efficiency defense (109) in that time frame. Along with that, the Badgers have generated the second-most turnovers with 104 and intercepted 68 passes, which also ranks second in the nation.
Wisconsin allowed more than 20 points in just two of their seven contests last season. In those seven matchups, the Badgers had a 50.5 completion percentage against them, only allowing 1426 passing yards and 12 passing touchdowns. The rush defense allowed just two touchdowns on the year and teams averaged just 3.3 yards per carry against their defense.
The unit finished ninth in scoring defense (17.43 points per game), fifth in rushing defense (96.14 yards per game allowed), fifth in total defense (299.9 yards per game allowed) and teams averaged just 9.43 first downs per game against them.
Expectations for Wisconsin’s defense are high and rightfully so. Leonhard has taken this team to new heights. Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenal are punishing linebackers, along with Nick Herbig and Noah Burks presenting a pass rushing presence. Safety Scott Nelson with seniors Faion Hicks and Caesar Williams will be a challenging trio to fight through come game time. Of course Leonhard will find ways to get each of them involved.
Yurcich will be an equally formidable opponent on Penn State’s end. His 6.49 yards per play ranks first among offensive coordinators since 2013 and 14.03 yards per completion leads all Power Five offensive coordinators since that time. He’s also averaged 50 points or more 26 times and 40 or more points 51 times in half of his games he’s coached, which also leads FBS offensive coordinators since then — averaging 61.5 touchdowns per season.
Under former Texas head coach Tom Herman, Yurcich led Texas’ offense to a 42.7 points per game stat for the season — ranking eighth in scoring in the FBS, the 16th-ranked passing efficiency (156.2) and 19th in total offense with 475.4 yards per game. Keep in mind that Yurcich has coached up Sam Ehlinger, Justin Fields and Mason Rudolph — all current NFL quarterbacks. Rudolph led the country in passing yards per game in 2017 (377.2).
For all of the weapons that Wisconsin has on the defensive end, Yurcich has tight ends Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson, to pair with wide receivers Parker Washington and Jahan Dotson. Added in with the strong running back group of Noah Cain, John Lovett, Keyvonne Lee, Devyn Ford and Caziah Holmes, the creativity for Penn State’s offense should skyrocket. Expect quick passes and the ability to actually get the tight ends involved.
What a novel idea.
This story was originally published September 1, 2021 at 1:46 PM.
