Penn State football roundtable: What record will the team finish with in 2021? Here are our picks
We’ve made our choices for Penn State football’s MVPs on both sides of the ball and made our picks for the team’s breakout player of the season, but now it’s time to project just how good the Nittany Lions will be in 2021. Coming off a 4-5 record in 2020, will they bounce back to more of the norm under head coach James Franklin?
Let’s take a look at our projections for Penn State’s overall record in 2021.
Jon Sauber: 9-3
I waffled quite a bit on this one. Realistically, Penn State could finish anywhere from 7-5 to 11-1 depending on how good the offense is this season. Playing in Columbus against Ohio State is a virtual lock to be a loss, but every game outside of that one is winnable for the Nittany Lions.
Their final record will depend largely on how they come out of the gates. They open the season with three losable games at Wisconsin, vs. Ball State and vs. Auburn. Now, Wisconsin and Auburn are much easier to lose than against a good but overmatched Ball State team.
I’ll say they handle business against the Cardinals and split their games against Wisconsin and Auburn, likely beating Auburn. From there, speed bumps against Indiana in Beaver Stadium and on the road against Iowa will get in the way of a major win streak heading into the game against Ohio State later in the season. I’ll say that means beating the Hoosiers at home but falling on the road to the Hawkeyes, with the team’s final loss coming against the Buckeyes.
Winning nine games might disappoint some, but I’d say it’s a pretty good result considering the questions surrounding the team.
Kyle J. Andrews: 10-2
The belief is that with Mike Yurcich’s offensive philosophy, the Nittany Lions can get the ball out quickly and get more weapons involved. Sean Clifford should have an easier job of distributing the ball to Brenton Strange, Theo Johnson, Parker Washington and especially Jahan Dotson. Along with the quartet of receivers are the running backs in Noah Cain, John Lovett, Keyvonne Lee, Devyn Ford and Caziah Holmes — all players who can wear down a front seven in a number of different ways. Add in an offensive line that should be a more cohesive unit with more practice time and now you’re cooking.
Penn State should be a wrecking crew on the defensive side of the ball. While some see the defensive line as the one area of potential issue with the injury to Adisa Issac, Arnold Ebeketie, Nick Tarburton and hybrid linebacker/defensive end Jesse Luketa should be strong. Defensive tackles P.J. Mustipher and Fred Hansard are the real deal. Added in with linebackers Curtis Jacobs, Ellis Brooks and Brandon Smith, to go with a secondary that should be one of the best in the country, defensive coordinator Brent Pry has a good opportunity to have a top-15 defensive unit in the nation.
Josh Moyer: 9-3
With last season’s surprising freefall and this year’s new offensive coordinator in Mike Yurcich, there’s plenty of questions and intrigue for the 2021 season. But I’m choosing to be relatively optimistic here with nine offensive starters returning and a defensive back-seven that should be markedly improved.
It doesn’t help that the Nittany Lions’ toughest Big Ten opponents — Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin — are all on the road. But the cupboard is far from bare in Happy Valley, and there is talent for PSU to make a legitimate run at the Big Ten title. The problem? This team’s potential will be capped by the ability of QB Sean Clifford ... which is why I’m not predicting double-digit wins. Still, if anyone can lift him out of last year’s struggles, it’s Yurcich. It should be an interesting September.
Lauren Muthler: 9-3
It seems like a pretty safe bet to pick Penn State to have a better season than last year. But it’s hard to be too high on the Nittany Lions with 4-5 still hanging in the air.
Working in the Nittany Lions’ favor are matchups against Auburn, Indiana and Michigan at home in front of a packed Beaver Stadium. On the flip side, Penn State will be up against substantial challenges on the road at Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa.
All eyes are on No. 19 Penn State at No. 12 Wisconsin on Saturday. While the Nittany Lions are a slight underdog, this is a winnable game for them. However, Penn State has a history of getting its seasons off to slower starts (see 2020, scares against Buffalo and Pitt in 2019, the OT win over Appalachian State in 2018, the big losses to Pitt and Michigan during the Big Ten Championship year in 2016, etc.).
If the Nittany Lions lose on Saturday, they’ll have to quickly put the defeat behind them. If not, they risk another 0-3 start with tough matchups with Auburn and Ball State up next. But with what should be an improved offense with Mike Yurcich at the helm and more time to prepare, Penn State should be able to make adjustments and bounce back.
Penn State is likely to drop at least one of Indiana at home or Iowa on the road. But after what happened last year, it’s hard to imagine the Nittany Lions haven’t had Oct. 2 circled on their calendar for awhile now.
With Ohio State being the obvious exception, Penn State should be able to take care of business with the rest of its opponents.
If the Nittany Lions can put together nine wins, it should be considered a successful season.
Derek Heid: 9-3
Penn State has every reason to believe that they can and will improve from what had happened last year, but making the playoffs is still a high bar for these Nittany Lions to reach.
The Big 10 schedule is not looking friendly for James Franklin’s squad, who must play a majority of their toughest games on the road, a struggling point for Penn State who has a mere 5-4 record in away games over the past two seasons. On top of that, the last time the Nittany Lions went undefeated on the road was 2009.
Starting the season against a tough team like Wisconsin is also going to be an extremely difficult ask for the team, since over the last three years they have struggled in the first game of the season with the exception of destroying FCS Idaho.
The other two games over that time were both overtime thrillers against then unranked teams, one ending in a nail-biting victory over Appalachian State and the other being the loss last year to Indiana.
For these reasons, it would not be unlikely to see three losses on the road against Wisconsin the opening week, Ohio State on Halloween weekend, and either Iowa or Maryland, since both schools got the better of Penn State last season.
This story was originally published September 2, 2021 at 9:00 AM.
